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Marsh Novices Chase 2020 (was JLT)

Just a school around for Black Op there, none of the horses he beat are better than handicappers going forward.

The test for Black Op will be when he's against good horses that put his jumping under pressure! He failed against Defi Du Seuil and Lostintranslation twice last season... but they went right to the top of the tree in the Novice Chase division, and in fairness despite poor jumping he doesn't have LOADS to make up.

If his jumping holds up, it could make up those 4 and 7L defeats, putting him "right in the mix" for Novice Chases this time around...

On the other hand, he's going to be 9, has just won at Stratford and I can't think of many horses that would have that profile that'd be winning festival races off the top of my head.


A nice price at circa 25/1 for everybody on... but my gut tells me he isn't a festival winner in waiting. Definitely not saying he isn't a horse that can be in the mix.... he's still available at 16s which isn't a mean price... but I am tryring to be more selective this year and I'm going to leave him until halfway through a race where I've seen him jumping well at a faster pace (or under pressure) etc.
 
Kevloaf said:
Just a school around for Black Op there, none of the horses he beat are better than handicappers going forward.

The test for Black Op will be when he's against good horses that put his jumping under pressure! He failed against Defi Du Seuil and Lostintranslation twice last season... but they went right to the top of the tree in the Novice Chase division, and in fairness despite poor jumping he doesn't have LOADS to make up.

If his jumping holds up, it could make up those 4 and 7L defeats, putting him "right in the mix" for Novice Chases this time around...

On the other hand, he's going to be 9, has just won at Stratford and I can't think of many horses that would have that profile that'd be winning festival races off the top of my head.


A nice price at circa 25/1 for everybody on... but my gut tells me he isn't a festival winner in waiting. Definitely not saying he isn't a horse that can be in the mix.... he's still available at 16s which isn't a mean price... but I am tryring to be more selective this year and I'm going to leave him until halfway through a race where I've seen him jumping well at a faster pace (or under pressure) etc.
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Agree with loads of that, except the stratford bit.
And I have no loyalty towards the course whatsoever, it just has no logic to it.
Horses can win gold cups these days with one prep run at tramore. (how good is that as a training feat btw)
 
Mullins at Tramore isn't equivalent to Tom George at Stratford though.

The logic is horses win at perceived good tracks because the competition is stronger so they're better.

I'd be shocked if the horses black op thrashed today win a decent race all season between them.

I've not looked in to Stratford but no horse springs to mind?
 
The 2018 Supreme winner made his hurdles debut at Stratford... :devilish:
It's a track that Tom George uses for quite a few of his horses, often the higher rank / most promising ones in the yard. Summerville Boy, Seddon, Enemy Coast Ahead all took in races there early on in their career alongside Black Op yesterday.
So i'd say it's just clearly a track he quite likes as an opener before going onto more competitive races.

On Black Op - I'd agree he doesn't appeal too much at current prices. If the 25's were still available I probably would have added so fair play to those who have that price. Clearly a classy horse who has a host of decent horses in and around him over the last 2 seasons. Could very well do a 'Defi du Seuil' and put a disappointing season behind him and really kick on. Tom George's horses have almost always needed their first run in previous years as well so i'd mark the run up slightly with that in mind myself too. And his season last year wasn't even that bad. He looked the complete opposite of a natural over fences yet was still in and around horses who won their respective festival races.

Once we start to get a few more higher profile horses out in Ireland the spotlight will move away from him to a degree. The big price collapse has happened (as it can do with the first few well known horses at this time of year i.e Al Dancer another one) but he's probably only going to shorten a couple of points here and there now even if he repeats that performance next time out. So for me worth holding off and like Kev says see what he produces against better opposition...
 
Hopefully it'll be a stroll for Samcro today.
 
That is all you could really hope to see today. Beat nothing really, but he's fit, well and he can jump a fence, lovely.
 
perfect introduction there and glad to see him pushed out to the line also (noticed cash out was suspended
 
Couldn’t ask for much more than that. Was trying to get on the rsa but suspended during race, already got him for the jlt
 
The engine is still there that’s for sure and thought his jumping was very neat... making ground at most and being clever at some.
 
He got a lot better when out by himself, seem to keep jumping into the other horse early on

365/Skybet and WH all suspended their markets for the JLT, so have had a little bit more on any race at 7s.

8/1 for JLT so 1pt is worth the safety net
 
As a big Samcro backer for Cheltenham, I was pleased with that because he looked back to the horse of two seasons ago. Such a relaxed nature with a good cruising speed.

However, I’m in a lecture so I couldn’t say for sure but am I right in thinking he jumped markedly right more often than not
 
Slightly slow into them early on if anything but got better once he was allowed to go on and set his own pace, very tidy over them. Good start, would imagine he’ll have a good blow afterwards
 
been cut drasticallyto 4-1 cash outs close to 6/4 ish from a 16-1 price.
 
Middle_Of_March said:
As a big Samcro backer for Cheltenham, I was pleased with that because he looked back to the horse of two seasons ago. Such a relaxed nature with a good cruising speed.

However, I’m in a lecture so I couldn’t say for sure but am I right in thinking he jumped markedly right more often than not
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MOM

He jumped right early on, as soon as they went a better pace he straightened up. Would be something I’d watch in his next race though, how he jumps around other horses
 
Do we still see him here or the rsa? Obviously has a massive engine and suppose Elliott has the luxury of either imo 4/1 jlt and 12/1 rsa with 365
 
Not markedly right at all.
and going slightly right on a right handed turning track is normal I'd say
 
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