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National Hunt Chase (4 miler) 2018

Sirbetalot said:
I can see very few finishers in this if its heavy...
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Yeah, it was a race where a few on some of the preview panels have said they hack round and then finish the last 1 1/2 - 2m strongly, but they'll need to hack round a lot further than normal in heavy ground just to get their horses home I'd imagine.
 
High OR in the 4 miler

Still plenty can change in this race still. Right now Presenting Percy (157) would be top OR if running and would likely win but is RSA bound. Invitation Only (153) and Black Corton (155) go elsewhere. Rathvinden (152) as Scooby highlighted could well end up top rated. Then you have a certain Elegant Escape (150)...come on Colin...do the right thing!
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I can't find the original analysis .... but did find this snippet above, but jono has previously pointed out the superb record that the top rated horse has in the 4 miler. (I will have to try and find as because it explainss the context rather than just the 'trend'

Looking at tomorrow's race

Official ratings
Rathvinden 150 & Mossback 150
Jury Duty 148

On RPR's
Rathvinden 167
Jury Duty 165
Ms Parfois 163

Mossback is 5th in the RPR ratings with 159 and Ms Parfois is 4th in the Official ratings on 146.

Rathvinden comes out on top in both, so I'd 100% want him onside (fortunately my biggest winner already) and Jury Duty is not far behind! Mossback coming in for support isn't a surprise and should be in the mix too.
The one I like that I haven't got, who does well - is Ms Parfois - although not top rated, she's by no means out classed by any of these and I'll be very close to adding her to my book!

The one who is REALLY struggling is No Comment, 4th in the betting, but OR of 145 and RPR of 145 would leave him WELL SHORT. Safe to say he's priced on the jockey and the silks... I'd say that this year is not their year.

Boylesports gave me a £40 free bet, so I'll use that at 8/1 on Ms Parfois:)
 
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Kevloaf said:
I can't find the original analysis .... but did find this snippet above, but jono has previously pointed out the superb record that the top rated horse has in the 4 miler. (I will have to try and find as because it explainss the context rather than just the 'trend'

Looking at tomorrow's race

Official ratings
Rathvinden 150 & Mossback 150
Jury Duty 148

On RPR's
Rathvinden 167
Jury Duty 165
Ms Parfois 163

Mossback is 5th in the RPR ratings with 159 and Ms Parfois is 4th in the Official ratings on 146.

Rathvinden comes out on top in both, so I'd 100% want him onside (fortunately my biggest winner already) and Jury Duty is not far behind! Mossback coming in for support isn't a surprise and should be in the mix too.
The one I like that I haven't got, who does well - is Ms Parfois - although not top rated, she's by no means out classed by any of these and I'll be very close to adding her to my book!

The one who is REALLY struggling is No Comment, 4th in the betting, but OR of 145 and RPR of 145 would leave him WELL SHORT. Safe to say he's priced on the jockey and the silks... I'd say that this year is not their year.
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How could you possibly produce a confident rating for No Comment?

He was making his seasonal debut over a much shorter trip and acquitted himself well. Class wouldn't be a problem for me but I would be concerned about the trip and ground combination. He wouldn't be the only one with those doubts.
 
kinloch brae said:
How could you possibly produce a confident rating for No Comment?

He was making his seasonal debut over a much shorter trip and acquitted himself well. Class wouldn't be a problem for me but I would be concerned about the trip and ground combination. He wouldn't be the only one with those doubts.
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My point is that he hasn't produced a performance so far that is good enough to win this race.

Whatever the reasons are, it's not a positive, and he's priced on his connections not his form.

The doubts you have are there, and he's not got the form in the book.

Easy to oppose if you follow trends.

Acquited himself well? All he showed is that he isn't dreadful. No way you can fancy no comment on anything but jockey.

I took the much bigger price befoe he ran (earlier in this thread) ... my point is that he's too short now based on his form and this trend that seems strong ... despite not liking trends haha
 
What is Pylonthepressure doing at home to make Willie think he wants 4 miles? Furthest he has gone is 2m5f
 
charlie said:
What is Pylonthepressure doing at home to make Willie think he wants 4 miles? Furthest he has gone is 2m5f
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Ricci also said on ATR last night pretty definitively that he thought he would get the trip. Interesting one
 
AnFiieLD. said:
Ricci also said on ATR last night pretty definitively that he thought he would get the trip. Interesting one
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Fair enough. Just seems odd. Might have a very small poke at a big price.
 
Kevloaf said:
My point is that he hasn't produced a performance so far that is good enough to win this race.

Whatever the reasons are, it's not a positive, and he's priced on his connections not his form.

The doubts you have are there, and he's not got the form in the book.

Easy to oppose if you follow trends.

Acquited himself well? All he showed is that he isn't dreadful. No way you can fancy no comment on anything but jockey.

I took the much bigger price befoe he ran (earlier in this thread) ... my point is that he's too short now based on his form and this trend that seems strong ... despite not liking trends haha
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With the stable having a shocking season a 30 length third in a Grade 1 on seasonal and chasing debut is a long way from being dreadful. I would far sooner take 25/1 knowing a horse can actually jump rather than taking a bigger price without knowing. As it is the conditions have gone against him and he will probably drift. I presume as you are so negative you have laid the horse for a profit?
 
kinloch brae said:
With the stable having a shocking season a 30 length third in a Grade 1 on seasonal and chasing debut is a long way from being dreadful. I would far sooner take 25/1 knowing a horse can actually jump rather than taking a bigger price without knowing. As it is the conditions have gone against him and he will probably drift. I presume as you are so negative you have laid the horse for a profit?
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So negative?

I've merely highlighted the trend that says he isn't highest rated ... his price NOW poor.

If you take the time to read through the forum you'll see I backed no comment and would have a 33.25 pt return if the trend is proven wrong this year.

I don't think I can be accused of not backing my opinions or methods to be honest but you can comment how you see fit :highly_amused:
 
Had Sizing Tenn in this and it ran well, but hate front runners.. done a placepot and had the 1st 2nd & 3rd but not a penny on the fc or tric what a knob...

Ended up with a £1.80 place pot hope it pays ok ish... paid out £10.80 and if it pays over £25 quid I will be happyish...
 
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That will do he travelled well throughout and stayed all day. Hope a few others were on. And anyone without a winner. There a plenty of racing left and you've all got good chances.
 
I did think Ms Parfois was going to get there but she was held close home.

No Comment was nursed into contention but didn't stay. I suspect three miles might be his limit. He is quick at his fences which didn't help O'Connor in trying to restrain him.
 
Folski said:
I'll say this again as it is probably lost in the thread.

But I was back in Listowel in September and the girlfriend bumped into an old colleague and was chatting to her for probably the bones of a half hour about shite, so we got delayed leave the racecourse after racing, on the way out I saw a man in a hat that could only have been Willie he stood in for a photo and I asked him for a horse for the festival hoping he would give me the Supreme hot pot for the year, he said I think Rathvinden would have to have a great chance in the 4 miler. I requested odds that day and got 33s.

In addition to that little nugget I will add Willie had the very first parking space at the racecourse, I can only assume he was there before they had even opened the gates and was driving a 2005 5 series BMW, there must be some mileage on that.
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Fair play to Folski for this cracker. Whether you believed him or not about his story (I see a couple of replies, to this and the previous post he noted about Rathvinden that weren't convinced) it was a cracker of a bet, and hope you spend your winnings well mate :)
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Fair play to Folski for this cracker. Whether you believed him or not about his story (I see a couple of replies, to this and the previous post he noted about Rathvinden that weren't convinced) it was a cracker of a bet, and hope you spend your winnings well mate :)
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Yeah great stuff! I seem to recall it was Folski’s comments that persuaded me to take some of the 16s a little while back. Made today a good day - Cheers!!
 
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