Novice Hurdlers 2027

[Eggs]

Time to open this one up.

 

[Yosser]

Witches Familiar is out in about an hour at Gowran if anyone was looking to get her onside for the Mares Novices' Hurdle. Stand out 14/1 at Hills. She is currently 8/15 on to get the job done today. Looks a nice one even this early out.

I've taken a bit of the daft El Cairos money for the Champion Hurdle whilst I was at it. Bit of a bet to nothing.

 

[Eggs]

Witches Familiar is out in about an hour at Gowran if anyone was looking to get her onside for the Mares Novices' Hurdle. Stand out 14/1 at Hills. She is currently 8/15 on to get the job done today. Looks a nice one even this early out.

I've taken a bit of the daft El Cairos money for the Champion Hurdle whilst I was at it. Bit of a bet to nothing.

…Witches 20-1 WTAF (MNH) with Hills. PP offer 150-1 El Cairos WTAF.

 

[Guinness Village]

Witches Familiar is out in about an hour at Gowran if anyone was looking to get her onside for the Mares Novices' Hurdle. Stand out 14/1 at Hills. She is currently 8/15 on to get the job done today. Looks a nice one even this early out.

I've taken a bit of the daft El Cairos money for the Champion Hurdle whilst I was at it. Bit of a bet to nothing.

I’ve had an interest in witches. Also in a ricci double with chic me.

 

[Yosser]

…Witches 20-1 WTAF (MNH) with Hills. PP offer 150-1 El Cairos WTAF.

Prefer the each way money on WF. There is some strong competition in that division. She likes decent ground so she could well come out today and get the job done and not be seen again until the spring

 

[Yosser]

Very impressive. That wasn't a bad little race and she booted them into touch as though she was a 1/6 on shot. Happy with that. She's good.

Bookies have acted accordingly. Now joint fav

 

[Eggs]

Very impressive. That wasn't a bad little race and she booted them into touch as though she was a 1/6 on shot. Happy with that. She's good.

Bookies have acted accordingly. Now joint fav

….Witches Familiar into a best 8-1 MNH with Hills, 33-1 Supreme also with Hills.

 

[Istabraq]

Very impressive. That wasn't a bad little race and she booted them into touch as though she was a 1/6 on shot. Happy with that. She's good.

Bookies have acted accordingly. Now joint fav

Massive standard bookie overreaction for me, as impressive as she was she beat a bunch of exposed horses.
Also strange for Mullins to be sending a good one out so early....

 

[Prestbury]

Massive standard bookie overreaction for me, as impressive as she was she beat a bunch of exposed horses.
Also strange for Mullins to be sending a good one out so early....

Willie has now won this grade 3 novice hurdle 11 times out of the last 12 years. Generally his winners have tended to be "good" horses rather than "superstars". He did however win it with Penhill back in 2016 who went on to win the Albert Bartlett that season. Witches Familar beat a 125 rated horse by 10 lengths (easily) with a 120 rated horse a further half length behind. To put this in context some of his other winners had beaten horses rated around the 140s. For context here are Willie's previous winners together with the RPR they received in the race and their performance at the Festival if running:

2025 Love Me Tender (RPR142) - missed Festival
2024 Gaucher (124) - missed Festival
2023 Wiliamstowndancer (133) - missed Festival
2022 Champ Kiely (141) - 3rd in Turners
2021 Purple Mountain (124) - missed Festival
2020 Shewearsitwell (148) - missed Festival
2018 Quick Grabim (146) - missed Festival
2017 Sayar (133) - missed Festival
2016 Penhill (140) - 1st in Albert Bartlett
2015 Bachasson (148) - UR (probably would have finished about 5th) in Albert Bartlett

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

Thats very good data for context. We all tend to get a bit carried away at this stage of the season looking for "the one". Thanks.

 

[Yosser]

True, I would like to see what mark she got for that though. Switch From Diesel is rated 125 and she gave her about a 20lbs hammering

 

[Lobos]

True, I would like to see what mark she got for that though. Switch From Diesel is rated 125 and she gave her about a 20lbs hammering

She will comfortably beat the average rating of Previous MNH runners based on their seasonal debuts but you have to think that Willie has several at home better than her.

He hasn't managed to win the race in each of the last 6 seasons though so maybe best to look elsewhere anyway.

Henry has won it twice in that time. We maybe should be looking at what he has.

 

[Prestbury]

True, I would like to see what mark she got for that though. Switch From Diesel is rated 125 and she gave her about a 20lbs hammering

If rating through Switch From Diesel (gave 1lb) you could probably get to a rating of 140. However, SFD only just beat Minella Hollow in 3rd who was giving her 3lb and is rated 5lb lower and only beat 110 rated Goeasyonme in 4th by 4 lengths from whom she was also receiving 3lb. Rating through the 3rd and 4th would give a rating nearer 130. Witches Familiar did though beat Mino Des Mottes (5th) by 6.5 lengths further than last time on 4lb worse terms. All told this would indicate a rating in the mid 130s depending on how much they rate ease of victory.

Even at an RPR in the mid 130s this would give a rating to be competitive in an average Dawn Run. In the last 8 renewals, there have been 5 winnings RPRs in the 130s (White Noise (133), Air Of Entitlement (137), Golden Ace (139), Love Envoi (138), Eglantine Du Seuil (138)).

For reference there have only been 12 pre race RPRs higher than 140 for runners in the Dawn Run since inception, as follows:

Laurina (150) - 1st
Marias Benefit (148) - 4th
Lets Dance (146) - 1st
Smart Talk (145) - 13th
Concertista (143) - 1st
Jade De Grugy (143) - 1st
Airlie Beach (142) - 14th
Brighterdaysahead (142) - 2nd
Luccia (142) - 4th
Limini (141) - 1st
Minella Melody (141) - 18th
Posh Trish (141) - 8th

 

[Lobos]

David Casey on Witches.....

"There is a good gap between here and the Royal Bond, so that is a possibility and, long term, you'd be thinking about the Mares' Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham. She has been running on good ground, but was with us all last winter and had no issues with our heavy all-weather gallop, so I'm hoping she'll be fine on soft."

 

[Runragged]

I'm wary on Witches Familiar win. Time not great, Switch From Diesel having first run for over 100 days and yard form not great. 3rd fav has run below par and only 5 lengths covered the 2nd to 5th. She has been kept to decent ground so far so clearly feel there is a preference. Saying that, she has still quickened clear in a nice manner and we don't know the limits of her abilities. I'd be in no hurry to back her at current prices though.

 

[Istabraq]

Willie has now won this grade 3 novice hurdle 11 times out of the last 12 years. Generally his winners have tended to be "good" horses rather than "superstars".

Of course, it's a G3 race and you need to be smart to win them, even the weak ones.
I did check Mullins mares nov hurdle record over recent years and after a period of total domination it's not a race he looks to target these days, the UK based trainers seem to have been in charge more recently.
Your excellent data is very useful, but what stands out for me is how few of those winners make it to Cheltenham, I'm sure there are some unfortunate injuries in that list but there will also be a few who weren't up to winning festival races.
I could be way off but I try hard not to get carried away with impressive early season performances, March is a long way off...

 

[Yosser]

Plenty of debate going on here about Witches Familiar great to see to be fair. There are loads of variables we can hark back to and potentially foresee. I said before she raced, she was 14/1, in a race which she should win and would be cut and probably wants the good ground so might not be seen again until the spring. All of that happened and I thought she looked quite good (imo) I'm happy to get her onside though even though (I do concede) it's very early for that kind of division. Getting the value is the name of the game and this one was a bit of an open net. Let me ask you this, if she was still 14/1, would you back her now?

Maughreen put everyone off this race

 

[Prestbury]

Of course, it's a G3 race and you need to be smart to win them, even the weak ones.
I did check Mullins mares nov hurdle record over recent years and after a period of total domination it's not a race he looks to target these days, the UK based trainers seem to have been in charge more recently.
Your excellent data is very useful, but what stands out for me is how few of those winners make it to Cheltenham, I'm sure there are some unfortunate injuries in that list but there will also be a few who weren't up to winning festival races.
I could be way off but I try hard not to get carried away with impressive early season performances, March is a long way off...

I am in the same place. My view is that if Willie brings them out early then he doesn't think they are superstars. Every now and then he himself will be pleasantly surprised (e.g. Penhill) but I can not believe that when Penhill was introduced at Tramore in May and then progressed to Killarney, Galway and Listowel over the summer that Willie had any inkling that he would be winning at The Festival (and it did take a 1m step up in trip to do so after getting hammered in the Royal Bond).

 

[Prestbury]

I did check Mullins mares nov hurdle record over recent years and after a period of total domination it's not a race he looks to target these days, the UK based trainers seem to have been in charge more recently.

I still think Willie targets this race, its just that there is now a lot more competition from other stables with better class mares than there were in the early days of this event - he is no longer the only one sourcing the best and most expensive fillies/mares. In the last 6 years Willie has had Dinoblue, Jade De Grugy and Bambino Fever go off very short. In fact the combined odds of all his runners each year per below is very short in the context of this race - I still think he is the starting point for this race.

2021 : 4 runners - combined BSP odds of 2/1
2022 : 6 runners - combined odds of 8/13
2023 : 2 runners - combined odds of 5/1
2024 : 1 runners - odds of 9/4
2025 : 7 runners - combined odds of 10/3
2026 : 6 runners - combined odds of 8/11

 

[Guinness Village]

Will even tho go novice hurdling or stay in bumpers and pick up those valuable mares races ?