Good Blog from Declan Rix
http://drracing.net/ante-post/ant...focus-neptune-novice-hurdle-2013/
The Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle has a pristine roll of honour that includes some of the greats of National Hunt racing. A race for young, up and coming types it’s been a stepping stone on to bigger and better things, for hurdlers and chasers. Not only have past winners like Istabraq and Hardy Eustace returned to score at later festivals, but the likes of Denman and Rock On Ruby, both of whom were runners-up here, too came back to win a Cheltenham Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle, respectively. There’s a fair chance the winner or a couple of those in behind will go on and operate at the very highest level. In terms of stats don’t look any further than five and six year olds. You have to go back as far as 1998 for the last seven-year-old winner and, 1991 was the last four-year-old to score. Since 1998 three seven-year-olds have been placed. In terms of trainers Willie Mullins has to be feared most of all handlers along with the Irish challenge in general.
The 2013 Neptune received 119 entries and a whole host of classy names are in the pot. That’s not surprising given the prestige of the race, along with the intermediate trip too. It gives horses options depending on contrasting ground conditions. A number of those that figure prominently in the Supreme and Albert Bartlett markets are too in here so it makes sense to get rid of highly unlikely and doubtful runners first.
Of those that figure to the fore in the betting Champagne Fever looks like he is Supreme bound. His connections are represented by the hot favourite in Pont Alexandre so unless the latter meets with a setback you can scratch the former from here. The J.P McManus owned At Fishers Cross looks like he’ll run in the Albert Bartlett, if he comes to Cheltenham and so is not considered. Melodic Rendezvous has yet to try a trip remotely in the region of two miles five furlongs and given his pedigree looks quite speedy it would be a massive risk by connections to run here. The Supreme looks his race. Overall, I’m not quite sure he’s good enough anyway. The next five in the market are Un Atout (Supreme), Chatterbox (may skip festival), Defy Logic (well beaten recently), Annie Power (will miss festival) and Ballycasey (Albert Bartlett bound) look highly unlikely they’ll run. After this we really are looking at fancy prices and given the race’s history big prices are not the way to go.
Realistically then we have just five horses to consider. Those being
Pont Alexandre, The New One, Rule The World, Taquin Du Seuil and Puffin Billy. We’ll start with the latter first.
Oliver Sherwood’s Puffin Billy is arguably a little unlucky not to be unbeaten in five career starts. Two bumper and two hurdle events have been won in facile fashion before the son of Heron Island lost his unbeaten tag last time out. Post race he was found to be lame by the on course vet and upon returning home, puss was extracted from his foot. Many will feel its just connections offering excuses for their top prospect getting turned over, but given the ease he came off the bridle, in comparison to previous races, and him jumping to the right up the straight, I think it’s plausible. Before his odds on defeat the handicapper had him down as a 150 horse which I felt was a little bit flattering. The races he has won were all done in good style, but it’s not exactly Grade One form. Jumping wise he is safe in the main, but he can give the top bar a rattle while racing. It’s safe though and no serious error has been recorded. Another thing to note of Puffin Billy is how keen he runs in his races. He can be quite a handful and even a bit buzzy. You’d have to wonder if the whole Cheltenham occasion would suit him. This is something Barry Geraghty has his reservations about. And while his pedigree suggests middle distances will suit the now five-year-old hasn’t raced over the Neptune trip over hurdles. All the above coupled with his recent setback means he’s not a sensible bet. He too, still has a Supreme entry and there must be a small chance of him missing Cheltenham altogether given his recent problems. And so, we’ll move on.
Four remain, two from Great Britain and two from Ireland. Above we singled out Willie Mullins as a trainer to note in this race together with the Irish challenge in general. This year the general part revolves around Mouse Morris who too has good history in the Neptune. Mouse’s last three runners here have finished first, second and fourth and in the confidently named Rule The World he looks to have another strong contender. This son of former top flat operator Sulamani was picked up for €90,000 by Morris who was subsequently sold on to Gigginstown House Stud (A good sign that). A sole win between the Irish flags saw him justify 6-4 favourtism on debut under rules, in a poor Punchestown maiden. It wasn’t a great race, but he was by far the best horse. Then pitched into Grade Three company on the third start of his whole career he showed plenty of ability to just get headed close home where maybe inexperience cost him. A low grade novice event was then won in workmanlike fashion, but to be fair to the horse he beat a 150 rated chaser, giving him weight. He finally started living up to his name when winning the Grade Two Slaney Novice Hurdle on his next start. In the end he won by 16 lengths from a solid yard stick in Minsk, but there is no doubt he’s flattered by the bare performance. The red hot favourite Champagne Fever never ran his race, feeling the effects of an infection, while the second horse, Minsk, took Champagne Fever on very early allowing the race to fall into the lap of Rule The World somewhat. While Minsk is a decent animal given his optimum conditions he certainly isn’t a Grade One or Grade Two horse yet. On the positive side of things though Davy Russell’s intended mount does jump well in the main. He seems to be improving and represents the 2011 winning connections of this race, but I find his form a little hard to weigh up. His pedigree and action, to a certain degree, seem to indicate that soft ground is what he wants so he does have a few questions to answer.
Jonjo O’Neill’s recent history shows him to be a solid trainer of chasers, but in Taquin Du Seuil he’ll be hoping to turn back the hurdling clock by winning his first Grade One hurdle event at the festival since the 2004 Stayers Hurdle. This French import and former flat racer has been one of the finds of the season from the French flat racing scene. A son of Voix Du Nord he had just the one win on the level, but kept decent handicap company in his time in France. I haven’t seen his official flat rating, but it would be somewhere in the region of the early to mid eighties. So, all things considered not a bad animal at all. After a year off the track he managed to win his maiden at Uttoxeter on debut in good style from a regarded horse of Charlie Longsdon’s. A month later he had the impossible task, we now know, of trying to concede a penalty to the current Supreme Novices’ Hurdle favourite, My Tent Or Yours. He gave the Betfair Hurdle victor a race however, but just couldn’t live with his speed close home. Since that run though, he’s gone on to bag a Grade Two at Sandown and a Grade One at Newbury, the Challow Hurdle, in fine style. His Sandown win was a cruise in soft ground while he had to work that bit harder to score, as you would expect, at Newbury. The raw form of his last two wins doesn’t look as solid as the My Tent Or Yours run, but both have been won in good fashion. His jumping throughout has been good although he looked real novicey at stages at Newbury. A little worrying this given it was his latest run. I’m willing to put that down to the terrible ground though as beforehand he has jumped well. Many feel proper soft ground is what he needs, but good to soft spring ground will be fine. The run against My Tent Or Yours was on decent ground and plenty of his French flat form has been on faster flat terrain. His sire’s blood line has a few good to firm flat winners thrown in too so it’s not ground that will beat him at Cheltenham. The stable haven’t confirmed him for this race, but it looks the logical one for him. Is one of the yard’s most interesting runners during the week, no doubt. ..continued...
