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Marsh Novices Chase 2020 (was JLT)

What im saying is that the money on the 1st or 2nd fav went into the bookies pocket.Run them races again on better ground and theres a diff results in all 7 races.You cant write one horse off after one race on that ground.
 
Been a lot of talk on here about Reserve Tank being written off.
Without anyone actually saying so, or even implying.

But surely it's up to the individual whether they want to write him off 'as a cheltenham novice chase winner' (after the run Saturday) or not.

Fuck it.
I'm officially writing him off:devilish:
 
Colin Tizzard won't train a winner at the festival (again)

He's so incredibly over hyped, especially at Cheltenham.



World Hurdle with Thistlecrack (beat Alpha Des Awful and Bob's Worfth ffs)
Gold Cup with Native River (big slow old boat that got SO lucky with the ground)
Ryanair with Cue Card (shouldn't be a race)
Bumper with Cue Card at a billion to one (joke lottery race)



Luckiest trainer ever. Couldn't have one of his donkey horses on my mind.


Fluffed Finian's Oscar, fluffed Lostintranslation in the last couple of years and there will be countless others.






:highly_amused:

Really though, he ain't all that is he... if he has a good horse (that has a very obvious route) then he seems to be able to deliver (but what trainer wouldn't?) In terms of Tizzard with novice chasers or hurdlers at the festival he's not got a good record AT ALL.


I hope I can cash out my RSA bet :p
 
I think the jump at the last didn’t help reserve tank albeit he still would have lost but maybe not by as much. Jarvey’s
Plate had the better jump and momentum after the last....

What puts me off is bet365 only pushed him out 3 points to 10/1 so still have him as favourite for the race.
 
Thomas Derby is surely a must bet at 40s? If Klassical dream is as good a hurdler as Willie thinks this lad wasn’t beaten far and hurdling was never his game, big scopey horse.

He looked like he would improve for a trip to me. 40s is huge and with cashout a no brainier.
 
The Don said:
Thomas Derby is surely a must bet at 40s? If Klassical dream is as good a hurdler as Willie thinks this lad wasn’t beaten far and hurdling was never his game, big scopey horse.

He looked like he would improve for a trip to me. 40s is huge and with cashout a no brainier.
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Pretty sure you've answered your own question :)
 
The Don said:
Thomas Derby is surely a must bet at 40s? If Klassical dream is as good a hurdler as Willie thinks this lad wasn’t beaten far and hurdling was never his game, big scopey horse.

He looked like he would improve for a trip to me. 40s is huge and with cashout a no brainier.
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Got to agree here, I've put a point on him. Like you say his form stacks up well and having cashout makes it worth the risk, especially as Olly Murphy keeps stating how he thinks he may like further.
 
TD is almost a max stakes bet for me in this market. The cash out option just makes it a no brainer.
 
And me... How could you not fancy 40/1 with the cash out! I've covered him in the Arkle at 25/1 too.

I've also added two more that look complete no brainers with the cash out and that is Samcro at 16/1 and Champ at 14/1.

GE gave Samcro a very positive update yesterday and I'm convinced this will be the right trip for him. If he wins one novice chase easily, the hype train will start again. I've split my bet in two so when he does halve in price, I will be able to cash thjat half in to cover both bets and effectively have a free bet at 16's.

I also think Champ isn't a dour stayer and the horse possesses so much speed, this race could be perfect for him. Even if he does stay at 3m, I imagine he won't get any bigger for this race and I can get my stake back.
 
just added wicklow brave 33s anyrace will hills boosted 36.5 156 hurdler beat a couple of nice sorts at List 2nd gone in again, surely in mix for one of the novice chases if sticking to bigger obstacles...
 
Birds Nest said:
just added wicklow brave 33s anyrace will hills boosted 36.5 156 hurdler beat a couple of nice sorts at List 2nd gone in again, surely in mix for one of the novice chases if sticking to bigger obstacles...
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Blimey that’s brave

I’d be very surprised if he’s novice chasing in March
 
Birds Nest said:
just added wicklow brave 33s anyrace will hills boosted 36.5 156 hurdler beat a couple of nice sorts at List 2nd gone in again, surely in mix for one of the novice chases if sticking to bigger obstacles...
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Could be a very good shout. Might have wanted to wait another day until he runs at far hills. But I was personally on the same lines.
 
quevega said:
Too old...?
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Well factored into his price though, same would have been said about rathvinden.

Experienced. Always runs his best race at cheltenham. I wouldnt knock the bet myself wherever he lines up.
 
The quotes have been about getting to the Drinmore and reviewing the situation after that.
 
archie said:
The quotes have been about getting to the Drinmore and reviewing the situation after that.
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What's your thoughts archie on the experienced side?
, the likes of wicklow brave and champ may well not go on to be absolute superstars the year after in open company and others may catch up (ie percy, alboum photo) But in the novice year I can see them making big impacts and using there battle hardened strength and experience to good use before the others come on, down the line.
 
Scooby91 said:
What's your thoughts archie on the experienced side?
, the likes of wicklow brave and champ may well not go on to be absolute superstars the year after in open company and others may catch up (ie percy, alboum photo) But in the novice year I can see them making big impacts and using there battle hardened strength and experience to good use before the others come on, down the line.
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But how many times do battle hardened older horses win novice events at Cheltenham? 8yr olds don’t do very well in RSA’s. The younger 7yr olds usually improve past them by Cheltenham
 
Kautostar said:
But how many times do battle hardened older horses win novice events at Cheltenham? 8yr olds don’t do very well in RSA’s. The younger 7yr olds usually improve past them by Cheltenham
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Last years JLT RSA and NH chase winners had an extra year over hurdles. If you wanted to be really picky DDG the arkle winner ran over hurdles in france before he came here as a novice hurdler the season before.

The prior year footpad won the arkle, percy ran in handicap company and had a lot of runs. Rathvinden won the NH chase. Shattered love had 15 runs in the bag prior to winning the JLT.

It's a quick turn around from your 1st novice chase start to chelt.
 
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