Novice Chasers 2027

[Yosser]

I have got a few more done in the last few weeks.

tried a 6 teamer yesterday and got done on the last game. Utrecht v Zwolle, 1-1, and then my last coupon of the day without a roll up attached to it, another 6 fold, pissed in

I am trying one today with the winnings for what its worth. Just a bit of a wild one. 6 teams low stakes for a bit of fun

Plzen v Pardubice
Midjtland v Lyngby
Crystal Palace Women v Chelsea Women
Havelse v Saarbrucken
Bremer v Hamburger SV II
Mjallby v Hammarby

I am only doing low stakes because the chances of landing one with 6 on it are slim as i found out yesterday

Scratched Bremer and Chelsea women games. Not on the machine so a 4 fold

 

[Runragged]

He wouldn't win a champion hurdle if he started now. All out to beat Lord Byron is probably 20lb below CH form. Obviously could improve, albeit I'm not sure he'll do so for a fence on pedigree, but he has a fair way to go. Hard to understate how bad those middle distance novice hurdlers were last season for me. I think KRG will start over 2m over fences but I wouldn't be mad keen that he ends up top class.

I've said this before (I think?) but the ballymore / neptune / whatever they call it now is a weird race too that produces weird horses imo. Feels like the horses that run well in it end up slightly tripless. You have to stay but also quicken given how the race is run - you'd think it produces superstars but more often than not they just end up not staying well enough for the big staying races, and also not being quick enough for 2m races. It took them a while to work out Bob O for example just needed 3m on good ground where he can creep into it. Ballyburn had the same issue afterwards too, I think The New Lion will go the same way.

You can't base KRG on a line through one horse. Lord Byron was in great form at the end of last season and is clearly not in the same place currently.

What is fact is that KRG followed up his win in the Turners by winning another grade 1. The 2nd hasn't raced but the third won a grade 1 whilst the 6th beat the 4th in another grade 1 (Lord Byron was 4th beaten 6 1/2 lengths suggesting either Lord Byron continued to improve or that KRG was below par still at Punchestown). We haven't seen the 5th out either. That form couldn't look any stronger in the novice division. Whether they train on and where they go will remain to be seen but as of the end of last season it looks very good.

As to how good those middle distance novices were, we shall see in time. My assumption was that the 4yos were decent and it tied in nicely with the form. The only real link we have was through the 2m novice at the DRF where Talk The Talk then disappointed in the Supreme. However, Ballyfad disappointed in the Turners also, though he bounced back with his 3rd at Aintree behind Bossman Jack and Soldier Reeve. Maybe the best argument for you is through Koktail Brut, who was beaten 6 1/2 lengths at Leopardstown, but then was only a 13 1/2 length 8th in the Supreme, despite a higher RPR and then followed up in a grade 2 at Fairyhouse over 2 miles (Was probably over the top by his last run at Punchestown). Personally, my instinct was the Supreme was suspect. Three British horses involved in a tight finish doesn't scream it is form that is strong and will stand up. I could well be wrong though. The Irish challenge in the race wasn't that strong, El Cairos and Mighty Park lacked experience whilst Talk The Talk was a drifter on the day in the betting. Our best guide will be seeing how Mydaddypaddy and Idaho Sun get on over hurdles in open company.

 

[Quevega]

I think any Cheltenham novice winners that go on to win at Punchestown are worth upgrading, even if the form don't look great.

I'd be pretty sure Willie does little to nothing with his cheltenham winners in between the 2 festivals. He certainly doe not put them through the same as he does pre cheltenham.

His horses that skip Cheltenham have different programmes.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Looking back at the Turners I’m of the opinion that KRG won by his ability to stay well, and AOI lost by his non ability to stay well.
How they fare going chasing is open to question of course, but I’m going with AOI being better suited to 2m and KRG ending up being better suited to 3m.

 

[Yosser]

Not wanting to be controversial but I actually thought that race was quite stacked in terms of the future. I see many graded chasers coming out of that race. But that's just me, might be completely wrong

 

[YoungHustler]

Personally, my instinct was the Supreme was suspect. Three British horses involved in a tight finish doesn't scream it is form that is strong and will stand up. I could well be wrong though. The Irish challenge in the race wasn't that strong, El Cairos and Mighty Park lacked experience whilst Talk The Talk was a drifter on the day in the betting. Our best guide will be seeing how Mydaddypaddy and Idaho Sun get on over hurdles in open company.

Nice to see different views as mine was that the Supreme was the much better race. I just think the English novices were better than the Irish last year and the gap between us and the Irish is narrowing, especially with the Skelton dominance. I thought the Irish had their best novices in the Supreme and they just weren't good enough, although i'm not giving up on Mighty Park. Act Of Innocence came second in the Turners and went there as was considered not as good as Old Park Star. The Turners also had its biggest field for years which to me showed how average it was as opposition is normally scared off if there are one or two top class runners.

 

[Runragged]

Nice to see different views as mine was that the Supreme was the much better race. I just think the English novices were better than the Irish last year and the gap between us and the Irish is narrowing, especially with the Skelton dominance. I thought the Irish had their best novices in the Supreme and they just weren't good enough, although i'm not giving up on Mighty Park. Act Of Innocence came second in the Turners and went there as was considered not as good as Old Park Star. The Turners also had its biggest field for years which to me showed how average it was as opposition is normally scared off if there are one or two top class runners.

It could well be so. On RPR's the race is rated a fair bit higher (156 over 148). I would argue that we don't know if Act Of Innocence was/is not as good as Old Park Star, just OPS had achieved far more prior to the Festival, especially at the minimum trip and the owners didn't want them running against each other, so was the logical choice to make. I don't think AOI can be judged on his failing to stay second in the Turners and would have been fascinating over a strongly run 2m.

As you say, different people see things different ways. The joys of racing and forums like this where we can discuss!

 

[Yosser]

Scratched Bremer and Chelsea women games. Not on the machine so a 4 fold

Pity I couldn't get the other 2 on because they are both already in 4 in, 2 to go later

Got 4 in on another one too, Norrkoping with the saver. Just Liverpool v Brighton for over 2.5 goals. Should have put them all together. I could have been handing my notice in

 

[Lobos]

Looking back at the Turners I’m of the opinion that KRG won by his ability to stay well, and AOI lost by his non ability to stay well.
How they fare going chasing is open to question of course, but I’m going with AOI being better suited to 2m and KRG ending up being better suited to 3m.

Wasn't AOI thought to be a quicker horse than OPS at the beginning of last season? He was shoehorned into the Turners so to split them . Ran really well but agree with you he does look more a 2 miler in those top races. Very interested to see how he runs on debut over the minimum.

 

[Yosser]

After somehow being dry bummed alive without consent by Liverpool v Brighton not getting a 3rd goal and then Hammarby doing my roll up coupon by (yep 1 goal ) I will get back to the matter in hand

Patrick Mullins has put up Kiely's Place as his novice chaser to follow.

Forty Fifty gets his novice hurdles vote

And, Mister Boum is his bumper horse to follow

 

[BigChaang]

After somehow being dry bummed alive without consent by Liverpool v Brighton not getting a 3rd goal and then Hammarby doing my roll up coupon by (yep 1 goal ) I will get back to the matter in hand

Patrick Mullins has put up Kiely's Place as his novice chaser to follow.

Forty Fifty gets his novice hurdles vote

And, Mister Boum is his bumper horse to follow

Plus Kiss Will at the end ... I can see a multi coming on there sometime .. even if it's just to remind him , next time he turns up at Plumpton . .

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Plus Kiss Will at the end ... I can see a multi coming on there sometime .. even if it's just to remind him , next time he turns up at Plumpton . .

 

[Hurricane fly]

Personally, my instinct was the Supreme was suspect. Three British horses involved in a tight finish doesn't scream it is form that is strong and will stand up.

In general my view is that if a novice race is as tight as the Supreme nothing is coming out of it, even more so now the JLT has gone and they are likely to face additional competition as a Novice Chaser.

I would be much more confident in the Turners being the better crop than the Supreme and have been betting in accordance to that.

Really hopeful KRG goes to the Arkle though.

 

[Lobos]

In general my view is that if a novice race is as tight as the Supreme nothing is coming out of it, even more so now the JLT has gone and they are likely to face additional competition as a Novice Chaser.

I would be much more confident in the Turners being the better crop than the Supreme and have been betting in accordance to that.

Really hopeful KRG goes to the Arkle though.

7 lengths between 1st and 10th in Turners though??

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

In general my view is that if a novice race is as tight as the Supreme nothing is coming out of it, even more so now the JLT has gone and they are likely to face additional competition as a Novice Chaser.

I would be much more confident in the Turners being the better crop than the Supreme and have been betting in accordance to that.

Really hopeful KRG goes to the Arkle though.

See your point, but personally I would not be too dogmatic and base my bets this season on that
It is possible that we could see all those close up in the Supreme have a big season

 

[Lobos]

See your point, but personally I would not be too dogmatic and base my bets this season on that
It is possible that we could see all those close up in the Supreme have a big season

Agree. All 3 were well clear of everything else. They could potentially win the Arkle and the Champion Hurdle or they could just be shit as HF says.

 

[archie]

I suppose that going against the orthodoxy is how you can get an edge. However, both OR and RPR rate the Supreme at least 5lb better than the Turners and Henderson clearly has Old Park Star as first choice ahead of Act of Innocence for the Arkle. That would be my view at this stage as well although I don't feel the need to back anything until it gets an entry.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

I suppose that going against the orthodoxy is how you can get an edge. However, both OR and RPR rate the Supreme at least 5lb better than the Turners and Henderson clearly has Old Park Star as first choice ahead of Act of Innocence for the Arkle. That would be my view at this stage as well although I don't feel the need to back anything until it gets an entry.

Im not so sure that Hendo is clear as to which will be best out the two.
I do think both will be chasing over 2m when they get going and they will tell him by their performances.
Fwiw imo it’s 50/50.
Also think had they both ran in the Supreme I would not be confident naming the best placed out the two.

 

[archie]

Im not so sure that Hendo is clear as to which will be best out the two.
I do think both will be chasing over 2m when they get going and they will tell him by their performances.
Fwiw imo it’s 50/50.
Also think had they both ran in the Supreme I would not be confident naming the best placed out the two.

He mentioned the Arkle for OPS but not for AOI, just said that they'd probably be kept apart.

Last season, Timeform had 9lb between the two. so it's pretty much a full house for the pro ratings.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

He mentioned the Arkle for OPS but not for AOI, just said that they'd probably be kept apart.

Last season, Timeform had 9lb between the two. so it's pretty much a full house for the pro ratings.

Yeah he mentioned OPS as he’s a Supreme winner, but saying they will be kept apart don’t mean AOI won’t be running over 2m.
For me he looked to struggle to get home over 2m5, and looks a 2 miler imo.
Winning a Supreme probably entitles the difference in ratings?
I look forward to the horses showing me how good they both are over fences at 2m