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National Hunt Chase (4 miler) 2018

Not a race I'm particularly interested in from a betting angle currently but Jono, You certainly put a good case forward. May have a nibble at 50's, would hate to miss out on such a price for a horse that is thought well of at home (just re-watched the Tizzard interview), from a particularly strong yard.

On the other side, Debeca doesn't interest me in the slightest. I'm not sure what profile we should be looking at in terms of the winner, as I haven't had a look into it too much, but as much as of an achievement it was for Tim Vaughan to finally have a Cheltenham winner, that is one thing, it's completely trying to achieve a festival winner!

As much as I respect the trainer in the NH scene I do feel he generally lacks big winners. I don't see that changing any time soon.
 
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I think the parallel between Native River and Elegant Escape, coupled with the comments mean you've found a VERY likely shortner in the market there jono. I don't need much convincing at 50/1 but that is a very strong and well thought out case and I have followed you in with 0.5 pts each way.... I could easily see that increasing before he runs again though
 
jono said:
Jamie Codd rode the horse in his PTP (behind Samcro) and had this to say at the start of last season:



Jamie Codd will want to be on the best horse in the race but the fact he did ride the horse in his PTP and had good things to say means there is a chance he may end up linking up if Elegant Escape is one of the main contenders for the race. Although he has often teamed up with Gordon Elliott, he showed last year by choosing AGenieinabottle for Noel Meade that it's not a given. Unlike my concerns with Debece, i'm also confident that Tizzard could persuade one of the top jockeys to get the ride, particularly with his stock being a a career high these last few years. Derek O'Connor famously switched to Minella Rocco but he had initially agreed to ride Native River.
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Worst case I think we end up with Michael Legg on board, who seems to ride quite a few for the Tizzards and isn't the worst jockey to have on board, albeit he is no Codd or O'Connor.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Worst case I think we end up with Michael Legg on board, who seems to ride quite a few for the Tizzards and isn't the worst jockey to have on board, albeit he is no Codd or O'Connor.
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Yeah Legg rode Native River in the race to finish second so I wouldn't be too downbeat if that's the case. Now she is back riding I assume we can add Nina Carberry back into the mix as well this year :encouragement: EE and Mia's storm pulled 11 lengths clear of the rest of the field that day. I think Mia's Storm could be solid chaser and Mr Mix who was third that day has since gone onto win as well.

On Debece - don't get me wrong I don't actually think now just because Vaughan has got a winner it improves the horses chances (or any of his others at the festival). I do think however it may well change his thinking if he was to have to weigh up between say this race and the RSA. I do like the horse though, I think he showed plenty of promise last year though and showed he handled the course. I expect and his pedigree suggest long stamina sapping trips to be his forte so I 4 miles round Cheltenham I think could suit very well.

BUT My main criteria for the race over the last few years has been jockey bookings and the horse(s) with the highest OR and In truth Debece will likely have neither. Of the two, particularly as he is the bigger price at 50/1 I think Elegant Escape is far more appealing.
 
Ballyoptic is now the fav for this race after beating Elegant Escape today ... 20/1 best price (also 25/1 best price RSA and cut to 12/1 with Lad?!)

I'll leave it up to jono to assess, but Nigel Twister had a 4-timer today, his horses are in fine form and March is a long way away... but the mistake 3 out for Elegant Escape probably wasn't the only reason he got beat today...
 
Interesting to look at NTD's stats over the last few years. October is his most successful month although he's ok in December and March. Just a possibility that he gets his going earlier than some and makes hay while the sun shines. The December and March figures indicate that he's pretty good at maximising his best horses but I wouldn't be inclined to go overboard about early season success. I'd prefer to see a December follow up before backing for the spring.
 
Kevloaf said:
I'll leave it up to jono to assess, but Nigel Twister had a 4-timer today, his horses are in fine form and March is a long way away... but the mistake 3 out for Elegant Escape probably wasn't the only reason he got beat today...
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Yeah NTD has his runners in red hot form, as he often does early in the season. I'd be suprised if Ballyoptic was to run in this race, unless he gets put in his place later on in the year. In quick glance I struggle to see NTD's other options in the RSA. He is a bullish trainer who rarely backs away from any challenges.

I don't think even without the mistake 3 out it would have made a difference but I think Elegant Escape has bumped into 2 smart horses in Ballyoptic and Mia's Storm. From the Chepstow race - Mia's Storm bolted up at Newbury today and Mr Mix (11 lengths back) has won since as well. Ballyoptic I think will continue that strong form as the season goes on. Both of the winners set a good standard so I don't see too many negatives in Elegant Escape's runs so far this season. I think archie mentioned previously that it's a race where a string of 1's are uncommon (last 2 winners for example had seasonal form of 14U222133 and 3P62) so it's no major worry.

It would be nice to see him get his head in front but If they follow Native River's path again then Newbury and Kempton will follow. and both races could be even more of a step up in class so it will be interesting to see how he gets on there. It wouldn't surprise me to see him find one or two better again if that's the case but I'm still more than satisfied so far.
 
Impulsive Star went off 8/1 favourite for the Pertemps at the festival last season. (well beaten)

Owned by his father, has had Sam Waley-Cohen on when beaten behind Wholestone in the Albert Bartlett trial at Cheltenham but he has ridden him on 4 of his 5 starts for Mulholland. (including 2 wins)

Is going chasing and is entered up in the 3m race at Exeter this weekend. (Also entered ... Wait For Me, Flintham, Sizing Tennessee and a few others at the moment) but that is the race that AMERICAN and ONENIGHTINVIENNA have won in the last couple of years and I like both of those.

33/1 at the moment for the NH chase, would need to improve for a fence on his hurdling form, but purely on the fact this looks to be an incredibly obvious target (trainer has had runners in the race before that have gone off shortish prices), he might be one that'll be a bit shorter after the first run, and much shorter on the day down to jockey alone?
 
Kevloaf said:
Impulsive Star went off 8/1 favourite for the Pertemps at the festival last season. (well beaten)

Owned by his father, has had Sam Waley-Cohen on when beaten behind Wholestone in the Albert Bartlett trial at Cheltenham but he has ridden him on 4 of his 5 starts for Mulholland. (including 2 wins)

Is going chasing and is entered up in the 3m race at Exeter this weekend. (Also entered ... Wait For Me, Flintham, Sizing Tennessee and a few others at the moment) but that is the race that AMERICAN and ONENIGHTINVIENNA have won in the last couple of years and I like both of those.

33/1 at the moment for the NH chase, would need to improve for a fence on his hurdling form, but purely on the fact this looks to be an incredibly obvious target (trainer has had runners in the race before that have gone off shortish prices), he might be one that'll be a bit shorter after the first run, and much shorter on the day down to jockey alone?
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They were already talking about him as a future chaser last season so you'd hope for improvement for sure. The Sire is not really one on my radar but Waley-Cohen does tend to buy chasers.

Where would you rate Sam in the amateur jockey ranks?
 
Shambles this market on oddschecker. Death Duty favourite? Won’t be going 3 miles let alone 4
 
JackieMoon33 said:
They were already talking about him as a future chaser last season so you'd hope for improvement for sure. The Sire is not really one on my radar but Waley-Cohen does tend to buy chasers.

Where would you rate Sam in the amateur jockey ranks?
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4th.

Codd
O'Connor
Nina
Sam Waley-Cohen.

That's good to hear regarding chasing ... wasn't aware of those comments.
 
Kevloaf said:
Impulsive Star went off 8/1 favourite for the Pertemps at the festival last season. (well beaten)

Owned by his father, has had Sam Waley-Cohen on when beaten behind Wholestone in the Albert Bartlett trial at Cheltenham but he has ridden him on 4 of his 5 starts for Mulholland. (including 2 wins)

Is going chasing and is entered up in the 3m race at Exeter this weekend. (Also entered ... Wait For Me, Flintham, Sizing Tennessee and a few others at the moment) but that is the race that AMERICAN and ONENIGHTINVIENNA have won in the last couple of years and I like both of those.

33/1 at the moment for the NH chase, would need to improve for a fence on his hurdling form, but purely on the fact this looks to be an incredibly obvious target (trainer has had runners in the race before that have gone off shortish prices), he might be one that'll be a bit shorter after the first run, and much shorter on the day down to jockey alone?
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Hoping for a nice staying on performance today from Impulsive Star!
 
jono said:
I've also added a second bet in this race tonight with Elegant Escape at 50/1. I thought he made a more than saticfactory chase debut at Chepstow recently but just lacked the pace of Mia's Storm at the finish. As an ex Point to Pointer he jumped really well. It's also worth noting they started him off at 23.5F suggesting he needs at least 3 miles and has bags of stamina. In Tizzard's RP stable tour last week:



Jamie Codd rode the horse in his PTP (behind Samcro) and had this to say at the start of last season:



Jamie Codd will want to be on the best horse in the race but the fact he did ride the horse in his PTP and had good things to say means there is a chance he may end up linking up if Elegant Escape is one of the main contenders for the race. Although he has often teamed up with Gordon Elliott, he showed last year by choosing AGenieinabottle for Noel Meade that it's not a given. Unlike my concerns with Debece, i'm also confident that Tizzard could persuade one of the top jockeys to get the ride, particularly with his stock being a a career high these last few years. Derek O'Connor famously switched to Minella Rocco but he had initially agreed to ride Native River.

And speaking of Native River - it's worth noting just how similar a path Elegant Escape's career so far has mirrored the Hennessy and Welsh National winner's novice hurdle campaign. Both one a couple of novice hurdles, then stepped markedly up in the Challow Hurdle and Albert Bartlett. (Both disappointed in these 2 races) Like Native River, Elegant Escape started his chasing career off at Chepstow and particularly after Colin Tizzards recent comments it looks likely he could follow NR and line up in the 4 Miler.

Before the Chepstow run Joe Tizzard (before Colin's comments in the RP stable tour) had some good words on him saying he's one of their top novice chasers and that he's summered well and grown into his body:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Joe Tizzard says Elegant Escape is one of their top novice chasers! He runs today in the 2:15 at Chepstow. <a href="https://t.co/zzTxtewZKx">pic.twitter.com/zzTxtewZKx</a></p>— Coral (@Coral) <a href="https://twitter.com/Coral/status/919470415243722752?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 15, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Plenty to like for me and at 50/1 (with William Hill) is well worth getting involved now. He will run again at the November meeting.

I'm half tempted to add Fagan in at 25's as well as it looks an almost certain target now, and even if Codd wasn't to team up with Elliott again, Lisa O'Neill could very well take up the ride and she proved her talent in big field chases when winning this race with Tiger Roll last year along with 2 Kerry National successes. That said, I cannot really see the price altering too much now so i'm in no rush to get involved there.

Nearer the time I will 100% be adding the horse(s) with the highest OR such as their fantastic record over the last 7 years.






Elegant Escape 0.5pts EW 50/1[/B]
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Worth flagging this up .... in to 20/1 now.... was with jono at Newbury yesterday and we backed Elegant Escape at 12/1 the night before and was a lovely performance. Bit of after-timing but think jono deserves some credit as its obviously a good spot! Under the radar!

50/1 looking good now!
 
I thought of Jono as soon as he crossed the line so glad you both backed him yesterday. Tizzard mentioned the RSA afterwards but I hope he goes here for those that took the 50's.

Where is Jono? He hasn't been on here for a while.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I thought of Jono as soon as he crossed the line so glad you both backed him yesterday. Tizzard mentioned the RSA afterwards but I hope he goes here for those that took the 50's.

Where is Jono? He hasn't been on here for a while.
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He'll be back soon .... "quality not quantity" :highly_amused: Maybe I should take a leaf haha

I asked him about RSA but he pointed out he's taken the exact same route as Native River so far again so willing to stick with it.... won't exactly be a short price in the RSA so plenty of time to change I suppose
 
Did anyone like the Presenting Percy performance today?

Travelled like a dream and it more than looked like the step up suited
 
Really like presenting percy.would like to see him in the rsa I think he would have a big chance
 
Aldie1988 said:
Did anyone like the Presenting Percy performance today?

Travelled like a dream and it more than looked like the step up suited
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I did back 0.5 pts e/w at 33/1 BUT I do feel like it was more a 'bounce back' to form, so would probably think RSA still.... although I backed it for this after the race so a possibility!
 
I was thinking along the same lines. Just think the way the race panned out and a slower pace helped him. Looked like there was still a lot more fuel to burn at the end as well.
 
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