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Kentucky/Guineas Yankee

Just watching back the big 2yo uk races to jog my memory

the ones that impressed me were

Shadow of light super impressive winning the middle park and won the dewhurst despite being on the wrong side of the track

but given how much speed he showed in the middle park, will he stay in the guineas and will he train on? He's a half brother to earthlight who also won the middle park but didn't hit the heights at 3

Commonwealth cup? Or even the jersey if he dissapoints beforehand

Don't really like the form lines featuring Henri matisse and camile pissaro

The obrein horse i like the look of is Twain who won his maiden then won a group 1 8 days later. Hed have won that race in france by miles had he not been so green. Perhaps he could be more of a Derby horse than a guineas one though as he got outpaced for a few strides before getting going in france and you can't do that in a guineas.

Hotazhell won the racing post trophy from delacroix which again looks fairly muddling form.

Really struggling to pin one down atm

Shadow of light looks the best on 2yo form but a mile might be a furlong to far for him.

Ancient truth has vital course experience but hes not shown me quite enough and his dam didnt train on from 2 to 3.

A puzzle this year me thinks

Will watch the fillies races now
 
We have a shortie for the 1000

Desert flower who won the fillies mile and the may hill beating obrein filly January both times

The question here is does obrein have something better than January

The answer is obviously yes in lake victoria who won the moyglare, the Cheveley park and the breeders cup juvenile fillies

If she were to run id be strong on her but that doesn't sound all that likely

He also has Fairy Godmother who won at Royal ascot rattling home but then got injured and never got the chance to run over further

Exactly is another one of his and he's won this with several similar types who ran loads of times at 2 didn't look anything special then won the guineas. She definitely has that mother earth/hermosa type of profile (love was similar too but she did win the moyglare)

Another puzzle

Think il wait and if lake victoria doesn't run will surely get a nice price on exactly
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
Just watching back the big 2yo uk races to jog my memory

the ones that impressed me were

Shadow of light super impressive winning the middle park and won the dewhurst despite being on the wrong side of the track

but given how much speed he showed in the middle park, will he stay in the guineas and will he train on? He's a half brother to earthlight who also won the middle park but didn't hit the heights at 3

Commonwealth cup? Or even the jersey if he dissapoints beforehand

Don't really like the form lines featuring Henri matisse and camile pissaro

The obrein horse i like the look of is Twain who won his maiden then won a group 1 8 days later. Hed have won that race in france by miles had he not been so green. Perhaps he could be more of a Derby horse than a guineas one though as he got outpaced for a few strides before getting going in france and you can't do that in a guineas.

Hotazhell won the racing post trophy from delacroix which again looks fairly muddling form.

Really struggling to pin one down atm

Shadow of light looks the best on 2yo form but a mile might be a furlong to far for him.

Ancient truth has vital course experience but hes not shown me quite enough and his dam didnt train on from 2 to 3.

A puzzle this year me thinks

Will watch the fillies races now
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Twain's form isn't stacking up.

What I don't understand is Expanded getting Newmarket experience last year but might go to the Irish guineas, hmmm....
 
HoldenTheReins said:
Twain's form isn't stacking up.

What I don't understand is Expanded getting Newmarket experience last year but might go to the Irish guineas, hmmm....
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I was looking at him then went to the derby market expecting 14s-20s and he's 8/1 lol

Wouldn't expect the form of that saint cloud race to be strong

He was miles the best really but he was very green. The question is was it greeness or is he a dodgepot as he was throwing his head all over the place when he hit the front

not many horses win a group 1 8 days after their racecourse debut he could be a big improver at 3

I'm not sure obreins colts are much good with a view to the guineas (queue him having the 1-2-3)
 
You might be able to get a better price on sovereignty if he gets turned over on the weekend due to Alvarado not being able to ride. God forbid they get dettori to ride, why not being Buick over to ride him
 
Zachx02 said:
You might be able to get a better price on sovereignty if he gets turned over on the weekend due to Alvarado not being able to ride. God forbid they get dettori to ride, why not being Buick over to ride him
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Pretty much what I was thinking but already invested now… still expect him to win at the weekend but Alvarado missing has stopped me wading into the 7/4
 
Ancient truth out of guineas according to the trader who said TLIW and LV aren't going
 
Zachx02 said:
I've had a small bet on sandman at 66/1 for the derby, thought he did well yesterday despite his crap break
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Well, at least i'll be going into it with one good dart, also snagged 40/1 tappan street after the florida derby
 
How do we see the Derby now then folks… shame he didn’t win last night but I still think the race will be set up for Sovereignty and think 12s is very fair.
 
Morley Street said:
How do we see the Derby now then folks… shame he didn’t win last night but I still think the race will be set up for Sovereignty and think 12s is very fair.
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I don't really agree with the race being set up for him, in comparison to years previous there's hardly any speed in this race at the moment, Owen Almighty and Citizen Bull are the only ones who I can think who'd set it up and I don't think they'd fight eachother on the front end.

Now that may change if neoequous and getaway car don't run so John Hancock would most likely draw in if he can, but if he doesn't I don't think it'll be a blitzing fast pace for closers this year
 
Zachx02 said:
I don't really agree with the race being set up for him, in comparison to years previous there's hardly any speed in this race at the moment, Owen Almighty and Citizen Bull are the only ones who I can think who'd set it up and I don't think they'd fight eachother on the front end.

Now that may change if neoequous and getaway car don't run so John Hancock would most likely draw in if he can, but if he doesn't I don't think it'll be a blitzing fast pace for closers this year
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Set up was the wrong terminology on my part as I don’t think he needs a pace collapse… a reproduction of last night when Mott has him fully wound up over an extra furlong and with Alvarado back on board, will do for me. Who’s your main fancy now Zach?
 
Morley Street said:
Set up was the wrong terminology on my part as I don’t think he needs a pace collapse… a reproduction of last night when Mott has him fully wound up over an extra furlong and with Alvarado back on board, will do for me. Who’s your main fancy now Zach?
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I can't believe I'm somehow coming around to Citizen Bull but I don't think hes that good and has just had a load of front end freebies. I'm hoping Barnes can just stalk next weekend and show how good he really is, as I don't know if I posted on here other than messaging HoldenTheReins but Barnes lost a shoe in the San Felipe and still ran a 105 beyer on the front
 
It'll be a very stressful watch on saturday for barnes backers given only 75% of points will awarded, a 3rd wont get him in the derby
 
Excuse my profanity, but fuck juan Hernandez, he's the most privileged rider in the states he doesn't know how lucky he is and still has no idea what he's doing
 
Last big Derby trial tonight and as a Sovereignty backer, I’m hoping River Thames can frank the form… taken the 3s for tonight and topped up on the linked form double with Sovereignty
 
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