May Yankee

[Zachx02]

Can't have Elimay as all, she just hasn't looked like she enjoys racing at all since when she lost out to Colreevy, not the same horse she was 12 months ago

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Can't have Elimay as all, she just hasn't looked like she enjoys racing at all since when she lost out to Colreevy, not the same horse she was 12 months ago

I agree.

I do love Elimay, and she was central to my thoughts for the Mares Chase a year ago, and being the main horse to get in my team for the race.

However, I felt lucky to collect.
She scrambled home, among horses rated much worse, in a race that was much weaker on ratings to 2021.

Her Official rating is down 5lb form the previous year at 150 from 155.

Her RPR in her 2021 Mares Chase 2nd was 159.
She won this season with 146 RPR.
Almost stone drop in form to win the race.

There's probably 10 or more Mares already who can hit that type of rating, and no doubt a few more lined up to go chasing that are capable of hitting a 146-150 rating before Cheltenham in Novice company.

Gin On Lime was beaten by one last Friday (Elliott's Say Goodbye posted a 139 on her 2nd Chase start. 2nd win, and looks to be one that Gordon is getting experience into early, and over the midtrips).

What Willie sends chasing, and Henry, will be interesting, and whether Henry keeps Magic Daze back at 2M or expands up to the Mares Chase trip.

She posted a 145 RPR when winning at the Punchestown Festival in a handicap whilst Elimay was thrashed by Scarlet and Dove (RPR 152) when 2nd in a Grade 2 with a 134 RPR.

Riviere Detel is only 5, and would be a big player, if stepping into the Mares Chase.

Elimay and Scarlet and Dove will both be 9yo next March.

There's going to be a point where these older Mares Chase possibles end up retiring to stud.

Like Colreevy and PTKO have done in the last 12 months.

I'd be keen on knowing whose going to be around, and who isn't, at the time Stable Tours come out in October (if not before).

 

[archie]

Mares often decide that they've had enough quickly and without much warning. Owners are far more likely to retire them, particularly those with black type, at the first sign of this or with even a mild ailment. I wouldn't be looking at any mare for a yankee this far out.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Mares often decide that they've had enough quickly and without much warning. Owners are far more likely to retire them, particularly those with black type, at the first sign of this or with even a mild ailment. I wouldn't be looking at any mare for a yankee this far out.

Archie, when is about the deadline for a breeding year ?
If Elimay comes back in July and doesn't show sufficient spark could/would she be covered in August or has that breeding year been lost ?

 

[Eggs]

….my nominations are;

TMSG (16-1)/Brandy Love (8-1) Mares Hurdle (optional selection)
An Tobar (25-1 or 20-1 generally) Ballymore.

 

[archie]

Archie, when is about the deadline for a breeding year ?
If Elimay comes back in July and doesn't show sufficient spark could/would she be covered in August or has that breeding year been lost ?

She could be covered if in season but it would be doubtful that they would consider it worth it. As you have a gestation period of 11 months, you are effectively going for a late covering every year unless you give her a few months off and miss a foaling year. If they bring her back in training in July she wouldn't be doing fast work until September at the earliest and they would probably persevere until the turn of the year if she stayed sound. They might even try her back over hurdles.

 

[Joleg]

I would put forward

El Fabiolo - Arkle
Gaillard Du Mesnil - NHC
Allaho - Ryanair
Energumene - QM

 

[Deleted member 4957]

She could be covered if in season but it would be doubtful that they would consider it worth it. As you have a gestation period of 11 months, you are effectively going for a late covering every year unless you give her a few months off and miss a foaling year. If they bring her back in training in July she wouldn't be doing fast work until September at the earliest and they would probably persevere until the turn of the year if she stayed sound. They might even try her back over hurdles.

Thanks.
You make a good point about giving a mare time off, I ignorantly just assumed a mare can take the role of a breeding machine without any consideration for the horse….

 

[Spectre]

If the plan was to retire Elimay as a broodmare they'd have already done it.

Most seem against her, which is fair enough, but I'm not seeing many alternatives to her being put forward.

Scarlet and Dove is the obvious one, but she benefitted from going back right-handed at Punchestown (take a look at the balance of her form), and I'd expect Elimay to confirm the form back at Cheltenham.

I can't have Riviere D'etel for anything left-handed given she jumps so violently out to the right. I suspect she probably won't even go to Cheltenham in March, and they'll focus her attention elsewhere now. There are some valuable races that will suit her perfectly.

Gin On Lime just isn't good enough.

Magic Daze is a bang two miler.

I'm not keen on novices for the race unless they've got plenty of experience, and you'd want something that comes out early that can get some kind of mid-season break.

Therefore nothing stands out to oppose Elimay with. Willie will be sure to get her there spot on to defend her crown. And as for going sour. There's been no sign of it so far. She was as game as anything getting her head in front in March. I might consider her too old next season when she turns 10 for the 2024 Festival, but she's only 8 right now, and whilst she's had plenty of racing, in the context of this race that's exactly why I like her. The novices are the only ones that leave an unknown with regards form and what my eyes tell me, and experience (and probably course form/experience), is a real issue for a novice against a tough campaigner like Elimay, who has been there and done that.

I can get a bit caught up with things sometimes, but I really must be missing something. The only basis of opposition is that she might go sour. There's a long list of horses that have gone sour at a younger age than her over the years. Samcro, Envoi Allen, etc, etc, etc. Why should she suddenly go sour now? If she lines up as a solid favourite on the day, would you still not back her just in case she goes sour? Instead the only horses that have been put up in opposition, are either a horse she beat last year who is the same age and is no more likely to improve or regress than her, or a horse that is clearly unsuited to Cheltenham, or any left-handed track for that matter.

For the purposes of this kind of bet I want solid horses where I know the target. She'll come here, she's the current champion, and there's pretty much nothing coming along to oppose her with. I've not read a post yet that convinces me otherwise. But I have seen plenty of selections so far where the target is less clear, or it's a change of discipline, or there's lots of credible opposition. The only Mullins horses that I could clearly put ahead of her given the context of the race are Allaho and Energumene. Possibly Gaillard du Mesnil too given some of the comments at the end of the season. The four of them for a yankee may be too short overall, so I guess Allaho and Energumene are probably an either/or choice. Personally I'd put both in though because they will just get shorter. Gaillard 7/1 and Elimay 6/1 would be solid in my opinion. Alternatives are a choice of something from the little less certain pot, and the horse that on balance is the most solid with regards target and ability is probably The Nice Guy.

Having said all that, I accept that with so many against Elimay she won't go in the yankee, and that's fair enough. It's all about opinions, and I'm pretty much alone on this one. I must be wrong in this case and I'm just not seeing it.

So after all the long-windedness my four assuming my Elmay case doesn't sway people would be:

Allaho
Energumene
Gaillard du Mesnil
The Nice Guy

That's a 540/1 yankee, which looks pretty sold in terms of options. Or with Elimay it becomes a 3800/1 super yankee. As they say, God loves a tryer! :highly_amused:

 

[Eggs]

….personally, throwing more than one short-priced favourite in at this stage seems a bit ‘safe’. The target might be clear but I’m not sure it’s a big advantage taking 7/4 or 5/2 about selections 9 months out.

TNG has featured in March & April bets & I think the indication is he will not be included this time.

 

[Spectre]

….personally, throwing more than one short-priced favourite in at this stage seems a bit ‘safe’. The target might be clear but I’m not sure it’s a big advantage taking 7/4 or 5/2 about selections 9 months out.

TNG has featured in March & April bets & I think the indication is he will not be included this time.

I agree that it's safe Eggs, but with Willie moving horses all round the show if he's the theme I'd say safe is a good thing. This is the yankee where we are most likely to have non-runners for the selected races, so for me having a high level of certainty of the target for a Mullins yankee should be criteria number 1.

Accepted that TNG is in two already so there's no point including him. That adds to the case for putting Elimay in though. She's the same price as TNG so the best odds are still the same.

 

[nortonscoin200]

My two penn'orth:

Gaillard Du Mesnil (NHC)
Flooring Porter (SH)
Winged Leader (Fox)
Sir Gerhard (Arkle/Turners - take your pick) ***

***In terms of race target, Sir Gerhard is obviously the most risky proposition. But the up-side is that whichever race he lines up in he'll probably go off a short priced favourite and will be the most likely winner.

So you either back him for both races or take your pick. For what it's worth (practically nothing) I'd go for the Arkle.

 

[Spectre]

It's a Willie Mullins theme NC, so Flooring Porter and Winged Leader don't qualify.

 

[Eggs]

It's a Willie Mullins theme NC, so Flooring Porter and Winged Leader don't qualify.

…sorry, I must have missed MoM saying it’ll be WM selections this month. That does make a big difference.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

What hasn’t helped with this is the bookmakers insistence at putting up an endless list of shameful prices.
Last year we all moaned but Allaho was still available at 4/1 around this time, I haven’t checked the market but what is he now, 6/4 ?
And there’s more chance he heads for the Gold Cup this year than there was last.
Spectre is right about solid targets but the prices just aren’t attractive, 540/1 doesn’t sound like adequate reward for four horses to win in a speculative multiple ten months out.
All that said we probably need to get as many 2023 bets on while we’re still able to….

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Has anyone got any strong views on the Arkle, could be some juice in one or two of Mullins if we think that’ll be their target…

 

[Lobos]

Has anyone got any strong views on the Arkle, could be some juice in one or two of Mullins if we think that’ll be their target…

The only strong personal view I have is that Sir Gerhard will not be running in it. He looks a Stayer to me. The way he sluiced through the testing rain sodden ground in the Ballymore and finished the race strongly plus his poor Punchestown showing says to me he'll go Turner's or even RSA .

 

[Spectre]

Has anyone got any strong views on the Arkle, could be some juice in one or two of Mullins if we think that’ll be their target…

I'd imagine El Fabiolo will be the Mullins number 1, and he's a really good shout for this Istabraq. So excluding The Nice Guy:

El Fabiolo 10/1
Gaillard du Mesnil 7/1
Energumene 5/2
Allaho 7/4

Best price 847/1


El Fabiolo 10/1
Gaillard Du Mesnil 7/1
Energumene 5/2
Elimay 6/1

Best price 2156/1, which is a bit more acceptable if I can convince everyone Elimay has nothing to beat.

 

[Dandrew99]

The only strong personal view I have is that Sir Gerhard will not be running in it. He looks a Stayer to me. The way he sluiced through the testing rain sodden ground in the Ballymore and finished the race strongly plus his poor Punchestown showing says to me he'll go Turner's or even RSA .

Agreed. As someone who was very much on the Sir Gerhard to the Supreme side last season, I can't see him running at 2m again personally. From the top of my head, Mullins will probably have El Fabiolo and Dysart Dynamo for the Arkle at this stage, plus you've got to consider Appreciate It and maybe even Saint Roi in that mix. El Fabiolo is probably the only one even worth considering at this stage given the doubts over AI and SR, and the fact that DD is an absolute lunatic.

 

[Ice]

I also like el fabiolo for the arkle. Anyone else like redemption day in the supreme ?