Kentucky/Guineas Yankee

[Kevloaf]

Good stuff Kev :encouragement: fancy anything for any of the races? Think we'll be needing a 2000 guineas pick this month..

Unfortunately I didn't get in to the flat last season so only caught the back end, meaning City Of Troy caught my eye and then AOB comments were enough to convince me that'll do :biggrin-new:

So I'm no help!

 

[Monty's Pass]

Yeah it's hard to completely ignore those kind of comments from Aidan, presumably he'll head to Newmarket without a run so you'd hope he won't go any shorter.. that is until Aidan confirms he's alive and well and says something like "he looks a picture" then he'll be 1/2 :cower:
Will probably have to get him in at least one of these Yankees come end of Feb/March as he could end up being an impressive winner but evens doesn't appeal this far out and they've had a bit of a dry spell in recent years.

7 of the last 10 winners went there without a run (8 if you include Chaldean) so although there's a couple in behind City Of Troy in the betting that have shown promise there doesn't seem to be too many to get overly excited about as of now.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Aidan has a new best horse every year

He is a stallion salesman after all

 

[Zachx02]

Maybe do Henry longfellow for the french 2000?

 

[Monty's Pass]

Aidan has a new best horse every year

He is a stallion salesman after all

Haha! this is true.

 

[Monty's Pass]

Maybe do Henry longfellow for the french 2000?

Will he take in both races? I do really like him tbf. Looks like he'll be a proper miler even though he should get further. If it came up soft in May I'd back him regardless of who Ryan picks.

 

[HoldenTheReins]

Will he take in both races? I do really like him tbf. Looks like he'll be a proper miler even though he should get further. If it came up soft in May I'd back him regardless of who Ryan picks.

I remember reading or hearing that they are going to split City Of Troy and Henry Longfellow if they are both well. City Of Troy going for the English classics and Henry down the French classics.

 

[Monty's Pass]

I remember reading or hearing that they are going to split City Of Troy and Henry Longfellow if they are both well. City Of Troy going for the English classics and Henry down the French classics.

Ah ok, thats good to know :encouragement: would definitely be a firm favourite for that then. Don't think the French 2000 is really priced up anywhere at the moment though but would certainly be of interest when most bookies do.

 

[Zachx02]

First qualifying race of the year tomorrow at oaklawn, nothing really screaming out as a contender though

 

[Monty's Pass]

Hope everyone had a good Christmas and new year, will put up some selections by tomorrow.

 

[Monty's Pass]

While we're still a fair way out it looks like another e/w play this month.

Selections for December.

2000 guineas
ROSALLION
I had looked at a couple of bigger priced horses but there wasn't enough certainty about trip and target to include them this time.
The selection is a solid e/w proposition who could definitely have what it takes to win. We know the target, his form looks good and he's in the right hands to have him in top form for the day.

1000 guineas
ONE LOOK
Really impressed on debut in the goffs millions and as Zach said she already has the irish entry. Hoping connections aim high with her and she can mix it at the top level.

Kentucky Oaks
LIFE TALK
Bounced back after finishing 4th at the Breeder's Cup with a grade 2 stakes win in early December. Made all that day and looked to kick on again when the 2nd came to her round the home turn. Didn't beat much aside from the 2nd who had decent form. Beaten twice by Breeder's Cup winner Just FYI but there's hope she'll have the improvement required come May to be on the premises at the business end.

Kentucky Derby
EL CAPI
Was very tempted to put Nysos in this month but while he's still with Bob and not collecting Derby points it might be best to hold off until he goes to Tim.
Really liked the way El Capi won on debut over 7F at Aqueduct. Looks to have plenty of pace but stepping up in distance doesn't look an issue either. Trainer will be keen to remain at the top table and he looks to have a nice one here with El Capi who's a decent price currently at 40's.

All odds with 365

December Yankee
Rosallion 10/1
One Look 12/1
Life Talk 16/1
El Capi 40/1


Good luck all :encouragement:

 

[parimutuel]

Definitely, be some good ones to come out of them surely. What did you make of Mage's brother Dornoch last weekend?

Better late than never MP :abnormal: I've backed him and have been following him for the Mage connection and think he's improving nicely, showed some fighting quality too in that last race.
Good trainer in Danny Gargan, looks a solid each way bet. Not sure now but he was a 10/1 favourite with one of the U.S. bookies so surprised 33/1 is still available with 365.

 

[Zachx02]

As there hasn't been much activity here, I thought I'd post about this as it could be included in one, White Abbario for the dubai world cup at 8s looks a mighty big price and I think I recall dutrow saying it could be on the agenda alongside the saudi cup

 

[Monty's Pass]

As there hasn't been much activity here, I thought I'd post about this as it could be included in one, White Abbario for the dubai world cup at 8s looks a mighty big price and I think I recall dutrow saying it could be on the agenda alongside the saudi cup

Yeah it looks like he's being prepared for Saudi so providing he comes out of that race well enough it makes perfect sense to take in Dubai before coming back to the States. I think 8's is very fair as if he beats Derma and Co with as much authority as he did in the classic then he'd be a short price fav for Dubai, I wouldn't even be put off if he ran well in defeat tbh.

Good shout, will likely put him in for this month :encouragement:

I probably started this thread a month or two too early but things should pick up a bit soon with plenty to come out over the next 6 weeks or so.

 

[Monty's Pass]

Better late than never MP :abnormal: I've backed him and have been following him for the Mage connection and think he's improving nicely, showed some fighting quality too in that last race.
Good trainer in Danny Gargan, looks a solid each way bet. Not sure now but he was a 10/1 favourite with one of the U.S. bookies so surprised 33/1 is still available with 365.

That is a nice price for a horse so well related, he did battle back bravely which is always good to see. Seems the 2nd is a nice horse too and I'd be keen to see him out again as he didn't exactly have a dream trip.

We've seen a fair few nice prospects so far and things will heat up as some start to face off against eachother and the points races become deeper.

I attempt to rank a top 5 every month or so, be interested to hear how you see it as far as the Derby is concerned.

 

[parimutuel]

As it stands at the moment Monty's Pass l think the top five in the betting is about right. Fierceness, Muth, Nysos, Dornoch and Locked. Nysos & Muth having the extra risk factor. However that might all change by the end of the month.......

Bob Baffert has until the 29th Jan to transfer any Kentucky Derby/Oaks horses to another trainer.

​​​​​​So obviously hoping Muth & Nysos transfer but who knows and previously it hasn't worked out too well anyway even though IMO Nysos is the most exciting prospect out of all them.

 

[Monty's Pass]

As it stands at the moment Monty's Pass l think the top five in the betting is about right. Fierceness, Muth, Nysos, Dornoch and Locked. Nysos & Muth having the extra risk factor. However that might all change by the end of the month.......

Bob Baffert has until the 29th Jan to transfer any Kentucky Derby/Oaks horses to another trainer.

​​​​​​So obviously hoping Muth & Nysos transfer but who knows and previously it hasn't worked out too well anyway even though IMO Nysos is the most exciting prospect out of all them.

Nysos has looked very good I agree, could be into single figure price if and when the switch of yards is confirmed.

Track Phantom another with some nice wins under his belt and runs again this weekend. I don't fancy him for the KD currently but if he keeps impressing he'd enter calculations at around 25/1

Keen to see El Capi entered up again, hasn't worked for a few weeks but trainer said he'd be brought along slowly after his maiden so hopefully nothing is amiss. Had a bit of a form boost with Conquest Warrior winning the other week and seemed to suprise them how well he did it and although there was speed bias that day his performance was backed up on the clock. He's an e/w play at 40's especially when he starts working again.

 

[Monty's Pass]

This month's picks:

Dubai World Cup
White Abarrio
As selections are thin on the ground and the 2000 guineas doesn't appeal as much it was suggested to include White Abario in this month's and he's a standout 8/1 with Skybet which is a great price for a horse who won the Classic and has already defeated the general fav/2nd fav in Derma Sotagake. Intentions are to run in the Saudi Cup and if he comes out of that race well he'd surely take in this race before heading back to the States and a win in the Saudi Cup would make 8/1 look like a gift more so than it already is Imo.

1000 Guineas
Fallen Angel
Had a great 2 year old season culminating in a win in the Moyglare, looked very good that day even with the fav failing to fire. Connections very excited with her and at a general 8/1 she's not the worst price in the world for what she's achieved already. I think it's a race that if it was run five different times you could have five different winners but she's well worth having onside as unlike some of her rivals she's shown consistency and looks to have the scope to keep on improving throughout her 3 year old season. Think connections planned to go straight their with her so not likely to see her again until May.

Kentucky Oaks
Candied
Case made for her in the November yankee. She should be out on 10th Feb for her seasonal debut and a strong performance would send her to favourtism so wanted to get her in one last time. Out of the Breeder's Cup runners she's the one I like the most at this stage and she's still an ok price around 12's.

Kentucky Derby
Fierceness
Extremely impressive winner of the Juvenile back in November and with his seasonal debut being on the 3rd Feb in the Holy Bull against beatable horses this was the time to get him in at around 10/1 which i still think is a very fair price and could more than half if he shows anything like what he did at the Breeder's Cup. Acid test will come further down the line when he meets other genuine contenders but won't be meeting horses like Locked until the KD so he has the opportunity to go there unbeaten since the BC and he certainly looks good enough to do that. Seems like Baffert is going to shun Churchill with at least some of his nice prospects which only adds to Fierceness' chances and potential price cut before he's even raced again woth deadline being Monday 29th.

I think he's a better horse than connections fav of last year Forte and I'm very excited to see him out again on Saturday along with seeing some other cracking races this weekend state side.

January Yankee
WHITE ABARRIO 8/1
FALLEN ANGEL 8/1
CANDIED 12/1
FIERCENESS 10/1

All prices with Skybet

 

[parimutuel]

This month's picks:

Dubai World Cup
White Abarrio
As selections are thin on the ground and the 2000 guineas doesn't appeal as much it was suggested to include White Abario in this month's and he's a standout 8/1 with Skybet which is a great price for a horse who won the Classic and has already defeated the general fav/2nd fav in Derma Sotagake. Intentions are to run in the Saudi Cup and if he comes out of that race well he'd surely take in this race before heading back to the States and a win in the Saudi Cup would make 8/1 look like a gift more so than it already is Imo.

1000 Guineas
Fallen Angel
Had a great 2 year old season culminating in a win in the Moyglare, looked very good that day even with the fav failing to fire. Connections very excited with her and at a general 8/1 she's not the worst price in the world for what she's achieved already. I think it's a race that if it was run five different times you could have five different winners but she's well worth having onside as unlike some of her rivals she's shown consistency and looks to have the scope to keep on improving throughout her 3 year old season. Think connections planned to go straight their with her so not likely to see her again until May.

Kentucky Oaks
Candied
Case made for her in the November yankee. She should be out on 10th Feb for her seasonal debut and a strong performance would send her to favourtism so wanted to get her in one last time. Out of the Breeder's Cup runners she's the one I like the most at this stage and she's still an ok price around 12's.

Kentucky Derby
Fierceness
Extremely impressive winner of the Juvenile back in November and with his seasonal debut being on the 3rd Feb in the Holy Bull against beatable horses this was the time to get him in at around 10/1 which i still think is a very fair price and could more than half if he shows anything like what he did at the Breeder's Cup. Acid test will come further down the line when he meets other genuine contenders but won't be meeting horses like Locked until the KD so he has the opportunity to go there unbeaten since the BC and he certainly looks good enough to do that. Seems like Baffert is going to shun Churchill with at least some of his nice prospects which only adds to Fierceness' chances and potential price cut before he's even raced again woth deadline being Monday 29th.

I think he's a better horse than connections fav of last year Forte and I'm very excited to see him out again on Saturday along with seeing some other cracking races this weekend state side.

January Yankee
WHITE ABARRIO 8/1
FALLEN ANGEL 8/1
CANDIED 12/1
FIERCENESS 10/1

All prices with Skybet

Cheers MP :encouragement: I like the Dubai WC angle

 

[parimutuel]

Forever Young ​​​​​​

In what still seems a very open Kentucky Derby, thought I'd throw this one's hat into the ring.
He received the highest Japanese dirt rating ever for a 2YO. Not raced this year yet but is favourite for the Saudi Derby (no points) on Saturday (not much time for the Yankee )
Then, if all goes to plan, on to the UAE Derby at the end of March.
He's 20/1 with b365.
Hoping he's a superstar as the race really needs it let alone the Triple Crown.
​​​​​​FWIW I also have him as a single.