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King george 2024

You'd have to take any Irish runners seriously if they're prepared to get round the Holyhead port closure.
 
Interesting to see the real whacker take on il est francais for the pace angle. Could really set it up for a closer..
 
There isn’t a line of form over the last 2 years that suggests Banbridge is going to get anywhere close to winning over 3 miles. How he’s 3rd fav is beyond any kind of reasonable logic. His wins in the last 12 months over 2m 4f have been beating horses who wouldn’t ever be declared for a King George, his only career run over 3 miles in April 2022 saw him finish 14th from 17 runners, and unbelievably, everyone seems to have latched onto his last run when he fell at the last to an 11 year old over………2 miles.

It makes extremely little sense that this horse has been backed into 5/1, third fav.
 
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Hello folks, ventured over here to talk through the two bets I have had so far. Hewick at 20/1 and Ahoy Senor at 125/1...

Hewick, the winner two years ago, memorably for coming from the clouds to get up. Ground is crucial to him, 10 of his top 11 runs according to RPR have come on good to soft/yielding or faster (The one exception was when falling in the Gold Cup on soft). Ground is important for this horse. With the possibility of 13 runners and a fair bit of pace on then you are going to want to be able to jump and stay well, so I can see this race being set up nicely for Hewick. Assuming Royale Pagaille doesn't show up then Hewick will top the RPRs with his best adjusted of 175 in a field limited in improvers. Steady improvement on his two runs this year, he could be peaking here.

The Ahoy Senor bet is a real shot in the dark, but, 125/1 (now 100/1) for the horse with the highest official rating in the race is ridiculous and an insult. I can excuse that Betfair Chase run on awful ground with the jockey making the right decision to pull up 3 out, not putting the horse through the gruelling run up the straight. Take out that run and what price would he be on the back of the eye catching 3rd in the Old Roan? Only Royale Pagaille (Unlikely runner) and Banbridge (From unseating behind Energumene) has a higher recorded RPR this year than the 169 Ahoy got when carrying 11st 12lb in the Old Roan. He has a habit of jumping right so track should suit. Did disappoint in the race in 2022 but that was coming on the back of just 23 days from finishing 3rd to Noble Yeats in the Many Clouds at Aintree. Trainer on her website suggested that he has come out of that last race well. He does seem to enjoy Aintree but hopefully another flat track in Kempton could also be to his liking. He will need to find some rhythm and consistency to his jumping that can often let him down, but if he does get it right then he could well be in with a chance of placing.
 
I reckon when declared runners come in it will be one of the most interesting king George’s for a while.
probably without a real superstar unless ile est francais puts in his best.
I’ve fucking no idea what to bet on it though.
none of the prices stand out at minute
but I will have a bet cos you’ve got to in this race IMO
 
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The pace aspect will be interesting.

Il Est Francais will want to make all as will The Real Whacker, Juntos will want to be handy, you'd think they'll go back to racing handy with Ahoy Senor as well. Could be a bit of a burn up early on. IEF will fold when put under pressure IMO.

Could be a closer again like last year.

Envoi Allen I wouldn't back anywhere but Cheltenham and Down Royal.
BMG is finished.
LHomme Presse is interesting with Venetia bang in form. Ran well here 2 years ago but last season was fairly disappointing. Another one though that could end up being too close to the front of the 4 above take each other on.
Spillane's Tower - I doubt any of these would get that close to Fact to File over 2m4 and his form over 3m with Montys Star is fair enough. But possibly he's more a mid trip horse.
Corbetts Cross probably won't jump well enough to stay in contention.
Banbridge should stay but the performance behind Found A Fifty was awful and the Cork race was crap.
General en Chef won't be good enough.
Grey Dawning I'm not sure his form is actually worth anything.
Hewick will be running on like last year -14s currently but probably better to back in running.

I'll probably back something mid race once we see how the race is unfolding. The ones at the front will shorten but I think they'll end up setting it up for one of the ones in behind.
 
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I want to back grey dawning but it’s the haydock in heavy ground that’s stopping me. But he’s my most likely right now and just hope he’s the type that can take it.
Some do, I’ve seen them win 4 mile nationals and bounce out and win a week later.
 
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I backed Il est Francais - 8-1 , Grey Dawning - 20-1 , A/P a couple of months ago .. I'll stick to those two ..
, although i am expecting Spillanes to run well. , if the John Durkan is a good guide .
 
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Corbetts Cross was entered and has just been taken out as of 9.30am. Bit strange

Edit - Re-entered at 9.40
 
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Runragged said:
Hello folks, ventured over here to talk through the two bets I have had so far. Hewick at 20/1 and Ahoy Senor at 125/1...

Hewick, the winner two years ago, memorably for coming from the clouds to get up. Ground is crucial to him, 10 of his top 11 runs according to RPR have come on good to soft/yielding or faster (The one exception was when falling in the Gold Cup on soft). Ground is important for this horse. With the possibility of 13 runners and a fair bit of pace on then you are going to want to be able to jump and stay well, so I can see this race being set up nicely for Hewick. Assuming Royale Pagaille doesn't show up then Hewick will top the RPRs with his best adjusted of 175 in a field limited in improvers. Steady improvement on his two runs this year, he could be peaking here.

The Ahoy Senor bet is a real shot in the dark, but, 125/1 (now 100/1) for the horse with the highest official rating in the race is ridiculous and an insult. I can excuse that Betfair Chase run on awful ground with the jockey making the right decision to pull up 3 out, not putting the horse through the gruelling run up the straight. Take out that run and what price would he be on the back of the eye catching 3rd in the Old Roan? Only Royale Pagaille (Unlikely runner) and Banbridge (From unseating behind Energumene) has a higher recorded RPR this year than the 169 Ahoy got when carrying 11st 12lb in the Old Roan. He has a habit of jumping right so track should suit. Did disappoint in the race in 2022 but that was coming on the back of just 23 days from finishing 3rd to Noble Yeats in the Many Clouds at Aintree. Trainer on her website suggested that he has come out of that last race well. He does seem to enjoy Aintree but hopefully another flat track in Kempton could also be to his liking. He will need to find some rhythm and consistency to his jumping that can often let him down, but if he does get it right then he could well be in with a chance of placing.
Click to expand...

Neither declared. I'll stick to the Cheltenham threads!
 
Quevega said:
I want to back grey dawning but it’s the haydock in heavy ground that’s stopping me. But he’s my most likely right now and just hope he’s the type that can take it.
Some do, I’ve seen them win 4 mile nationals and bounce out and win a week later.
Click to expand...

Different race so may not be relevant but years ago I read a Gold Cup stat that it’s rarely if ever won by a horse who in that season ran on heavy ground. Seems an amazing stat but it seems to hold up in the GC. King George is of course completely different race and track. Presumably what lays behind it is that horse take a lot of out of themselves on heavy ground.
 
Quevega said:
I want to back grey dawning but it’s the haydock in heavy ground that’s stopping me. But he’s my most likely right now and just hope he’s the type that can take it.
Some do, I’ve seen them win 4 mile nationals and bounce out and win a week later.
Click to expand...

Not sure grey dawning will like the track myself. Looked very uncomfortable at Exeter going right handed over fences from memory.

Il have to watch it back to see.
 
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Added a second one. Spillane’s tower.
Race most of his races right handed
scope to improve
will sit in whilst 2-3 cut themselves up from the front, plenty of pace

I was just imagining where the likes of Grey Dawning, Banbridge and co would finish in the John Durkan, and see them finishing 5th by 3-4 lengths

that race is going to generate winners
 
Grey dawning 15-2 B365 reluctantly
If bravemansgame goes 16-1 4 places I’ll have that as well
Spillane most likely winner so may back him if I can get 4-1+
 
I landed on L'Homme Presse despite the ground.
Small cover Envoi Allen...
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
Not sure grey dawning will like the track myself. Looked very uncomfortable at Exeter going right handed over fences from memory.

Il have to watch it back to see.
Click to expand...

My suspicions were correct. Looked very awkward around the tight right handed track.

Banbridge did well to get up. Happy with the 7/1 sp.
 
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