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May Yankee

Seeing as it's June now... my choice would be:

Allegorie De Vassy (Mares Chase) - 10/1
Brandy Love (Mares Hurdle) - 7/1
El Fabiolo (Arkle) - 10/1
Gaillard Du Mesnil (NH Chase) - 7/1

Those four are all available at pretty decent prices with fairly certain targets. 7741/1 with Paddy Power. I do like Sir Gerhard for the Turners, I'm fairly confident that's where he will end up, but we know how that ended last year :highly_amused: I'd probably swap him in for GDM if people were keen on him, but I think there's enough doubt there to stay away.
 
Lobos said:
The only strong personal view I have is that Sir Gerhard will not be running in it. He looks a Stayer to me. The way he sluiced through the testing rain sodden ground in the Ballymore and finished the race strongly plus his poor Punchestown showing says to me he'll go Turner's or even RSA .
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He pulled townends arms out the entire way round in the ballymore like a 2 miler

Punchestown has been dreadful both times he's gone there at the end of the season so that can be ignored

Definitely don't see the he's a stayer angle myself

He's shown plenty of speed his entire career
 
Ice said:
I also like el fabiolo for the arkle. Anyone else like redemption day in the supreme ?
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Unless their targets are guaranteed, I'll pretty much be backing all Mullins horses in the TWAR market. Not playing Bingo this year and Cash out is not what it was.
 
Spectre said:
I'd imagine El Fabiolo will be the Mullins number 1, and he's a really good shout
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Is there any chance James de Berlais is aimed over 2m ?
No idea if he’s fit/well/alive but if he were to make the racecourse and be sent chasing he could make his presence felt whatever route he takes…
 
Lobos said:
Unless their targets are guaranteed, I'll pretty much be backing all Mullins horses in the TWAR market. Not playing Bingo this year and Cash out is not what it was.
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….the prices in those markets are not what they were and there is always the chance some come up against each other. Also, it doesn’t give much option for this thread.

I do like the ‘win today & a/r’ offers. Facile Vega a/r @ 66-1 for example was generous, 6/4 now for a/r isn’t.
 
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Spectre said:
It's a Willie Mullins theme NC, so Flooring Porter and Winged Leader don't qualify.
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Apologies, away with the fairies!!

In that case, and leaving out Sir Gerhard because of target uncertainty:

Gaillard Du Mesnil (NHC)
Elimay (MC)
Capodanno (GC)
Billaway (Fox)
 
Istabraq said:
Is there any chance James de Berlais is aimed over 2m ?
No idea if he’s fit/well/alive but if he were to make the racecourse and be sent chasing he could make his presence felt whatever route he takes…
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JDB best performance for Mullins was over 2m7 and he's been running over 2m2+ since his 4th run until the CH so I'd have thought he would be a Turners shout more than an Arkle.
 
…..Ferny Hollow 8-1 Champion Chase for consideration.
 
Hurricane fly said:
JDB best performance for Mullins was over 2m7 and he's been running over 2m2+ since his 4th run until the CH so I'd have thought he would be a Turners shout more than an Arkle.
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Yeah I just wondered whether he’d be aimed at shorter given the yards weapons over mid/staying distances.
It’s a guess, nothing more, I’ve heard/read nothing on his wellbeing…
 
Having a Mullins yankee this early is buying a ticket for the bingo. For reasons already mentioned, I'd steer clear of the mares. I'd go with:
Energumene (QM)
Billaway (Hunter)
Sir Gerhard (Turners)
Facile Vega (Ballymore)
with an honourable mention for State Man (Champion Hurdle).
 
My vote on one selection would be Allegorie de Vassy for Mares Chase at 10s.

Not seen any quotes but assume would be heading over fences? Provided she takes to them, 10/1 seems a very fair price for a horse who was going to go off a short price fave for the mares novice in a fairly windy mares chase division this season.
 
knockando said:
My vote on one selection would be Allegorie de Vassy for Mares Chase at 10s.

Not seen any quotes but assume would be heading over fences? Provided she takes to them, 10/1 seems a very fair price for a horse who was going to go off a short price fave for the mares novice in a fairly windy mares chase division this season.
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I'd say that's a bit risky personally

Given we don't know she's going chasing and she missed this years festival with injury

Taking that into account 10s looks a bit stingy to me
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
I'd say that's a bit risky personally

Given we don't know she's going chasing and she missed this years festival with injury

Taking that into account 10s looks a bit stingy to me
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Fair enough, might be one to consider later in the season when confirmation comes as to whether she stays over hurdles or not but one for a left field shout anyway.
 
knockando said:
Fair enough, might be one to consider later in the season when confirmation comes as to whether she stays over hurdles or not but one for a left field shout anyway.
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She's definitely one I'd personally rather take 7-8/1 on as soon as the news that she's going chasing breaks
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
She's definitely one I'd personally rather take 7-8/1 on as soon as the news that she's going chasing breaks
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I’m sure there were the usual post race comments from WPM about her after one of her wins, she’ll jump a fence etc or words to that affect. She looked liked she had the scope put it that way and was still raw in both her wins.

Agree it’s risky but I’d say the fact she’s missed the mares novice maybe makes it more likely she’ll just go over fences imo.

10/1 is fairly short for something with risk though, PP had her at 25/1 which I’m sure a few took! I certainly did after remembering those comments post race (hope I did hear these if anyone can back that up) :encouragement:
 
Craigy14 said:
I’m sure there were the usual post race comments from WPM about her after one of her wins, she’ll jump a fence etc or words to that affect. She looked liked she had the scope put it that way and was still raw in both her wins.

Agree it’s risky but I’d say the fact she’s missed the mares novice maybe makes it more likely she’ll just go over fences imo.

10/1 is fairly short for something with risk though, PP had her at 25/1 which I’m sure a few took! I certainly did after remembering those comments post race (hope I did hear these if anyone can back that up) :encouragement:
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Given she will be only 6 next march and has had a long injury I'd be a little doubtful that they go chasing this year

They may well stay over hurdles another year as they have plenty of time with such a young horse
 
archie said:
Having a Mullins yankee this early is buying a ticket for the bingo.

Think you've hit the nail on the head there archie.

The bottom line is it's just too early to be betting on a Willie Mullins yankee.

So many of Willie's Festival winners pop up in the novice races - I imagine they would account for well over half his tally during the last decade (afraid I haven't the time to tally it up right now).

So unless we get involved in some very high risk Mullins bingo we are basically having to restrict ourselves to look at horses whose talent is well exposed and built into the price.

Surely it would be better to do a Mullins yankee in September or October when we at least get a better idea of what he's bought in France, who will go over hurdles and who will stick to bumpers etc - and at that stage we could just latch onto the next Vauban at 25-1.
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…..being too lazy to look back in the thread, I’m not even sure MoM said this would be a Mullins Yankee.
 
archie said:
Having a Mullins yankee this early is buying a ticket for the bingo. For reasons already mentioned, I'd steer clear of the mares. I'd go with:
Energumene (QM)
Billaway (Hunter)
Sir Gerhard (Turners)
Facile Vega (Ballymore)
with an honourable mention for State Man (Champion Hurdle).
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I've found someone else who thinks Facile Vega will end up in the Ballymore!!! Yes Arch !

I'd go Vega (Bally), Sir G (Turners) , Instit (Mares Chase) and Hunters Yarn (Supreme).
 
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