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Mares Novice Hurdle 2019

archie

archie

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Unashamedly a plug for my horse, Robin De Carlow, who won her maiden hurdle on Friday.

https://www.irishracing.com/news?he...Two-In-Her-Promising-Career&prid=192861&prt=L

In itself a fairly humdrum affair but made more interesting by looking at the two previous winners of this race.
2016 Airlie Beach (NHF RPR 107/RPR for this race 127)
2017 Mystic Theatre (115/131)
2018 Robin De Carlow (112/128)

The main stat for the short history of the Mares Novice is that the winner is a Mullins trained favourite so it's probably worth compiling a list of his possible runners and keeping an eye on how they progress. So far:

Robin De Carlow
Very like Airlie Beach in that she's not very big and was very green in her bumper.

Chante Neige
Fetching 3yo performance for Macaire but not seen since moving to Closutton. Favourite in the early betting.

Salsaretta
Came to Ireland with a big reputation. Fell in the race last season but won her maiden in May (RPR 126).

Colreevy
Near the top of the bumper fillies and mares. Yet to run over hurdles.

Relegate
Same as Colreevy.

Pakora
Whispers last season but didn't run. Won her maiden in May (RPR 132).
 
There will also be a number of expensive imports and there is currently a log-jam in mares bumpers because of the fast ground. Willie doesn't like running two in the same bumper unless one is owner ridden or there's black type up for grabs. As 7yos can't run in the Cheltenham bumper, if a current 6yo bumper mare is going to Cheltenham it will be in this race and it's worthwhile keeping an eye on the mares bumpers through the autumn.
 
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All the talk last year was that Salsaretta was the one and it was only when Laurina was on the track we all realised what a beast she was
 
I had Nicky Henderson's Daphne Du Clos marked for this years race before she got injured and was put away. Has anyone heard anything with regards her fitness? Very well thought of by all accounts. Jeremiah McGrath & Noel Fehily gave her glowing references this time last year. Earmarking this race as made for her with her turn of pace.
 
SeanRock said:
I had Nicky Henderson's Daphne Du Clos marked for this years race before she got injured and was put away. Has anyone heard anything with regards her fitness? Very well thought of by all accounts. Jeremiah McGrath & Noel Fehily gave her glowing references this time last year. Earmarking this race as made for her with her turn of pace.
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Probably 'put away' as same owner had Laurina, and she was on another level. Suspect DDC will be a solid chance for same connections this season and one I certainly had on my radar too. Her & Salsaretta will be my main 2 for the time being.
 
I like a Bhaji but Pakora looks the one for this race for me.
 
quevega said:
I like a Bhaji but Pakora looks the one for this race for me.
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I couldn't back an early season Mullins mare for this.

All 3 winners of this race to date haven't started their campaigns for their respective seasons before November. Also, Limini aside there is always one Mullins mare that takes the ante post market favourite yet another one emerges, last year it was Salsaretta, then Laurina took it, the season before it was Airlie Beach and then Let's Dance won the race. I'm not saying this a sure fire way of finding the winner but there are patterns emerging already, obviously the Willie Mullins runner who goes off favourite is the one, we have found that out after 3 runnings of this race already, but from an ante post perspective I can't be having any early season runners for him.

Currently, Salsaretta, Chante Neige & the Henderson horse, Daphne Du Clos would be my early challengers, but I probably won't back either of the Mullins pair until we see when they come out.

On a side note, does anyone know who now owns Chante Neige?
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I couldn't back an early season Mullins mare for this.

All 3 winners of this race to date haven't started their campaigns for their respective seasons before November. Also, Limini aside there is always one Mullins mare that takes the ante post market favourite yet another one emerges, last year it was Salsaretta, then Laurina took it, the season before it was Airlie Beach and then Let's Dance won the race. I'm not saying this a sure fire way of finding the winner but there are patterns emerging already, obviously the Willie Mullins runner who goes off favourite is the one, we have found that out after 3 runnings of this race already, but from an ante post perspective I can't be having any early season runners for him.

Currently, Salsaretta, Chante Neige & the Henderson horse, Daphne Du Clos would be my early challengers, but I probably won't back either of the Mullins pair until we see when they come out.

On a side note, does anyone know who now owns Chante Neige?
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I’d agree with that.

The task is to get on the right Mullins horse immediately after she hacks up first time this season.

Laurina immediately went short for this about 15 minutes after winning first time last season. If we can get in that 15 minutes slot this year, that’s where the insane value is at. But it’s obviosuky not easy.
 
According to Sky Sports Horseracing C.O.D, the Owner is Mme Mt Dubuc-grassa , .and trained by G. Macaire
Maybe hasn't been updated. ??
 
Sullivan owns Chante Neige.

Being held back a year when they had Laurina interests me a little.
 
cpfcpatriot said:
Sullivan owns Chante Neige.

Being held back a year when they had Laurina interests me a little.
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Is that a recent purchase. RP has the owner listed differently.

and where is scooby for a line on the French form? :disgust:
 
Kevloaf said:
Is that a recent purchase. RP has the owner listed differently.

and where is scooby for a line on the French form? :disgust:
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The RP site won’t reflect it until she has an entry. She was purchased the same time as Laurina, Msassa, Saglawy etc
 
https://twitter.com/mufc_fan_saf/status/871818622209011712?lang=en

I've no idea why she didn't run last season but the two obvious reasons would be either injury or that Willie decided to give her a year out to mature. The Twitter comment that she will jump a fence in time would suggest that she has a decent frame to grow in to and Willie never rushes them.

Pakora has an entry on Thursday. She definitely improved the last time and you certainly wouldn't discard her at this stage.

Robin De Carlow came 3rd to Mason's Daughter on Friday. An improvement on her first run but she got taken off her feet in the early stages so it's unlikely that she'd be suited by two miles. Mason's Daughter was well backed and has appeared in the betting for March but I'd be slightly surprised if she turned out to be Willie's first choice.
 
Pakora is declared tomorrow but we're unlikely to learn much as the opposition is very moderate.
 
archie said:
https://twitter.com/mufc_fan_saf/status/871818622209011712?lang=en

I've no idea why she didn't run last season but the two obvious reasons would be either injury or that Willie decided to give her a year out to mature. The Twitter comment that she will jump a fence in time would suggest that she has a decent frame to grow in to and Willie never rushes them.

Pakora has an entry on Thursday. She definitely improved the last time and you certainly wouldn't discard her at this stage.

Robin De Carlow came 3rd to Mason's Daughter on Friday. An improvement on her first run but she got taken off her feet in the early stages so it's unlikely that she'd be suited by two miles. Mason's Daughter was well backed and has appeared in the betting for March but I'd be slightly surprised if she turned out to be Willie's first choice.
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Archie, what do you think about 2 miles for colreevy ? I think she could well be the best of the bunch over hurdles, but not certain on trip.
 
Scooby91 said:
Archie, what do you think about 2 miles for colreevy ? I think she could well be the best of the bunch over hurdles, but not certain on trip.
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Well, she was favourite over Relegate for the mares bumper at the Dublin Festival so she obviously works well and she's only 5. Her pedigree doesn't exactly scream 2 miles but we always hoped that Eileen O would turn out to be Willie's best bumper mare so I probably mentally downgraded all his others.
 
Pakora - Very keen and a few mistakes... could be too early to say but I can’t see this being the Mullins number 1
 
Have had a quick recap over Daphne Du Clos in the bet365 archive. I'd forgotten how impressive her last run at Newbury was she travelled all over Western Ryder with her head in her chest only being pushed out 2f out to win as she liked. The runner up went on to finish a close up 5th in the Champion bumper (3 lengths off Fayonagh) next time out and later finished 3rd in the red hot Aintree bumper Lalor won that ITCF's was 4th in!

Even the form of her racecourse debut where she finished neck & neck 2nd to Mares Novice runner up Cap Soliel (on ground that the winner has been proven to relish) is very solid. DDC has had another summer to mature and will surely be a stronger mare for that.
 
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