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Martin Pipe 2018

I can only imagine Mr Big Shot has been tipped up somewhere because oddschecker is a sea of blue. At this rate if he got in he would be near enough favourite. Given his absence one of the more interesting gambles.
 
BLOW BY BLOW

7yo ch g (1-32161)

Robin Des Champs - Shean Rose

It was good to see him win a Grade 3 at Clonmel the last day and he seems to be getting his act together. He’ll go for the Martin Pipe. I suppose in general he has been a bit disappointing as he looked a very good bumper horse, but the fast pace over there will suit him and he is going the right away again now.


I see he already has the market leader in Flawless Escape and Sire Du Berlais has been well backed, but 20/1 for BBB is a big price in this isn't it?
 
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FLAXEN FLARE

9yo ch g (3U-2320P)

Windsor Knot - Golden Angel

He just doesn’t have the heart for jumping fences and he’ll go back over hurdles in the Martin Pipe. He has been in very good form at home and he could be a lively outsider in that.



I'm actually really interested in this horse at 50/1 NRNB with Betfair. Elliott had the fav in The Storyteller last year, ended up with Runfordave placing 3rd off 140. I know ovbviously Gordon likes the race, but do the owners want a winner? Or is the coincedence?

Flaxen Flare is rated 143 for the race... Festival form reads:
2013 - 1st - Fred Winter
2014 - 5th - County Hurdle
Missed the next few with a 236 day break, a win at cork then a 689 day break

Chasing obviously not for him, but he's definitely going to get in... and purely on the basis he's been 1st and 5th before... 50/1 is a big price? Trainer knows what he's doing...

ANyone else like him? I wihs it was 5 places, I'd definitely have a bet :p

I might anyway! 50/1 I don't need loads of reasons
 
Kevloaf said:
FLAXEN FLARE

9yo ch g (3U-2320P)

Windsor Knot - Golden Angel

He just doesn’t have the heart for jumping fences and he’ll go back over hurdles in the Martin Pipe. He has been in very good form at home and he could be a lively outsider in that.



I'm actually really interested in this horse at 50/1 NRNB with Betfair. Elliott had the fav in The Storyteller last year, ended up with Runfordave placing 3rd off 140. I know ovbviously Gordon likes the race, but do the owners want a winner? Or is the coincedence?

Flaxen Flare is rated 143 for the race... Festival form reads:
2013 - 1st - Fred Winter
2014 - 5th - County Hurdle
Missed the next few with a 236 day break, a win at cork then a 689 day break

Chasing obviously not for him, but he's definitely going to get in... and purely on the basis he's been 1st and 5th before... 50/1 is a big price? Trainer knows what he's doing...

ANyone else like him? I wihs it was 5 places, I'd definitely have a bet :p

I might anyway! 50/1 I don't need loads of reasons
Click to expand...

A fair chance Kev. If you took that seasonal debut over hurdles literally (I know it's dangerous but it's his only hurdle form line this season) where he was only beat 11 lengths by Apple's Jade off levels you would have to say 143 he could be chucked in now going back over hurdles, how would most of this lot do against AJ off levels?

All of his better performances have been over the Martin Pipe distance so another positive.

You don't need many reasons to back a 50/1 shot, and I see enough positives here.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
A fair chance Kev. If you took that seasonal debut over hurdles literally (I know it's dangerous but it's his only hurdle form line this season) where he was only beat 11 lengths by Apple's Jade off levels you would have to say 143 he could be chucked in now going back over hurdles, how would most of this lot do against AJ off levels?

All of his better performances have been over the Martin Pipe distance so another positive.

You don't need many reasons to back a 50/1 shot, and I see enough positives here.
Click to expand...

To be honest I think I've been lured in my the analysis that was done on the level stakes profit you'd make backing previous festival winners. 50/1 is a big price...albeit he won 5 years ago.

It isn't putting people off backing Cue Card though and he's a 10 times shorter...he last won at the festival the same year ... although obviously has done better in between :p

I've had 0.5 pts e/w for now. will add another 0.5 pts when I see some enhanced place terms maybe
 
Kevloaf said:
To be honest I think I've been lured in my the analysis that was done on the level stakes profit you'd make backing previous festival winners. 50/1 is a big price...albeit he won 5 years ago.

It isn't putting people off backing Cue Card though and he's a 10 times shorter...he last won at the festival the same year ... although obviously has done better in between :p

I've had 0.5 pts e/w for now. will add another 0.5 pts when I see some enhanced place terms maybe
Click to expand...

I've had a small speculative go for now with a view to lump on more once the place terms increase, hopefully someone goes 6 places @ 33's, wishful thinking I know haha!
 
Flawless Escape needs a lot to come out if he's going to get a run.
 
With it looking unlikely that Deal D'Estruval will get in i've had another look at the race tonight and have fallen on

Spiritofthegames 25/1 NRNB

He currently needs just 5 to come out so should get a run if he does run here. He does hold entries in both the Coral and the County but this was considered the plan at one of the early preview nights:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Spiritofthegames goes in the Martin Pipe says <a href="https://twitter.com/harryskelton89?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@harryskelton89</a> and could have a good chance in the race - spring ground will help.</p>— bettrends.co.uk (@bettrends) <a href="https://twitter.com/bettrends/status/966774160000249856?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 22, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Now going on my record of flagging up horses in handicaps this year and then them not running i'm sure that'll now change! But on the basis he ends up here...

Bridget Andrews has ridden the horse in the last 2 runs and would be eligible to continue the partnership in this race which would be a positive (just in terms of knowing the horse well and maybe a longer term plan?)

Starting point for this year for the last couple of seasons has been look for a stayer in the making:

Sir Des Champs, Salubrious, Don Poli, Killultagh Vic, Ibis Du Rheu, Champagne Classic

Although he hasn't tried 3 miles yet over hurdles - he was a winning point to pointer over 3 miles and watching back him runs I think he will definitely be going over 3 miles sooner rather than later over the next few seasons which is the kind of horse I like for this.

Has run in 2 of the best handicap hurdle races this season in the Lanzarote at Kempton and the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. At Kempton he came second behind the Coral Cup favourite William Henry. The form of that race is working out well. The step back down to 2 miles in the Betfair saw him place again in 3rd. He was put in his place by the front 2 but he himself pulled 9 lengths clear of the field (though the ground that day should have some caution with plenty not acting on it)

Has form figures of 11421123. Has proven he can handle big competitive handicap fields and ran a more than respectable race on only his second run over hurdles at the track in November 2016 in a race that included Peregrine Run, Wholestone and West Approach. Although good ground is predicted to bring out improvement he's shown he will be able to handle testing ground.

He was rated 139 on his last run (2 miles) and runs off that same mark here. In the latest Wetherbys betting guide they highlight the different types of winners of the race and how they differ between the English and the Irish with the profile of English runners having handicap experience (4-3-7-4-4 runs) and being a second or third season hurdler which he fits that profile.

Bets so far:

Deal D'Estruval 14/1 EW
Early Doors 33/1 EW
Spiritofthegames 25/1 EW
 
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Kevloaf said:
FLAXEN FLARE

He just doesn’t have the heart for jumping fences and he’ll go back over hurdles in the Martin Pipe. He has been in very good form at home and he could be a lively outsider in that.

I'm actually really interested in this horse at 50/1 NRNB with Betfair. Elliott had the fav in The Storyteller last year, ended up with Runfordave placing 3rd off 140. I know ovbviously Gordon likes the race, but do the owners want a winner? Or is the coincedence?

Flaxen Flare is rated 143 for the race... Festival form reads:
2013 - 1st - Fred Winter
2014 - 5th - County Hurdle
Missed the next few with a 236 day break, a win at cork then a 689 day break

Chasing obviously not for him, but he's definitely going to get in... and purely on the basis he's been 1st and 5th before... 50/1 is a big price? Trainer knows what he's doing...

ANyone else like him? I wihs it was 5 places, I'd definitely have a bet :p

I might anyway! 50/1 I don't need loads of reasons
Click to expand...



Kevloaf said:
To be honest I think I've been lured in my the analysis that was done on the level stakes profit you'd make backing previous festival winners. 50/1 is a big price...albeit he won 5 years ago.

It isn't putting people off backing Cue Card though and he's a 10 times shorter...he last won at the festival the same year ... although obviously has done better in between :p

I've had 0.5 pts e/w for now. will add another 0.5 pts when I see some enhanced place terms maybe
Click to expand...

Flexen Flare is 66/1 1/4 the odds with 365 for 5 places. I'll so I've had an extra bit on.
 
Still no idea on this. Might just swerve it tbh
 
Anyone any idea about the jockey on Deal DEstruval. I think the horse has a great chance and has been backed but can'y find anything on Liam Gilligan
 
robith said:
Still no idea on this. Might just swerve it tbh
Click to expand...

Combination forecast of Elliott's?

Flawless Escape, Sire Du Berlais, Blow by Blow

:p
 
quevega said:
Anyone any idea about the jockey on Deal DEstruval. I think the horse has a great chance and has been backed but can'y find anything on Liam Gilligan
Click to expand...

7 lb claimer

Rode Chateau Conti for Willie the the pertemps qualifier at Leopardstown over Christmas (came nowhere)
 
Kevloaf said:
Combination forecast of Elliott's?

Flawless Escape, Sire Du Berlais, Blow by Blow

:p
Click to expand...

Melrose Boy has appeared in my tracker email so that'll do for a point each way
 
robith said:
Melrose Boy has appeared in my tracker email so that'll do for a point each way
Click to expand...

Tipped by Andy Holding as well as Matt Brocklebank and Ben Linfoot on Sporting Life :encouragement: Can't be bad!
 
quevega said:
Anyone any idea about the jockey on Deal DEstruval. I think the horse has a great chance and has been backed but can'y find anything on Liam Gilligan
Click to expand...



Apparently rides him out every day and has had a couple of rides for Willie before
 
Brilliant took a long time to get my 1st winner of the day but that caps off a brilliant week. Early doors ran a cracker too.
No runner I'm the last race.
It's been a pleasure, . And you guys have really helped.
 
Scooby91 said:
Brilliant took a long time to get my 1st winner of the day but that caps off a brilliant week. Early doors ran a cracker too.
No runner I'm the last race.
It's been a pleasure, . And you guys have really helped.
Click to expand...

As above, not the best of days but thats a bonus to a great festival! Looked a class above there.
 
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