Pertemps Final 2018

[kinloch brae]

Which is exactly my only worry Ista! KB... I suppose it made sense as a prep as it was not going to do his mark any harm and gave them more options.

The jockey booking and ride would suggest they were just trying to qualify.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

The jockey booking and ride would suggest they were just trying to qualify.

I agree kb. Not trying to find negatives as he really stands out to me in the race, as I said. Just trying to temper it with the potential worries I have. It's a tough race for a novice I think. But he's had plenty of experience this season as you say.

You could also argue the jockey booking was to give the lad a go on the horse before the Martin Pipe.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I think better ground and a decent pace is exactly what he wants. Off that I will be disappointed he doesn't jump as well as anything the field and I think he will have more than enough experience. The slow pace in the qualifier didn't suit at all and he pulled much too hard. It isn't a great renewal of the race either.

I'm not sure what the 5yo form is like in the race (could have a host of good place performances) but I know there's only been one winner of that age (Pragada, 1988), and whilst we all know trends do break occasionally they are built up over many years so there has to be something in the 30 year drought.

The fact he is also a month shy of his fifth birthday would only increase concern.
I remember we had the same discussion last year with Genie in a Bottle in the 4 miler who was short of his 6th birthday by a couple of months when the tapes went up...

 

[kinloch brae]

My approach is mainly intuitive and for me it is all about assessing the individual horse. For that reason I rarely gives stats a second look and I won't be looking here. If people don't think he can win purely because he is a 5yo that's up to them. I would spin the positive and suggest he has more improvement in him than any of the others. I often think that sometimes when people miss a price they then do everything to convince themselves they have done the right thing. If you offered someone 33/1 Delta Work would they bite your hand off or say he has no chance because he is 5yo?

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Each to their own KV, and as someone who opposed Master Minded and Moscow Flyer on age alone I know trends can lead you down the wrong path, I use them now to build a profile of what's needed to win a specific race and, as I said, no winner under 6yo for 30 years is enough to put me off but I completely respect this isn't an approach everyone follows...

 

[ComplyOrDie]

My approach is mainly intuitive and for me it is all about assessing the individual horse. For that reason I rarely gives stats a second look and I won't be looking here. If people don't think he can win purely because he is a 5yo that's up to them. I would spin the positive and suggest he has more improvement in him than any of the others. I often think that sometimes when people miss a price they then do everything to convince themselves they have done the right thing. If you offered someone 33/1 Delta Work would they bite your hand off or say he has no chance because he is 5yo?

Just had a look at Delta Work, and have gone in 1pt e/way to make that now 4 bets for this race so far!

One other who I am also interested in at a big price is Dell Arca, currently 50/1 (without NRNB) but looks well in with a few of these based on previous hurdles form at this level. He got qualified early for the race back in October/November and since then has been given hopeless tasks over distances too short and his latest run over fences, he hadn't run over fences for nearly 2 1/2 years, so I presume this was to keep him race ready and to keep his mark down. It wouldn't be the first time connections had a big winner at the festival.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I've just had a look through the past few years and how 5 year olds have fared:

2017 - No runners
2016 - 1 runner (12th at 28/1)
2015 - 2 runners (5th at 25/1 and 16th at 12/1)
2014 - No runners
2013 - No runners
2012 - 1 runner (4th at 33/1)
2011 - 2 runners (2nd at 16/1 and 6th at 25/1)

From a very small sample size, I'd say that's a positive for their chances overall. Certainly not a reason to dismiss them out of hand for me anyway. In 2011 and 2012, only three runners garnered two places and a sixth.

Glad I looked as it's made me a bit firmer on Delta Work :very_drunk:

 

[Kevloaf]

Just had a look at Delta Work, and have gone in 1pt e/way to make that now 4 bets for this race so far!

One other who I am also interested in at a big price is Dell Arca, currently 50/1 (without NRNB) but looks well in with a few of these based on previous hurdles form at this level. He got qualified early for the race back in October/November and since then has been given hopeless tasks over distances too short and his latest run over fences, he hadn't run over fences for nearly 2 1/2 years, so I presume this was to keep him race ready and to keep his mark down. It wouldn't be the first time connections had a big winner at the festival.

Dell Arca...

David Pipe is still looking for success in the race named in honour of his father’s achievements as a trainer, but Dell’Arca takes the eye having been eased down the weights by the requisite 4lb to get in to the Martin Pipe off the ceiling 145 mark.

He has two ways of running, but seasoned Pipe followers will know that the good way is more likely than the bad way when the Festival comes around.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Dell Arca...

David Pipe is still looking for success in the race named in honour of his father’s achievements as a trainer, but Dell’Arca takes the eye having been eased down the weights by the requisite 4lb to get in to the Martin Pipe off the ceiling 145 mark.

He has two ways of running, but seasoned Pipe followers will know that the good way is more likely than the bad way when the Festival comes around.

Sorry had a moment there... was thinking he wasn't eligible :sleeping:

66/1 is a fairly healthy price kev. Don't need much on to take the chance!

 

[Kevloaf]

I've just read that Forza Milan is weighted to reverse the placings with Louis Vac Pouch and The Organist on both their respective wins over Forza Milan...

He's only 14/1 but has a very similar profile to Holywell for Jonjo O'Neill... rising in the weights despite not winning. Didn't stop Holywell though...

What it doesn't mention though is that he's been pulled out before on good ground, so looks very much to favour soft.

He's only 14/1 which means he isn't exactrly a lurker in the market...but I've put him on the shortlist should we have "soft" ground on the day

 

[SeanRock]

Have covered Le Breuil now for this after reading BP's latest newsletter.

"LE BREUIL a horse that we have always believed could be a graded horse and to be honest we hope he shows this as his season has been a bit chequered. He is great fettle and we hope that he shows what a classy individual we know he is. He is also in the Pertemps handicap hurdle which we will have to give some serious thought"

 

[Folski]

I've been looking at this and in the last few years there has been some horses who have been off 100+ days in advance of this, this gives the impression that connections are trying to keep the mark they are obviously happy with.

2017 - For Good Measure 10/1 138 9th beat 15L *was off 97 days close enough for me
2017 - The Tourard Man 66/1 140 4th beat 10L
2017 - Golden Doyen 18/1 143 12th beat 23L
2016 - Our Kaempfar 9/1 139 5th beat 3L
2016 - Missed Approach 8/1 143 PU
2015 - Henryville 50/1 152 4th beat 2.5L won the Aintree version
2014 - On The Bridge 16/1 140 6th beat 3.75L

2 places from 7 runners, ironically the 2 biggest price horses of the 7 qualifiers. A big worry for LVP fans would be that Philip Hobbs had 2 qualifiers last year and both were well beat.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

I’ll be on Le Breuil in whichever of the two he runs in.

I always look for a graded horse in a Handicap for Cheltenham. Found Road to Respect like that last year in his race. I expect Le Breuil to run at a decent standard when he finally clicks into gear. He’s had a few issues but the vibes are very good from Pauling for him for Cheltenham and I really rate his chances.

He and Theinval in the Grand Annual are my two bets handicap hopes. Not that I bet antepost on the Cheltenham handicaps. Too hard working out what races they go to usually.

 

[Bayoffreedom]

Gone back in on LVP & The Organist 1pt e/way on the pair tonight.

The more I look at this race, the more The Organist appeals. She is very closely weighted with both LVP and Forza Milan and will be well suited by the ground (as long as it's not heavy) A couple of things stand out for me: first, her win over Forza Milan was ultimately cozy despite being given an awful lot to do coming down the home straight and seemingly out of it after two out; the stamina test of the New course will suit her well. Secondly, her form at Cheltenham, despite not having won there, is actually pretty good. She would have won easily against Katie Too but for falling when clear at the last and she was badly impeded coming to the last behind Midnight Tour last April. She is is the sort of horse who will come with one long grinding run and the long run to the last will be a tremendous benefit to her.
She had to win her race at Newbury to get the rating to be sure of getting into this race and the Warwick run was just about qualifying. 16/1 looks a very tempting price.
Now......just watch her go and run in the Coral!

 

[doctorwu]

The more I look at this race, the more The Organist appeals. She is very closely weighted with both LVP and Forza Milan and will be well suited by the ground (as long as it's not heavy) A couple of things stand out for me: first, her win over Forza Milan was ultimately cozy despite being given an awful lot to do coming down the home straight and seemingly out of it after two out; the stamina test of the New course will suit her well. Secondly, her form at Cheltenham, despite not having won there, is actually pretty good. She would have won easily against Katie Too but for falling when clear at the last and she was badly impeded coming to the last behind Midnight Tour last April. She is is the sort of horse who will come with one long grinding run and the long run to the last will be a tremendous benefit to her.
She had to win her race at Newbury to get the rating to be sure of getting into this race and the Warwick run was just about qualifying. 16/1 looks a very tempting price.
Now......just watch her go and run in the Coral!

Music to my ears. I went and backed her as soon as I saw BG give here that patient ride. Ive got Genloe & A Great View at big prices as well for this race. You could say I'm all in on JPs horses:highly_amused:
She can't run in the Coral can she??????

 

[doctorwu]

BOF,
It'll be interesting to see which one Barry chooses. I hope we get the red cap

 

[charlie]

I like Sort It Out @ 12's. Having been off for a year and a half he has raced over fences against the likes of Petit Mouchoir, Footpad and Al Boum Photo, where he failed to impress on each occasion. He then ran in the Pertemps Network Group Handicap Hurdle where he kept on well to finish 3rd. I was impressed with the way he ran and he looked to enjoy reverting back to hurdles and stepping up in trip. This race produced both pertemps winners in the last two year in Presenting Percy (4th) and Mall Dini (3rd). I like this and he showed real promise before his injury finishing 2nd in the County Handicap Hurdle and then beating subsequent Galway Hurdle winner Clondaw Warrior who is now rated 155. People talk about McManus plot jobs and I think this could potentially be one of them. Hasn't crept under the radar by any means but you can still get 12's and i think he will shorten on the day.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Racingpost podcast mentioned that Daryl Jacob has a that Callet Mad runs here.:very_drunk:

Has a serious chance.

 

[Garrison Savannah]

Racingpost podcast mentioned that Daryl Jacob has a that Callet Mad runs here.:very_drunk:

Has a serious chance.

Good news for those on Any Race tickets @ 33s

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Good news for those on Any Race tickets @ 33s

I'm sure Billy will prefer him lining up in this, rather than the potato race