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Marsh Novices Chase 2020 (was JLT)

Hardy Eustace said:
I think Itchy Feet will be interesting tomorrow and am expecting a bold show. Won't be 33/1 for this if it wins. Has festival form, was impressive (admittedly beating nothing) on chase debut. You'll find worse 33/1 shots for the fez at this stage of the season.
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Same principle applies to Easy Game at 25s. They're two potential lurkers at decent prices in this. I'm really not convinced EG is a Grade 1 horse but that was a nice performance on debut beating Allaho and I just cannot see this being a deep race.
 
Grand Sancy is my fancyfor the Scilly Isles. He was outpaced 2 out in the Wayward Lad (as he was on chase debut) but stayed on strongly to the line. He'll appreciate both GBB setting the fractions and the extra 4f and Nicholls is coming into form. Very happy to take the 8s available.
 
Had to back Laurina for this; she wins tomorrow and shortens, or she gets beat and they don’t even go to Cheltenham imho
 
Laurina & Lamarckise - a Mullins Mares thursday double... 62/1 NRNB
 
I don’t see how Laurina gets beat tomorrow and the 7/4 on offer seems big to me. The marsh really does look up in the air and is waiting for something to really put a marker down and i think she will tomorrow. Gotta be taking the 8/1 NRNB. 3/1 fav after she wins convincing???
 
Kautothegreat8 said:
I don’t see how Laurina gets beat tomorrow and the 7/4 on offer seems big to me. The marsh really does look up in the air and is waiting for something to really put a marker down and i think she will tomorrow. Gotta be taking the 8/1 NRNB. 3/1 fav after she wins convincing???
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She bled last time. Horses who bleed once often bleed again.
 
I’ll be stunned if Battleoverdoyen can beat Faugheen on Sunday. Simply cannot see Battleoverdoyen having the speed to live with faugheen over 2 and a half miles. I think he’s a sensational lay at the prices.
 
Kautothegreat8 said:
I don’t see how Laurina gets beat tomorrow and the 7/4 on offer seems big to me. The marsh really does look up in the air and is waiting for something to really put a marker down and i think she will tomorrow. Gotta be taking the 8/1 NRNB. 3/1 fav after she wins convincing???
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Middle_Of_March said:
She bled last time. Horses who bleed once often bleed again.
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Kautothegreat8 said:
Yeah that is my only concern
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:highly_amused:

That was funny to read quickly.




Well done on the 4/1 everybody. Looks a nice bet.

I won't back her at the price she is tomorrow, but my colours are firmly in the NRNB Marsh basket as posted up t'other day.



If she's beaten, I reckon I'll be down on the winner and assume they're now too short based on beating a has-been.



So it will be tough for me to be impressed :highly_amused:
 
AnFiieLD. said:
I’ll be stunned if Battleoverdoyen can beat Faugheen on Sunday. Simply cannot see Battleoverdoyen having the speed to live with faugheen over 2 and a half miles. I think he’s a sensational lay at the prices.
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Faugheen is not a horse you can rely on to always put in a performance?

Not a two horse race though.
 
AnFiieLD. said:
I’ll be stunned if Battleoverdoyen can beat Faugheen on Sunday. Simply cannot see Battleoverdoyen having the speed to live with faugheen over 2 and a half miles. I think he’s a sensational lay at the prices.
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Stunned looks a strong word. I’m surprised that anyone is prepared to be confident of Faugheen following up his last race. I’d be more confident in BOD being ok at 2m5 than I would in Faugheen bringing his A-game. But I’ll be backing neither this weekend to be honest.
 
Kevloaf said:
:highly_amused:

That was funny to read quickly.




Well done on the 4/1 everybody. Looks a nice bet.

I won't back her at the price she is tomorrow, but my colours are firmly in the NRNB Marsh basket as posted up t'other day.



If she's beaten, I reckon I'll be down on the winner and assume they're now too short based on beating a has-been.



So it will be tough for me to be impressed :highly_amused:
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Well I can’t control if she bleeds or not can I !!!!!

I have to trust she’s fit and sound....... if she is, she wins.

Obviously certain things are out of my control.
 
Kautothegreat8 said:
Well I can’t control if she bleeds or not can I !!!!!

I have to trust she’s fit and sound....... if she is, she wins.

Obviously certain things are out of my control.
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I understand they're out of your control....but you said you "can't see how she gets beat", then admitted there is a reason :highly_amused:




I understand you don't control whether horses bleed or not.

I'm with you though, if she's not affected by the bleedin', she'd want to be putting these away on the bridle for me!
 
With bleeders it’s often about recovery time, they usually need long periods (8+ weeks) between races and it’s interesting to note that Laurina’s two defeats have come when racing just 3 and 5 weeks after a previous engagement.
Just as interesting is that she’s won every time she’s had a lengthy break so there may be something in that.

It might therefore be worrying for backers that tomorrow comes 5 weeks from her previous run and Cheltenham is under 6 weeks away...
 
Kevloaf said:
I understand they're out of your control....but you said you "can't see how she gets beat", then admitted there is a reason :highly_amused:

I understand you don't control whether horses bleed or not.

I'm with you though, if she's not affected by the bleedin', she'd want to be putting these away on the bridle for me!
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Yeah she should win with ease. To be honest I really don’t understand why she ran over 2 miles last time out. This is her best trip and if she turns up in March 100% fit, I think she’ll be very hard to beat
 
Kautothegreat8 said:
Yeah she should win with ease. To be honest I really don’t understand why she ran over 2 miles last time out. This is her best trip and if she turns up in March 100% fit, I think she’ll be very hard to beat
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I can’t bring myself to back her in any bets, I don’t understand where the confidence comes from. I would much rather chance my luck with horse like Mister Fisher who is still double figures, a novice that has improved with every race. I’m intrigued to see how Nico gets on with her tomorrow but as it stands I can’t see past Mister Fisher for this race. He jumps well, travels and has got gears. Every other horse in the top 5 of the betting apart from maybe Allaho still have question marks over them.
 
With regards to the Scilly Isles race tomorrow I think GBB will run them ragged. Paul
Nicholls confidence in Grand Sancy has to be respected because when he’s backing one of his own with an under dog label attached it they tends to surprise and outrun their odds but Goodboy Bobby will win tomorrow I’m convinced.
 
The King Pimm said:
With regards to the Scilly Isles race tomorrow I think GBB will run them ragged. Paul
Nicholls confidence in Grand Sancy has to be respected because when he’s backing one of his own with an under dog label attached it they tends to surprise and outrun their odds but Goodboy Bobby will win tomorrow I’m convinced.
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Nicholls is always banging on about Grand Sancy.......... I’m happy to put a line through him as he quiet simply isn’t upto Grade one level.
 
Kautothegreat8 said:
Nicholls is always banging on about Grand Sancy.......... I’m happy to put a line through him as he quiet simply isn’t upto Grade one level.
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He couldn’t compete at 2 mile, he couldn’t keep up but maybe the extra few furlongs gives him a chance. I’m not committing money tomorrow on him but wouldn’t be surprised if he improves
 
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