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Lay of the festival

Kevloaf said:
Apple's Shakira Fred Winter plot dead in the water then :rolleyes:
:highly_amused:
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She's not likely going to use it but I'd be interested to see her mark atm. 158 would be disgusting if it was.
 
Liammet said:
Enjoying reading all of your fancies
However,which of the favourites would you prefer to lay ?
Might Bite for me
Think he will puke his ring up half way up the hill and head for the Guinness tent
Just my opinion,what's yours ?
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I don't entirely agree with that Liammet , He may well head for the Guinness tent , wait for the others to catch him up and then
Trounce them all over the last 200 yards !! :highly_amused:
 
Happy to lay all horses with setbacks, Our Duke, Faugheen and Altior, if that lot win it will be an expensive week.
 
I'm actually finding it hard to make a strong case against a lot of the shorter favourites this year even though I know they all won't win :very_drunk:

Footpad 13/8
Buveur D'Air 4/6
Apple's Jade 5/6
Samcro 2/1
Altior 11/8
Cause of Causes 4/1
Apple's Shakira 7/2
Might Bite 4/1

Of course all horses in that list (bar Apple's Jade imo) have something against them, may be a tad too short for what they have so far achieved but I genuinely wouldn't want to lay any of them at those prices.

I'd be against:

Faugheen
Politologue
Brain Power (even if he beats UDS in the Clarence House)
Yanworth (over fences)
 
billymag said:
Happy to lay all horses with setbacks, Our Duke, Faugheen and Altior, if that lot win it will be an expensive week.
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I agree with Faugheen.

I see the case for Our Duke but it isn't a price I can afford to lay even if i was that way inclined ...

But Altior on the back of a wind op isn't even a negative for me. He didn't run and bomb out ... he's the best 2 mile chaser from last season (proven by his 8L demolition of Special Tiara) and he's been given a wind op...

If anyone thinks the Altior of last season wouldn't win this year's CC then speak up ......

If he wasn't ante post fav and so high profile it would just be .... horse had wind op, primed for first run back
 
billymag said:
Happy to lay all horses with setbacks, Our Duke, Faugheen and Altior, if that lot win it will be an expensive week.
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While I tend to agree, as someone who backed the likes of Petit Mouchir and Our Duke before their injuries I'm hoping you are wrong. Certainly wouldn't back them now at their current prices before their comeback runs.

Anyway question I have is does anyone know any examples from recent seasons where a horse has missed months of the season through injury only to come back and win at the Festival?
 
Anyway question I have is does anyone know any examples from recent seasons where a horse has missed months of the season through injury only to come back and win at the Festival?[/QUOTE]
I suppose you could put Annie Power into that category a few years back when she won the champion hurdle
However,they did manage to get a prep run into her in February prior to the festival
 
Quevega? Although not sure if injury was to blame for her absence, and she was running against inferior opposition.
 
Arctic Fire last year

Dropped a stone in the weights for the county
 
Little bump on this thread.

Who would you all lay from here?

My views of the shorties are:
- Laurina at evens could be too short but I haven’t decided what to do with her yet.
- I’ve not laid Footpad but I’ve been on Petit Mouchoir all year and have been topping up after his last run. I see the latter has shortened up in the last few days and Footpad has drifted slightly from the crazy price after the Irish Arkle.
- BD should win easy if Faugheen isn’t there or not at his best. A massively poor race without the peak Faugheen. BD will win.
- Apples Jade - clearly the best mare. Would win the stayers but Gigginistown will take the easier option.
- Samcro - wins any of the three novice hurdles. Will win a top class Ballymore and come out of it as the future superstar of racing.
- Altior - Anyone thinking Min beats Altior is absolutely crazy.
- Apples Shakira - Been on her all year and can’t see anything beating her. Espoir dallen was the danger in my eyes but that last run was terrible. Apples Jade sister really ought to win.
- Might Bite - Looked for an alternative all year and wanted to take him on (Thistkecrack originally, then with blaklion each way at 40s) but the race is really cutting up. Not a bet for me at the prices but he’s the likeliest winner in my eyes.
- Getabird - As impressive as he was last time, this could be a really good Supreme this year and 9/4 is quite short for what he’s done I think. If The Cap Fits I’ve taken him on with.




So really.. there’s a lot of short ones that I’d rather back than lay this year. If a gun was held to my head on which one of those won’t win, I’d go for Laurina. One decent run and suddenly she’s a stupid price. It will be a better race than it has been in previous years and even though Mullins always sends a good one to this race, I’d rather the field at evens. Footpads price at 8/13 the other day was far too short as well. Though it looks a weak Arkle on the whole.
 
Presenting percy rsa
Benie des dieux mares hurdle
samcro supreme (free money)
Willoughby court JLT
Un de sceau Ryanair
Mall dini 4 miler
Petit mouchoir arkle
Politologue qmcc
Max dynamite county hurdle
Waiting patiently any race market
Stay humble bumper


Iv put all the reasons In the individual threads previously.
 
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Scooby do you consider Mall Dini a lay in 4 miler coz you think he'll go elsewhere or coz you dont think like him in the race should he run?

(sorry must of missed your reasoning on the applicable thread, lots and lots of content to keep up with)
 
billymag said:
Scooby do you consider Mall Dini a lay in 4 miler coz you think he'll go elsewhere or coz you dont think like him in the race should he run?

(sorry must of missed your reasoning on the applicable thread, lots and lots of content to keep up with)
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Both,
but mainly the last part on price alone.

He's priced on support and I believe that support is because he has been deemed a very likely runner for connections and people have gone overboard with his chance because they have him at long odds. Rather than form in the book.
 
If I was in the lay game I’d definitely take on Apples Shakira, Max Dynamite and Politologue
 
Well, my lay of the Festival was originally Fayonagh (RIP) for the Supreme, of course I could not have known what was to happen to her further down the line.

Currently though I do think Un De Sceaux is too short for the Ryanair, as well as Presenting Percy in the RSA.

I also think Might Bite should be bigger, he's done nothing wrong, but this is a very tough looking renewal of the Gold Cup IMO, and if he doesn't go off bigger than his current price I have no doubt he will hit bigger in running.

I know this is a lay thread, but Faugheen looks the current best back-to-lay bet on the exchanges for me, IF he turns up, which is seemingly highly likely currently, he doesn't go off the 7/1 that he currently is on the exchanges and the Irish will be backing him for sure. He has the beating of the rest of the field as it stands too!
 
I don't do the exchanges so don't lay but if I did I'd be nominating 3 of Nicky's:
Apples Shakira - just think there are better 4yos out there.
Might Bite - all talk and no substance so far. I'd concede that he could be a superstar but I don't rate what he's done to date.
Altior - good horses who come back from a long absence and run again within 40 days have a very poor record at Cheltenham. According to Timeform, 150+ rated horses off 275 days or more then running a second time within 40 days at the Festival have a success rate of one (Riverside Theatre) from 106 since 2005/6.
 
archie said:
I don't do the exchanges so don't lay but if I did I'd be nominating 3 of Nicky's:
Apples Shakira - just think there are better 4yos out there..
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Hoping by this you mean Stormy Ireland, whispers round the yard when you've been there possibly ;)

All over this one and Apples Shakira, so one of them wins it's a good start to day 4 of the festival for me!
 
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