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Mares Novice Hurdle 2020

My biggest problem is that I'm only on Gypsy Island and Lamarckise win only :p
 
Kevloaf said:
My biggest problem is that I'm only on Gypsy Island and Lamarckise win only :p
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This is the downside of the Cheltenham Sky specials but I assume your win voucher is 25/1 so you can always lay some off and lock in a profit
 
Istabraq said:
This is the downside of the Cheltenham Sky specials but I assume your win voucher is 25/1 so you can always lay some off and lock in a profit
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Got a 33/1 win as well placed via twitter :)


I do enjoy having returns for the 1-2-3 in any race... this far out it is my aim.
 
Derek O Conner tweeted yesterday re Gypsy Island to say ‘she’ll be out soon and all going well’ with a pic of an aeroplane. Nice to hear all is well. Can’t wait to see her jump hurdles
 
charlie said:
Derek O Conner tweeted yesterday re Gypsy Island to say ‘she’ll be out soon and all going well’ with a pic of an aeroplane. Nice to hear all is well. Can’t wait to see her jump hurdles
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She already has...and got beat !
 
Lobos said:
She already has...and got beat !
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*This season! Not bothered she got beat on debut over hurdles. Raced keenly and made up 10+ lengths in the last 4 furlongs to lose a length. As the tempo of the race increased the better she jumped. Devoured the last two hurdles. Anyone have any ideas on where they plan to start her?
 
One at a big price for this I like is Queens Cave. Won today at Exeter after being beat first time by Silver Forever who I also like a lot for this race. That was Queens Caves first run for 18 months if you take out the ayr run where she was pulled up and found to have a fibrilating heart so fitness may have been a factor in the defeat. I agree with most on here it's hard to ignore the results of the previous runnings of this and only focus on Mullins and people rave about Gypsy Island, but 50-1 is enough to tempt me in. I also think Silver Forever is overpriced at 25-1 as well.
 
We all have those horses Lobos, it’s possible to get carried with other people’s euphoria for a horse. Always best to go with you own view.
 
Lobos said:
I really can't get that excited about her. I must be missing something.
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Each their own. Different horses excite different people. If we all found the same horses exciting life would be very boring! I do enjoy it though when a horse turns you. We all know who yours is #honeysuckle :)

I find it impossible not to be excited by her though. She lost nothing in defeat on her hurdling debut and I actually think there are far more positives to be drawn than negatives. The way she attacked her hurdles particularly towards the end of the race when making up 10 lengths really switching through the gears shows she can jump well and has a sound technique. She's taken off like a turbo jet out of O'Connor's hands at Fairyhouse and if there was any doubt in what she's left in behind, she then did exactly the same at Punchestown against a load of subsequent winners. She cost loads of money, shes a JP horse, sound judges of the game are giving her really strong shouts (like Ruby when he could have picked any one from the Mullins stable). You then have strong market support in the absence of seeing her or any significant news/stable update, and I just think that all of makes her collectively quite exciting, but I'll be waiting to see her on the track before I get too carried away.
 
charlie said:
Each their own. Different horses excite different people. If we all found the same horses exciting life would be very boring! I do enjoy it though when a horse turns you. We all know who yours is #honeysuckle :)

I find it impossible not to be excited by her though. She lost nothing in defeat on her hurdling debut and I actually think there are far more positives to be drawn than negatives. The way she attacked her hurdles particularly towards the end of the race when making up 10 lengths really switching through the gears shows she can jump well and has a sound technique. She's taken off like a turbo jet out of O'Connor's hands at Fairyhouse and if there was any doubt in what she's left in behind, she then did exactly the same at Punchestown against a load of subsequent winners. She cost loads of money, shes a JP horse, sound judges of the game are giving her really strong shouts (like Ruby when he could have picked any one from the Mullins stable). You then have strong market support in the absence of seeing her or any significant news/stable update, and I just think that all of makes her collectively quite exciting, but I'll be waiting to see her on the track before I get too carried away.
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Great write up. You are sucking me in. I suppose I just look at this race and find myself waiting for the next Mullins good thing in it. Need to branch out a bit!
 
Lobos said:
Great write up. You are sucking me in. I suppose I just look at this race and find myself waiting for the next Mullins good thing in it. Need to branch out a bit!
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He's gonna lose in it eventually!
 
That's true Charlie. I suppose it's clear GI is the current form pick here, however, the thing that puts me off is i just suspect she could just be a very good bumper mare. Chance she's been beating mares from ptps wanting hurdles, that'll probably improve for them- a horse like Minella Melody for example, point winner was running in bumpers, highly probable she'll improve for obstacles.. Then combined with the fact the best trainer of a mare hasn't unleashed his novice mares yet i think she's one i'd avoid at the prices quoted. There's a lot of water to go under the bridge yet. @ Fancy prices i probably should've acted to give myself a nice position, but not now.
Also, i think Colreevy whom she beat easily, clearly improved a massive amount for her first run in 347 days. Gypsy had a run on her that day. I wouldn't have her @ double GI's price at all. The issue i had is i think both are too short, wouldn't be surprised if Colreevy went against the boys at some stage like Relegate + Augusta Kate did after having races vs boys in a bumper.
 
Colreevy is entered up in a 2m maiden at Cork on Sunday.
 
jack1092 said:
That's true Charlie. I suppose it's clear GI is the current form pick here, however, the thing that puts me off is i just suspect she could just be a very good bumper mare. Chance she's been beating mares from ptps wanting hurdles, that'll probably improve for them- a horse like Minella Melody for example, point winner was running in bumpers, highly probable she'll improve for obstacles.. Then combined with the fact the best trainer of a mare hasn't unleashed his novice mares yet i think she's one i'd avoid at the prices quoted. There's a lot of water to go under the bridge yet. @ Fancy prices i probably should've acted to give myself a nice position, but not now.
Also, i think Colreevy whom she beat easily, clearly improved a massive amount for her first run in 347 days. Gypsy had a run on her that day. I wouldn't have her @ double GI's price at all. The issue i had is i think both are too short, wouldn't be surprised if Colreevy went against the boys at some stage like Relegate + Augusta Kate did after having races vs boys in a bumper.
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I completely understand anyone's reservations re GI particularly at that price. History has taught us very few good bumper mares translate that success over hurdles. Look at Relegate, great in bumpers but terrible jumper! The first reservation anyone would have with any bumper horse going over obstacles is obviously their ability to jump well. Gypsy Island has already answered that question and some. When she was asked to race and pick up the tempo her hurdling improved and she jumped low and fast - exactly what you want to see from a horse starting out over hurdles. After that it's all guesswork until we see her. You are right to suspect she may just be a very good bumper mare and her price is very short and could look stupidly short after her debut. Who know's. Personally, I can't get past the visual impression she gave me last year. I'll caveat what I'm about to say by emphasising the fastest way to the ante post cheltenham poor house is to blindly follow hype or whats said on preview circuits, I'm just finding it hard to shake multiple people deeply connected to stables with incredible strength and depth saying she is a complete weapon and their one to follow.
 
If people haven't got the price.
There is no need to try and crab the form.
Just say she isn't value at that price, and therefore not a betting proposition at the moment.
The form is rock solid, no matter how you spin it.
And I fail to see how anyone could watch (her last 2 runs) in particular, and not think she's potentially top class.
The one blot, was jockey error, giving what turned out to be a horse of reasonable ability, a soft, big lead in a steadily run race. She was therefore left with far too much to do in a race where they had clearly said to educate her.
 
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