I'm not quite sure what to make of The New One for this race...
We've seen with Nichols Canyon last year and also Solwhit in 2013, Inglis Drever in 2005 that horses unproven at the trip and generally 2 mile+ hurdlers and trying 3 miles for the first time can win this race. All were younger though and were proven grade 1 horses, a level which it's proven TNO is just below. It was fantastic to see TNO win yesterday in the manner he did and shows how good the sport is but
you're relying on the step up to 3m trip bridging the gap between that level below top class and top class. The stayers hurdle will always get a bad reputation...failed chasers, poor grade 1 etc but i'd argue take out Cole Harden in 2015 and the last 10 winners have been top grade 1 hurdlers. We could get another 'Cole Harden' year but that is not the norm and TNO falls short from this level even at another trip and at 10 years old.
Although the ground at Haydock has never suited the horse soft ground is fast becoming what he wants so Spring ground will not help and has been another factor imo why he has been found out over the last few Spring festivals.
NTD probably has got the horse in as good a form as of any point in the last 3-4 years. I do have a soft spot for TNO and if I had to pick a horse to win that I hadn't backed it would be him but it's very very hard to see him win and I can see a place at best so 14's best price is too short for me. That said if he is in with a chance well done for anyone who got big prices like the 50/1...:encouragement:
However IF he was to be bang there jumping the last then he has every chance. His problem round Cheltenham and at grade 1 level has generally been the fact he's got outpaced at the crucial part of the race, only to stay on well up the hill so if he can keep tabs on the leaders over the longer trip, where speed isn't as much of a factor then you know he will be finishing well. If you were to compare say L'ami Serge at the same price...I know who i'd favour to come out on top after the last side by side.
La Bague Au Roi I was really impressed with yesterday. I'm surprised Greatrex wasn't more bullish about targeting this race after her Ascot performance considering the talk before the race was if she won well that would be the aim. She could not have done any better! I think she needs 3 miles to be seen at her best so despite on paper the Mares race looking an easier option (bar AJ) I'd say her best chance at the festival would be here. Like TNO I think it's maybe hard to see her winning the race but I can certainly see plenty in her favour for place terms. I think she could potentially hold her own outside of her own sex at this trip and Mares have had a decent record in the race : 9 of the last 18 mares have finished in the top 4 (1 winner, 3 seconds, 2 thirds and 3 fourths). 25/1 (EW) NRNB added straight after the race yesterday
We don't have to wait long to see how Bacardys gets back on over hurdles in the Galmoy Hurdle on Thursday. He's entered along with a few other interesting entries...
Let's Dance - Could be looking to avoid Apple's Jade and go for the Stayers?
Presenting Percy - ?!? No idea on this entry?
Delta Work - I know Scooby fancies him for the Martin Pipe
Can’t be having beer goggles but wouldn’t begrudge them a victory with him after todays news