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National Hunt Chase (4 miler) 2018

Terrific run from Elegant Escape today. They must be very hopeful for the 4miler.
 
Elegant Escape was a length and a half behind in second, some 21 lengths in front of stablemate West Approach.

Trainer Colin Tizzard reflected: "I think that's the best they've run. Elegant Escape found this track very different to Newbury and was flat out all the way, whereas West Approach travelled better and is developing into quite a nice horse. Both will be aimed at the RSA."






Siiiiiiiiiiigh. Oh Colin.... although on Sporting Life ....

"I would think they will both go for the RSA. Elegant Escape is going to be six in a few days and we could think about putting him in the four-miler as well."
 
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Surprised to read the first of your quotes from CT Kev. I thought that he ran the absolutely perfect trial for the Four Miler. Hopefully they see sense!
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Surprised to read the first of your quotes from CT Kev. I thought that he ran the absolutely perfect trial for the Four Miler. Hopefully they see sense!
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I thought the exact same. Tizzard on a mission to put his horses in the wrong races haha
 
A couple of nice performances today in the PP Chase. Squouateur & Anible Fly. Would they take on this race or head down the handicap route?
 
doctorwu said:
A couple of nice performances today in the PP Chase. Squouateur & Anible Fly. Would they take on this race or head down the handicap route?
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Anibale Fly wouldn't qualify unfortunately.
 
Let's hope Colin Tizzard sees sense between now and March!

I don't think West Approach has any real chance in any race at the festival.
Now that Finians Oscar will be tried out over 3 miles

NHC - Elegant Escape
RSA - Finians Oscar

Would be his best chance of a winner in each race
 
Half the battle with winning this race is securing the services of one of the top 5/6 amateur pilots, can Tizzard attract a Codd/Nina/Dentist ?
 
Istabraq said:
Half the battle with winning this race is securing the services of one of the top 5/6 amateur pilots, can Tizzard attract a Codd/Nina/Dentist ?
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He attracted Derek O'Connor for Native River temporarily before he jumped ship for Minella Rocco. I get the impression Derek has an "agreement" with JP in these races so i'd discount him again.

Jamie Codd rode Elegant Escape in the point won by Samcro which could be a help. That said Codd often rides a lot of the horses at the festival early in their point to point careers so no guarantee that will mean much.

Nina - Am I right in thinking she has only been riding out in bumpers this year? She's certainly not been riding the cross country races this season. I imagine she may, this season at least be sticking to flat races?

Legg did ride Native River into second which would be the fallback but as i've always said, ont of the top jockeys would be ideal and really make me confident
 
Who are the best ?

Derek O'Connor - ties with Jonjo and as you say probably rides a JP horse
Dentist - will ride for his Dad
Nina - good point about her rides, maybe she is focusing on bumpers only but if she does ride she'll prob be on a Gordon Elliott horse
Jamie Codd - almost certain to ride for Elliott though Pipe managed to grab him for The Package in the Kim Muir a few years ago
Lisa O'Neill - won for Elliott last year and has been his go to bumper pilot so bound to be booked for this
Katie Walsh - won for Ferdy Murphy a few years back but you'd have to assume she'll have a ride for Mullins
Will Biddick/Zak Baker, who did I miss ?
 
Istabraq said:
Who are the best ?

Derek O'Connor - ties with Jonjo and as you say probably rides a JP horse
Dentist - will ride for his Dad
Nina - good point about her rides, maybe she is focusing on bumpers only but if she does ride she'll prob be on a Gordon Elliott horse
Jamie Codd - almost certain to ride for Elliott though Pipe managed to grab him for The Package in the Kim Muir a few years ago
Lisa O'Neill - won for Elliott last year and has been his go to bumper pilot so bound to be booked for this
Katie Walsh - won for Ferdy Murphy a few years back but you'd have to assume she'll have a ride for Mullins
Will Biddick/Zak Baker, who did I miss ?
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Missed Patrick Mullins but obviously he isn't a consideration either....

Codd on Fagan / Jury Duty
Katie Walsh for Presenting Percy? (rode Mall Dini for connections?)
Dentist on Impulsive Star

I can't see a really likely JP runner yet? I think Derek or Katie Walsh are getable at this stage... unless I'm missing an obvious JP horse?!If I am it is probably worth a punt?

Maybe JP will get his cheque book out
 
See PP and BFSB have cut Elegent Escape to 10/1 today for this from 16s. Anyone think this is significant?
 
I'm not sure PP will have a line into the Tizzard stable, but they may know that one of the top Irish amateurs has been asked to ride.

I'm purely speculating btw
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
See PP and BFSB have cut Elegent Escape to 10/1 today for this from 16s. Anyone think this is significant?
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I'd like to think so! As FM says, unlikely to be with Tizzard but hopefully an announcement is coming and O'Connor is booked
 
Interesting point about the potential jockey booking, fingers crossed. I've backed him for both but main bets on this race at some nice prices
 
Here's hoping...though I think it's very very early still for jockey bookings. Jamie Codd was announced by Noel Meade on A Genie in Abottle on February 13th last season, Feb 26th was when Tizzard announced O'Connor was to ride Native River.

Mid February would be the earliest i'd expect jockey bookings to start being announced for this race myself. Jamie Codd still hadn't confirmed 100% his ride in March and we know O'Connor switched so even then they could change. Of course there could be Gentelmen agreements made long before that we aren't aware of.

Delighted if that is the case though and the price cut can only be a bonus too particularly as the RSA is still a possibility
 
Fair point Joni, there's plenty of blue on oddschecker so looks like something is afoot
 
In regards to a likely JP runner - how about Any Second Now?

Only quoted in 2 places - 20/1 with both Bet365 and SkyBet. With Ted Walsh training the horse there could be an argument that Paddy Power not quoting could mean he's doubtful to run here (with links between the 2 with Ruby) but he's the only one I can think of right now. Connections declined running at the festival last year, deciding instead to take their time with the horse as chasing was always going to be his game. He's run in some hot chases this year behind Monalee (20F), Footpad (17F) and Invitation Only (20F) just finding one too good but running very creditably in defeat. He's stayed on well on both goes at the intermediate trip suggesting that at least 3 miles wouldn't be a worry and the fact they think he could be a national horse one day is a bonus. If they don't bypass the festival again, the way connections protected the horse last year mean they may look at targeting this race over the RSA or JLT.

Being a JP horse it's likely O'Connor would continue the partnership, otherwise you'd expect Katie Walsh to be a shoe in so you'd have to be confident on a good jockey booking if he does line up.
 
Not a big enough price to warrent a bet with no more than speculation but certainly one to keep an eye on....

Not that the jockeys would be the same, but Finian's RSA / Elegant Escape 4 miler is best priced 272/1 which is pretty big if they will be split up?
 
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