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National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase

Scooby91 said:
What's the 4 miler?

He ran in the stayers, won the punchestown stayers the year before. A ptp and a 3m novice novice hurdle. Hes not the avg CH speed horse like MTOY.

The NH chase is By far The easiest race that he can go for, that sums it up for me.
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I mean, this argument, for me personally, does counteract the fact he was a Champion Hurdle winner.

Stamina shouldn't be in doubt at this moment.
 
Him being 12 would be the main issue
 
quevega said:
Him being 12 would be the main issue
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My only issue is his age actually, luckily the 4miler (as it was) has been won by a few horses above the age of 10 over the years, though 12 is not normally the prime number in that list. He has the class, which is what I think most of us would hope to see him get through, if he turned up.
 
It might be the easiest race for win purposes. However, for a horse they don't want to push too hard, whos had many problems, including internally- i doubt they'll want to overface him with a marathon trip.

My view, he's 33s i can see why you'd do it. Don't think it'll happen.
 
jack1092 said:
It might be the easiest race for win purposes. However, for a horse they don't want to push too hard, whos had many problems, including internally- i doubt they'll want to overface him with a marathon trip.

My view, he's 33s i can see why you'd do it. Don't think it'll happen.
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I think if he goes, it's to the easiest race possible. And he will run here

Time will tell.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
My only issue is his age actually, luckily the 4miler (as it was) has been won by a few horses above the age of 10 over the years, though 12 is not normally the prime number in that list. He has the class, which is what I think most of us would hope to see him get through, if he turned up.
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At the end of the day, it's a novice chase, so you don't get many 12 year old's sent novice chasing!
Faugheen is a unique animal and I trust that the owners/trainers will only run him if in this if 1) he has a chance to win and 2) it won't ruin him.
 
I would want to see 33/1 that he is still in training come March never mind turning up at the festival and winning.

He wouldnt be a horse for antepost purposes in my view. Far too risky whether he turns up. He would be one to look at if he made the final declarations and not before. I wouldnt be interested in him anyway but if I was I would have to wait for final decs.
 
For Faugheen I can’t see connections running anywhere near 3M6F, given the additional fences and distance c/w JLT or RSA or numerous other graded races in England and Ireland in the Spring.

They will want the horse to enjoy racing not be faced with a gruelling encounter among the whip-happy brigade over a National-style trip.
 
Faugheen's profile and history add massively to the value aspect of the bet at 40's. Whilst some trainers and owners will throw younger horses into the 4 miler hoping for the best, you can be pretty much rest assured that if Faugheen ends up here then its been the plan all along and there's no way Willie/Ricci risk him without being very confident he can win. Let's hope they have a plan and this is it
 
Hamptonfox said:
For Faugheen I can’t see connections running anywhere near 3M6F, given the additional fences and distance c/w JLT or RSA or numerous other graded races in England and Ireland in the Spring.

They will want the horse to enjoy racing not be faced with a gruelling encounter among the whip-happy brigade over a National-style trip.
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Patrick on board 3m6 against far inferior horses, would he really have to be hard on him?

What's the best opposition your going to get here?

I cant have champagne classic running at all. When they wouldnt even let dounikos, roi des francs or mortal run. And imo CC represents their best RSA chance.

Unlikely to be anything into the 150s.
 
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ELEGANTLY TASTED said:
I would want to see 33/1 that he is still in training come March never mind turning up at the festival and winning.

He wouldnt be a horse for antepost purposes in my view. Far too risky whether he turns up. He would be one to look at if he made the final declarations and not before. I wouldnt be interested in him anyway but if I was I would have to wait for final decs.
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Any form of value will be completely destroyed come final declarations.
 
charlie said:
Any form of value will be completely destroyed come final declarations.
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If they came out now and said he is 100% running here, he'd be slashed to 6/1 fav.
 
Faugheen beat a horse who won a low grade novice hurdle and was making his chase debut and a 7 raced maiden into 3rd. He made mistakes looked clumsy and will be 12yo at Cheltenham and is unlikely to even be targeted at this race. He would be a high alert chance of 'potential injury/setback horse' between now and March.

33/1 is an awful price. Maybe the people who fancy it may want to do a double with Linford Christie for 2020 100m olympic gold.
 
Lobos said:
If they came out now and said he is 100% running here, he'd be slashed to 6/1 fav.
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Yep, that's exactly my point. I took Ruby's interview as a strong hint, not much more. Enough to make me think 40/1 is value.
 
ELEGANTLY TASTED said:
Faugheen beat a horse who won a low grade novice hurdle and was making his chase debut and a 7 raced maiden into 3rd. He made mistakes looked clumsy and will be 12yo at Cheltenham and is unlikely to even be targeted at this race. He would be a high alert chance of 'potential injury/setback horse' between now and March.

33/1 is an awful price. Maybe the people who fancy it may want to do a double with Linford Christie for 2020 100m olympic gold.
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Walk Away is potentially a pretty smart horse ET.
 
Any horse is a 'potentially' smart horse?

Ultimately Walk Away has won a low grade Thurles novice hurdle and been unplaced in 2 grade 1 hurdles when double figure odds.
He was beaten in his only chase by an 11yo who has been plagued by heart problems, muscle problems every problem going. He beat a 7 raced maiden into 3rd.

He had a rating of 140 over hurdles and didnt even improve for the switch to fences recording an rpr of 136.

Distinctly average horse on all known evidence.
 
ELEGANTLY TASTED said:
Any horse is a 'potentially' smart horse?

Ultimately Walk Away has won a low grade Thurles novice hurdle and been unplaced in 2 grade 1 hurdles when double figure odds.
He was beaten in his only chase by an 11yo who has been plagued by heart problems, muscle problems every problem going. He beat a 7 raced maiden into 3rd.

He had a rating of 140 over hurdles and didnt even improve for the switch to fences recording an rpr of 136.

Distinctly average horse on all known evidence.
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lol ok

Wins a maiden by 9ls on his rules debut, finishes 4th in a G1 on second start.

ORs are different to RPRs- that's obvious to most.

An average horse isn't rated 140 ET.......He's unexposed.

In relation to Faugheen, the seconds debut was a nice chase debut against a very high class horse. Faugheens 155-160. Daft to suggest WA should be pushing him on chase debut.

Anyway, for me, Faugheen is unlikely to come here for the reasons i've mentioned.
 
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33s is fair price for Faugheen but does come with a lot of risks attached which is why if I was backing him I'd take that rather than the 40s with skybet. However he isn't one for me his jumping would need brushing up and I don't think he'd stay 3 mile 6.
 
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