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Mares Chase 2021

Arkle said:
BDD great fresh any chance they just rock up without a run plenty of schooling at home got to be abit of history everyone always looks at who won it first
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That's the likeliest outcome I'd say.
 
Arkle said:
BDD great fresh any chance they just rock up without a run plenty of schooling at home got to be abit of history everyone always looks at who won it first
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I can’t see this entering Mullins thoughts at all, can she win the G1 Mares hurdle is, for me, the only question he will be asking over the coming weeks...
 
So much being made of BDD and Concertista which I completely understand. But lets not forget another Mullins mare in Colreevy, to be able get back up and win the other day despite completely fucking the 2nd last needs to be chalked up massively in my book. It is the best performance over fences by a mare this season IMO and she must go there with every chance.

Maybe Willie think's he can win it with her and is better having two cracks at getting HIS mares Hurdle back? He has farmed that race so surely he wants his trophy back.

Is the above school of thought so inconceivable?
 
Istabraq said:
If I had a PP account I’d be hammering that but you can also use as a kind of roll up, if anyone is looking to get stuck into anything with PP today throw Benie in at 2/1 would be my advice...
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It’s clear she is the most likely winner and I have her for this at nice prices But locking up the amount of funds necessary to secure a decent payout on a 10 year old that hasn’t run for 10 months and hasn’t jumped a fence in public for three years would not be for me. The roll ups may make more sense though it seems some on this forum aren’t having the best of luck with those. 2s doesn’t give you lots to play with and on this one I’d rather be a bookie than a punter but genuinely the very best of luck for those that play.
 
I've always been of the view that the Mares Chase will be a serious consideration and the most likely outcome for Benie des Dieux.

She's 10 years old. I'd be certain this is her last campaign.
Which had me thinking that they could well send her to the race first time up.
Not exact circumstances given how long ago Benie was chasing (3 years ago) but don't forgot they sent Douvan first time up for the season in the Champion Chase (2018).
And he has a lot of history of sending Mares to the festival on their first run.
I really don't see that factor being an issue and the sole reason why they wouldn't go for it.

But one aspect I haven't really seen discussed and one that is making me potentially re-consider is whether Cheltenham might not be the 'be-all and end-all' this Spring.

In 2019 she followed up her Cheltenham run with trips to Punchestown and Auteuil for the French Champion Hurdle.
That would have been repeated last year before the season got cancelled.
Now if connections see her Spring campaign not just being about Cheltenham in isolation, staying hurdling is almost certainly the outcome.
And those races, particularly the French CH would be likely and desirable targets.
There is no Mares chase at the Punchestown festival, though there would be a grade 3 mares chase at Fairyhouse available in April.

Also, given how often they have stated how long Benie takes to get over and how much chasing takes out of her between races, we're likely to be getting very close to a cut off of getting any kind of run over fences in imo, even if she were ready to race (which we don't yet know). In 2018 she ran in a mares chase in early February but that was considered too close then to back it up.

So now i'm starting to be of the view that if all they want is to give her the best chance at Cheltenham, then the Mares chases still tops the list. But if they re looking to get more then one run into her this Spring, she won't be seeing fences.
 
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5/2 now, obviously didn't get enough people taking the 2s!
 
Big Bucks said:
5/2 now, obviously didn't get enough people taking the 2s!
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Enough people on at double figures perhaps :biggrin-new:


FWIW, I'd say that little push out 100% confirms the target isn't a done deal yet, making that 5/1 in the Mares Hurdle NRNB a cracking bet IMO.
 
Kevloaf said:
Enough people on at double figures perhaps :biggrin-new:


FWIW, I'd say that little push out 100% confirms the target isn't a done deal yet, making that 5/1 in the Mares Hurdle NRNB a cracking bet IMO.
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....or the 6/1 in the Stayers......
 
Lobos said:
....or the 6/1 in the Stayers......
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Much worse than 5/1 Mares IMO

Paisley and Thyme Hill, plus SDB and Fury Road, mean she's not a place 'good ting' at 6/1

Whereas in the Mares Hurdle, she's much closer to being a placed 'good ting'
 
Kevloaf said:
Much worse than 5/1 Mares IMO

Paisley and Thyme Hill, plus SDB and Fury Road, mean she's not a place 'good ting' at 6/1

Whereas in the Mares Hurdle, she's much closer to being a placed 'good ting'
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Agreed.Just playing :bee:
 
Kevloaf said:
Much worse than 5/1 Mares IMO

Paisley and Thyme Hill, plus SDB and Fury Road, mean she's not a place 'good ting' at 6/1

Whereas in the Mares Hurdle, she's much closer to being a placed 'good ting'
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Just about to type the same.
6-1 is about right. Doubt it'd be much shorter.
 
Kevloaf said:
Enough people on at double figures perhaps :biggrin-new:


FWIW, I'd say that little push out 100% confirms the target isn't a done deal yet, making that 5/1 in the Mares Hurdle NRNB a cracking bet IMO.
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Wouldn’t dispute that although just highlighting the 5/1 was also pushed out from 9/2, and she was also pushed out for the Stayers. I wonder if that in itself indicates anything...probably not
 
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I'm beginning to think Benie doesn't deserve the amount of discussion she gets. She's won 1 poor Mares Hurdle in 3 and has cost us thousands of pounds when Ruby failed miserably to jump the last hurdle and again when she was beaten by a better Mare last year. Add that to the fact we haven't seen her yet this season and that we only know that she has had a setback and been given no further info of her wellbeing when, at the same time her stablemate gets backed into favouritism for the only race she has ever ran in at the festival. Why do we do it ????
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
Wouldn’t dispute that although just highlighting the 5/1 was also pushed out from 9/2, and she was also pushed out for the Stayers. I wonder if that in itself indicates anything...probably not
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That she's not sparking, or nothing :cool-new:
 
Lobos said:
I'm beginning to think Benie doesn't deserve the amount of discussion she gets. She's won 1 poor Mares Hurdle in 3 and has cost us thousands of pounds when Ruby failed miserably to jump the last hurdle and again when she was beaten by a better Mare last year. Add that to the fact we haven't seen her yet this season and that we only know that she has had a setback and been given no further info of her wellbeing when, at the same time her stablemate gets backed into favouritism for the only race she has ever ran in at the festival. Why do we do it ????
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She's had so much discussion because of her target being fluid and being moderately high profile.

I still think she'd be odds on in this race however the PP traders seem to disagree, and they're right more often than me :offended:
 
Kevloaf said:
She's had so much discussion because of her target being fluid and being moderately high profile.

I still think she'd be odds on in this race however the PP traders seem to disagree, and they're right more often than me :offended:
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She would go off odds on. Perhaps they know she's gone this season and just want to invest our NRNB money for 2 months....:barbershop_quartet_member:
 
Lobos said:
She would go off odds on. Perhaps they know she's gone this season and just want to invest our NRNB money for 2 months....:barbershop_quartet_member:
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And at the same time by being so distracted with BDD, might we fail to back the winner.

I say again, apart from the potential penalty she might receive for winning a G1, what's wrong wiith Colreevy for this? I suspect WM will run at least 2 or 3 in this anyway, so is it not better to back Colreevy now NRNB before any news about BDD not running here surfaces. If BDD does run, then wouldn't most people want to be on WMs number 2 (pardon the expression) anyway. And if BDD doesn't go here then the price of Colreevy is very likely to be cut, irrespective of the race conditions.
 
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