Mares Chase 2021

[Outlaw]

There has to be an Irish dont show related treble on three Mares races.I think there are only 3 GB trained horses in top 20ish in the betting for this. And one of the is La Bague Au Roi.

Roksana MH,Diva MC e/w plenty on here made cases for both. Purely speculative of course.

 

[Kevloaf]

So question. And in preparation I have put on my suit of armour. Ignoring BDD for the purpose of my question... where do we think she’d end up if willie trained her. Genuine not a loaded question.

Agree with Quevega, we're lead to believe the owners were keen to go Arkle over the Novice Handicap Chase...and I think they'd push it.

Ignoring BDD, if she looked like Mullins' number 1 for the race, as he already had Chacun, she's perhaps more likely to run here if he could tell the owners.... but he'd need to tell them CPS would definitely beat her, and he wouldn't say that until after their final bit of work, maybe not even then.

So all in all, QMCC.

 

[Rooster Booster]

Agree with Quevega, we're lead to believe the owners were keen to go Arkle over the Novice Handicap Chase...and I think they'd push it.

Ignoring BDD, if she looked like Mullins' number 1 for the race, as he already had Chacun, she's perhaps more likely to run here if he could tell the owners.... but he'd need to tell them CPS would definitely beat her, and he wouldn't say that until after their final bit of work, maybe not even then.

So all in all, QMCC.

Thanks both. Nice to hear tbh. I read so much about how Willie dictates final destinations but I have always felt intuitively that there must be more collaboration with owners than some folks would have you believe. I hope some time in the future we are not regretting missing out on another tasty clash because of the arrival of this race.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Thanks both. Nice to hear tbh. I read so much about how Willie dictates final destinations but I have always felt intuitively that there must be more collaboration with owners than some folks would have you believe. I hope some time in the future we are not regretting missing out on another tasty clash because of the arrival of this race.

It's almost certain to happen at some point, unfortunately.

They'll introduce a 2mile 4f championship hurdle and then we can have a load of 5 or 6 runner races, with more odds on favourites.

​​​​​​They seem hell bent on diluting the quality of the festival which is a huge shame for NH fans.

 

[Kevloaf]

Thanks both. Nice to hear tbh. I read so much about how Willie dictates final destinations but I have always felt intuitively that there must be more collaboration with owners than some folks would have you believe. I hope some time in the future we are not regretting missing out on another tasty clash because of the arrival of this race.

I think that side of it, is more that some trainers are perfectly happy to pay their money and leave it up to him. That would be (my understanding) of plenty of owners work. Wylie and Ricci certaintly seemed that way. Then other big owners have racing managers who clearly have a big say (Suede/Munir, JP etc)... and then syndicates I suppose are the whole range.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I might be wrong, but I don't think BDD is just your average Willie Mullins horse. He seems to have a little extra affection for her. I can imagine he was absolutely gutted when she was beat by Honeysuckle last year. But he is nothing if not pragmatic. Would he favour possible revenge over an easier win in the inaugural Mares Chase? To me, that's a no brainer. Especially when he has Concertista who looks an absolutely fanatic candidate to take Honeysuckle on again with.

BDD and Concertista look by some margin his two best females. In that case, he will surely split them up.

 

[Lobos]

Maybe it'll be better for all of us if Honeysuckle goes to the English Champion Hurdle. Then Concertista can easily mop up the Mares Hurdle and Benie can easily mop up the Mares Chase. Back the double and if you are feeling brave throw in Honeysuckle as well for a mahoosive patent. Simple eh ??

 

[archie]

I might be wrong, but I don't think BDD is just your average Willie Mullins horse. He seems to have a little extra affection for her. I can imagine he was absolutely gutted when she was beat by Honeysuckle last year. But he is nothing if not pragmatic. Would he favour possible revenge over an easier win in the inaugural Mares Chase? To me, that's a no brainer. Especially when he has Concertista who looks an absolutely fanatic candidate to take Honeysuckle on again with.

BDD and Concertista look by some margin his two best females. In that case, he will surely split them up.

Even though I use them occasionally, the words 'no brainer' always translate for me as 'a mug solution for those with no brains'.

If you want an example of Willie's pragmatism I invite you to consider Vroum Vroum Mag. His wife's favourite horse (she rode her out most days) and one who was potentially high class over fences. Never jumped a fence in public after the age of 6.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Even though I use them occasionally, the words 'no brainer' always translate for me as 'a mug solution for those with no brains'.

If you want an example of Willie's pragmatism I invite you to consider Vroum Vroum Mag. His wife's favourite horse (she rode her out most days) and one who was potentially high class over fences. Never jumped a fence in public after the age of 6.

Im not sure I understand the point re VVM archie? There wasn't a Mares Chase at Cheltenham available to her, so not sure why the comparison applies?

 

[archie]

Im not sure I understand the point re VVM archie? There wasn't a Mares Chase at Cheltenham available to her, so not sure why the comparison applies?

VVM was rated 153 as a 6yo and widely touted for the Ryanair.

We will have to wait and see how this race shakes out but if he thinks that he has a strangle-hold on the race with other mares, Willie will absolutely think nothing of going for revenge and then a return to Mrs Ricci's paddock. We'll find out when the entries for warm-up races come out because it would be very much out of character for Willie to take her to a championship chase in her first run over fences in more than 3 years.

It is so not a no brainer but even I would concede that it might happen. It has, after all, been a funny old year.

 

[Kevloaf]

Stretching the narrative to call it a championship chase :fat:


There can't be many seasonal debuts in Cheltenham chase races over the years.... the hurdle ones are rare, but he's made them 'a thing' with Quevega and Penhill to name two...


Despite it being Willie, and a funny old year, it is still going to be odd if she doesn't have a chase prep... it's not impossible, it's just unprecedented :confused-new:

 

[Can't Catch Me]

VVM was rated 153 as a 6yo and widely touted for the Ryanair.

We will have to wait and see how this race shakes out but if he thinks that he has a strangle-hold on the race with other mares, Willie will absolutely think nothing of going for revenge and then a return to Mrs Ricci's paddock. We'll find out when the entries for warm-up races come out because it would be very much out of character for Willie to take her to a championship chase in her first run over fences in more than 3 years.

It is so not a no brainer but even I would concede that it might happen. It has, after all, been a funny old year.

I don't think you can compare the Ryanair to the Mares Chase though can you? Those races are a world apart.

I was suggesting that BDD and Concertista being split up is a no brainer. It is to me anyway, assuming both make it the Festival fit and well. Obviously nobody can rule out the possibility the Mares Chase ends up so lacking in quality that he feels Colreevy and Salsaretta are sufficient, which would then give him two darts at Honeysuckle.

But I would be very surprised to see his two best Mares take each other on if things evolve as they would like and they can get a prep run into BDD.

 

[archie]

We'll have to wait and see.

Given the owners and their respective influence, if they were to split up Concertista and BDD, I'd say that it was 50:50 whether BDD goes here or Concertista goes to the Champion Hurdle.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

We'll have to wait and see.

Given the owners and their respective influence, if they were to split up Concertista and BDD, I'd say that it was 50:50 whether BDD goes here or Concertista goes to the Champion Hurdle.

I don't understand the talk of Concertista being a CH candidate myself. She's well off that class to my eyes.

 

[Quevega]

I don't think you can compare the Ryanair to the Mares Chase though can you? Those races are a world apart.

I was suggesting that BDD and Concertista being split up is a no brainer. It is to me anyway, assuming both make it the Festival fit and well. Obviously nobody can rule out the possibility the Mares Chase ends up so lacking in quality that he feels Colreevy and Salsaretta are sufficient, which would then give him two darts at Honeysuckle.

But I would be very surprised to see his two best Mares take each other on if things evolve as they would like and they can get a prep run into BDD.

When he got apples taken off him.

It looked to me like he specifically wanted to get her beat, and ran Limini (6/4)& Vroum Vroum (11/4) to try and do so. They were both Ricci horses too.

And failed.

If he wants to get his mares hurdle back.
He'd not be too persuasive to owners to split BDD & Concertista IMO.

And it's grade 1 vs a grade 2.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

When he got apples taken off him.

It looked to me like he specifically wanted to get her beat, and ran Limini (6/4)& Vroum Vroum (11/4) to try and do so. They were both Ricci horses too.

And failed.

If he wants to get his mares hurdle back.
He'd not be too persuasive to owners to split BDD & Concertista IMO.

And it's grade 1 vs a grade 2.

The difference is there wasn't a Mares Chase then though Q. Had there been, would he not have split Limini and VVM up to try and win both? I'd say he would have.

 

[Quevega]

The difference is there wasn't a Mares Chase then though Q. Had there been, would he not have split Limini and VVM up to try and win both? I'd say he would have.

Yep, maybe.
And he had UDS as Fav for Ryanair too I think.
So I can totally see the other side of the debate.

I think in this scenario though he'd be just as happy going in double handed.
I was discussing this the other day, and since then his hand in the mares chase has weakened a little. So splitting them is more likely than it was.

It'll be the usual from Willie, and he'll just see what he has to play with and against nearer the day and make his mind up then.
Which is perfectly normal and makes shit loads of sense.

The issue with this though is like archie, myself and others have suggested. Will she have had a prep run ?

He seems to love to molly coddle his best mares and bring them out no earlier than February, and I personally don't believe she's injured (just not quite right, he'll have said).

But in the back of his mind will he also be thinking she runs her best race fresh, like the last 2 years.

She certainly looked different class when she turned up in the mares on seasonal debut and tipped up at the last.
And last year when she walloped the boys in the Galmoy.

To ask her to go over fences without a prep is a negative.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I'm not sure its a huge negative tbh. You'd assume plan A is to give her a spin before March. But if that doesnt happen, does the Mares Hurdle really become the likelier option?

They have always said she is a natural over fences. And they would surely give her plenty of schooling. Clearly fences are tougher than hurdles, but does it really change much? The Chase will still be the easier race. Do you go straight to the Festival without a run to take on a genuinely top class Mare, who beat you last year, in a Grade 1 over hurdles? Or saunter round against your lesser stable mates in a Grade 2 over fences?

As we have seen, she can still fall over hurdles. I just can't get beyond the fact he'd like to win the inaugural Mares Chase with a horse who is clearly a special one to him. Even without considering he now has a mare who is possibly her equal in Concertista for the hurdle.

 

[Quevega]

I'm not sure its a huge negative tbh. You'd assume plan A is to give her a spin before March. But if that doesnt happen, does the Mares Hurdle really become the likelier option?

They have always said she is a natural over fences. And they would surely give her plenty of schooling. Clearly fences are tougher than hurdles, but does it really change much? The Chase will still be the easier race. Do you go straight to the Festival without a run to take on a genuinely top class Mare, who beat you last year, in a Grade 1 over hurdles? Or saunter round against your lesser stable mates in a Grade 2 over fences?

As we have seen, she can still fall over hurdles. I just can't get beyond the fact he'd like to win the inaugural Mares Chase with a horse who is clearly a special one to him. Even without considering he now has a mare who is possibly her equal in Concertista for the hurdle.

It's not a huge negative at all.
For the reasons you've mentioned.

For some reason I can just envisage those words coming out of his mouth.
"Not had a prep over fences so going for the hurdle"

But I also think he'll say whatever suits the end game.

So could also envisage him saying...
"don't matter whether they're hurdles or fences to this mare"

 

[Can't Catch Me]

It's not a huge negative at all.
For the reasons you've mentioned.

For some reason I can just envisage those words coming out of his mouth.
"Not had a prep over fences so going for the hurdle"

But I also think he'll say whatever suits the end game.

So could also envisage him saying...
"don't matter whether they're hurdles or fences to this mare"

Agree. Nothing would surprise you with Willie!

But if BDD and Concertista are fit and well, I dont think they will take each other on. And if they don't, I cant agree with Archie that its just as likely to be BDD Mares Hurdle and Concertista Champion Hurdle as it is BDD Mares Chase and Concertista Mares hurdle. The latter scenario would surely be the much much more likely.