Mares Novice Hurdle 2020

[Humble Pie]

Each their own. Different horses excite different people. If we all found the same horses exciting life would be very boring! I do enjoy it though when a horse turns you. We all know who yours is #honeysuckle

I find it impossible not to be excited by her though. She lost nothing in defeat on her hurdling debut and I actually think there are far more positives to be drawn than negatives. The way she attacked her hurdles particularly towards the end of the race when making up 10 lengths really switching through the gears shows she can jump well and has a sound technique. She's taken off like a turbo jet out of O'Connor's hands at Fairyhouse and if there was any doubt in what she's left in behind, she then did exactly the same at Punchestown against a load of subsequent winners. She cost loads of money, shes a JP horse, sound judges of the game are giving her really strong shouts (like Ruby when he could have picked any one from the Mullins stable). You then have strong market support in the absence of seeing her or any significant news/stable update, and I just think that all of makes her collectively quite exciting, but I'll be waiting to see her on the track before I get too carried away.

Can’t pick any bones in that
I’m happy with 16&12/1
You’ve even got Lobos “sucking!” -))))

 

[jack1092]

If people haven't got the price.
There is no need to try and crab the form.
Just say she isn't value at that price, and therefore not a betting proposition at the moment.
The form is rock solid, no matter how you spin it.
And I fail to see how anyone could watch (her last 2 runs) in particular, and not think she's potentially top class.
The one blot, was jockey error, giving what turned out to be a horse of reasonable ability, a soft, big lead in a steadily run race. She was therefore left with far too much to do in a race where they had clearly said to educate her.

Quevega, that’s your view.

I’ll spin it how I want too, and personally I don’t see any reason not too question the price.

 

[Scooby91]

If people haven't got the price.
There is no need to try and crab the form.
Just say she isn't value at that price, and therefore not a betting proposition at the moment.
The form is rock solid, no matter how you spin it.
And I fail to see how anyone could watch (her last 2 runs) in particular, and not think she's potentially top class.
The one blot, was jockey error, giving what turned out to be a horse of reasonable ability, a soft, big lead in a steadily run race. She was therefore left with far too much to do in a race where they had clearly said to educate her.

Its bumper form, against her own sex.
When was the last bumper horse to go anywhere near in the mares novice?
Barrington court ?
Getaway katie mai?

If she ran in the same race colreevy did, brilliant. But she diddnt. Yukon lil finished infront of colreevy in the race gypsy ireland won. it was clearly a pipe opener after a year off. Youd be foolish to take that literally.

Minella melody and daylight Katie who both had previous ptp form, have won in easy races 1st time up against horses that would be nothing but tailed off in the mares nov, to show GI beat them In a bumper. Great stuff. It shows they're alive and can jump (which we already knew)

Do you think, if she ran last year even though she was beaten over hurdles? She'd have won it easily?

As you've practically last years winner in there who was on hurdles debut. Who quite possibly isn't even 1st string.

 

[Quevega]

2 refugees stood on a beach.
The boat sails off in the distance.
One turns to the other and says.
“Looks a shit boat anyway. I hope it sinks”
.

 

[Quevega]

She’s not bad for a 33-1 or 25-1 shot is all, or bigger for one or two.

 

[Scooby91]

She’s not bad for a 33-1 or 25-1 shot is all, or bigger for one or two.

That isn't the chat though is it. Shes hyped to high heaven on this thread through mares bumper form. Anything but a win would seemingly be a bitter disappointment.

 

[Quevega]

Quevega, that’s your view.

I’ll spin it how I want too, and personally I don’t see any reason not too question the price.

Pretty sure I said that Jack

 

[Quevega]

That isn't the chat though is it. Shes hyped to high heaven on this thread through mares bumper form. Anything but a win would seemingly be a bitter disappointment.

But it's normal for people to get that way when a price shortens. It's what gives people that contribute on here a buzz (although I personally prefer them to win in the end) as I don't cash out for profit unless I think it's not a good bet anymore.

I was trying to suggest that for those that think the price is not value right now for whatever their reasoning. IMO - it seems a little unfair/wrong to crab the very good form and visual impression she has made, along with positive comments like the one from Ruby.

I understand that beneath all that. The Mullins will 'beat all' theory is more than likely going to stand up, and anyone that has gone big on Gypsy Island this far out and is still doing so, needs big balls (or a nice bank and can lose the money) cos Willie will have several coming at this mare (assuming she makes it there in one piece).

And the bumper mare stat is a little early, as the race is pretty new. And goes against you backing Posh Trish in this race last year

 

[Scooby91]

But it's normal for people to get that way when a price shortens. It's what gives people that contribute on here a buzz (although I personally prefer them to win in the end) as I don't cash out for profit unless I think it's not a good bet anymore.

I was trying to suggest that for those that think the price is not value right now for whatever their reasoning. IMO - it seems a little unfair/wrong to crab the very good form and visual impression she has made, along with positive comments like the one from Ruby.

I understand that beneath all that. The Mullins will 'beat all' theory is more than likely going to stand up, and anyone that has gone big on Gypsy Island this far out and is still doing so, needs big balls (or a nice bank and can lose the money) cos Willie will have several coming at this mare (assuming she makes it there in one piece).

And the bumper mare stat is a little early, as the race is pretty new. And goes against you backing Posh Trish in this race last year

That's all fair. I just think shes massively over hyped from thinking that bumper form, is the best form ever, with horses coming in from all disciplines.


posh trish had ptp form with colreevy, and colreevy was out (also backed and cashed). I saw that as superior to the bumper form of getaway katie mai who was almost fav, after winning some bumpers after being beaten in a ptp by posh trish. deffinately wouldnt have backed posh trish on her bumper form.

 

[charlie]

When was the last bumper horse to go anywhere near in the mares novice?

Race is only 4 years old, it will be won by a bumper horse eventually

 

[darlojim]

Think it's about time we let GI do the talking on the track

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Colreevy runs at Cork on Sunday

 

[jack1092]

If people haven't got the price.
There is no need to try and crab the form.
Just say she isn't value at that price, and therefore not a betting proposition at the moment.
The form is rock solid, no matter how you spin it.
And I fail to see how anyone could watch (her last 2 runs) in particular, and not think she's potentially top class.
The one blot, was jockey error, giving what turned out to be a horse of reasonable ability, a soft, big lead in a steadily run race. She was therefore left with far too much to do in a race where they had clearly said to educate her.

Pretty sure I said that Jack

No it’s not you’ve told me and anyone against her not to try and crab the form...

Great to see colreevy back and hopefully she puts up a performance against another potential decent one!

 

[Quevega]

No it’s not you’ve told me and anyone against her not to try and crab the form...

Quevega, that’s your view.

I’ll spin it how I want too, and personally I don’t see any reason not too question the price.

Just say she isn't value at that price, and therefore not a betting proposition at the moment.

 

[Quevega]

No it’s not you’ve told me and anyone against her not to try and crab the form...

Great to see colreevy back and hopefully she puts up a performance against another potential decent one!

I said there's no need to crab the form.
And it's rock solid - Fact.
especially in comparison to most other entries.

 

[Quevega]

Your original post was saying pretty much the same as me in anycase.
I agreed with pretty much everything, and the colreevy viewpoint that you share with Scooby is possibly valid (although we cannot be certain to that).

I would take exception to the comments about beating ptp's and they may improve for having obstacles in the way though.
Every horse alive or dead would run faster between two points, without hurdles or fences in the way.

Obviously you mean that they may be faster or slicker over obstacles than GI might be, and that this potential skill advantage may help narrow the gap in ability/speed we've seen so far, but again we don't really know that yet.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I've added Colreevy at 12/1 (and a bit at 11/1 any race just in case). Nice form boost from Abacadrabas the last day and willing to forgive her the run behind Gyspy Island as she had been off the best part of a year before that. They started 2/1 and 4/1 that day and it was clear much more was expected of her.

She has some very solid form in the book and sets a pretty decent standard for the rest of Willie's mares to aim at.

 

[jack1092]

I've added Colreevy at 12/1 (and a bit at 11/1 any race just in case). Nice form boost from Abacadrabas the last day and willing to forgive her the run behind Gyspy Island as she had been off the best part of a year before that. They started 2/1 and 4/1 that day and it was clear much more was expected of her.

She has some very solid form in the book and sets a pretty decent standard for the rest of Willie's mares to aim at.

Can't wait to see her. One thing that might be intersting is the fact she's raced against geldings in bumpers- relegate + Augusta Kate both did that before racing against them over hurdles...i wonder is she likely to do the same given they probably have one or two more for this. It's a guess.

Your original post was saying pretty much the same as me in anycase.
I agreed with pretty much everything, and the colreevy viewpoint that you share with Scooby is possibly valid (although we cannot be certain to that).

I would take exception to the comments about beating ptp's and they may improve for having obstacles in the way though.
Every horse alive or dead would run faster between two points, without hurdles or fences in the way.

Obviously you mean that they may be faster or slicker over obstacles than GI might be, and that this potential skill advantage may help narrow the gap in ability/speed we've seen so far, but again we don't really know that yet.

Agreed Q! Apologies, probably sharper than necessary in my reply, i'd had a few while on my hols.

 

[Scooby91]

I've added Colreevy at 12/1 (and a bit at 11/1 any race just in case). Nice form boost from Abacadrabas the last day and willing to forgive her the run behind Gyspy Island as she had been off the best part of a year before that. They started 2/1 and 4/1 that day and it was clear much more was expected of her.

She has some very solid form in the book and sets a pretty decent standard for the rest of Willie's mares to aim at.

Will be interesting to see how much pace she shows on sunday, will she cruise up and do the business, or will she come off the bridle and tough it out going away.

Obviously in that regard its a different prospect to what the likes of silver forever, minella melody and daylight katie have been running in.

If I was to back her today, i would hope that willie wouldnt run her in the royal bond after this, but he probably will. Assuming rightly or wrongly that shes beaten there, there may be a big over reaction, when you take into consideration the huge drop in class down to the mares races.

 

[darlojim]

Gypsy Island wins all doesn't she ? :very_drunk: :triumphant: