Juvenile Hurdlers 2020/2021

[Kotkijet]

Great stuff Kotkijet, very impressive .

Cheers NC. I think reading the rollercoaster of your "did he back it?/didn't he back it?" saga was almost as compelling as the race itself! I am sorry you abandoned ship but such is the nature of these things and one of the reasons why I choose not to gamble - all too often has a perfectly enjoyable race been spoiled by an overcooked bet I am glad you got something out of the experience in any case... Out of curiosity, what was it that put you off about Orchestral Rain's flat run? I am always interested about learning things that others have spotted which I may have missed or been unable to see.

Great effort that Kotkijet. Your top 5 finishing in the top 5 :applause:

Nice one CoD! Not quite a Michael Dickinson level of accomplishment but still pretty pleasing

Just seen this Kotkijet and very early proof your efforts are valuable.
Look forward to the next installment...

Thank you Istabraq.

With regards to your earlier comment... It is true that these early season races tend to be a lower standard affair, even if the likes of Barizan, Countrywide Flame, Fair Along, Anzum, Native Friend and Wahiba competed before September. Nevertheless, I think that these types of races not only meet that "Can they do it on a Tuesday in Stoke" romanticism (or Ludlow for that matter), but the things we learn in these races along with the evolving research that comes as a consequence of same could further enhance our understanding of the bigger races. Furthermore I imagine that the Triumph Hurdle thread can offer more pertinent content for the higher level juveniles. Irrespective, I am very grateful for the forum and its audience and look forward to the season ahead with relish.

My review of today's race will have to wait until tomorrow but I can post the preview for Wednesday's contest at Newton Abbot here;-

Juvenile hurdling in the UK returns to the scene of the curtain raiser, Newton Abbot, for race five of the season. Hiconic began her winning streak that day and attempts to make it four from four on Wednesday. She has barely put a hoof wrong thus far and while she may have the measure of her reopposing rivals, a couple of the newcomers could present her with her toughest assignment to date. The race distance extends to seventeen furlongs but with an average winning DI exceeding 1.40 among its juveniles, Newton Abbot is one of the easiest courses insofar as stamina is concerned.

Hiconic bf A Hales f7-0-2 (57) 57 j3-3-0 (119) 108
Sixties Icon (Acclamation){1-n}(0.60) 1/0 Hi Note 2nd 4YO Hurdle, Cheltenham 2012
Hiconic has done everything asked of her in three starts and has improved on each occasion. Despite picking up penalties and facing arguably sterner opposition on each occasion, her winning distances have done nothing but increase. She was asked to extend more than usual during her win at Stratford last time and while her official rating of 119 looks in keeping with her performances, she will be giving upwards of a stone to her rivals. It is possible she can improve further but unless one brings her rider's claim into account, her winning is contingent on either her finding further improvement or none of her rivals running to a mark of 105. She could be as vulnerable as she has been thus far over hurdles against some respectable opponents. Nevertheless, she is still proven in this discipline and under these conditions.

Balko Saint bg Mrs Jane Williams Unraced
Balko (Saint Des Saints){5-i}(0.71) 2/1 Workbench 3rd Badger Ales Trophy (131), Wincanton 2014
During the 2018/19 season, Jane Williams sent out the unraced Montestrel to win the traditionally well contested juvenile hurdle at Chepstow's October meeting at 20/1, upsetting triple graded winner Quel Destin in the process. While it might be lazy to describe the George Nympton yard of Jane and Nick Williams as basically the same thing, it would also be accurate. Since 2011/12, twenty-five horses from the yard have made their racecourse debuts in juvenile hurdles with eight of them winning during their initial campaign. This gives the yard healthy 32% winner to runner ratio although only two of those horses were able to win first time of asking. Nevertheless, this type of horse would also earn a median peak RPR of 107 which would make them very competitive in this field. Having Balko as a stallion and Saint Des Saints a damsire is about as solid as it gets for good French jumping pedigrees and the two have combined to produce the useful Dinons. Although while both are well above average when it comes to their juvenile credentials, their progeny also improve with age and their stout influence may not lend itself to a debutant at Newton Abbot. The damline contains some good jumpers from the useful Workbench (2/1) to the 1976 Grand Steeplechase de Paris winner Piomares (5/1). For all that Balko Saint is an interesting newcomer to the sport, the yard's record, the horse's pedigree and the capable animals in opposition would suggest that there may be brighter opportunities in the future.

Billy The Squid bg F O'Brien f3-0-0 (47) 34 j1-0-0 (-) 54
Requinto (American Post){19}(0.43) 2/1 Edylan 1st 5YO Conditions Hurdle, Angers 2019
Billy The Squid has good horses on the damline and his trainer is in flying form. However, both of these were true when he made a woeful hurdles debut last week at Market Rasen and while it would be difficult to not improve on his jumping, there is no reason to imagine that he can get involved in this field.

Edebez bg S Mullins f3-0-0 (53) 47 j1-0-0 (-) 90
Zebedee (Barathea){4-r}(1.67) No immediate jumps relatives, 7/5 Le Breuil
Finishing twenty-one lengths behind Hiconic at this venue last month, Edebez reopposes on twenty-one pounds better terms. Apart from a big jump at the first, he was fairly fluent throughout and while he did finish tired, that may well have been due to a long lay-off. If he is to be competitive at any course over hurdles then based on his breeding, it would probably be Newton Abbot. However, Hiconic has almost certainly improved since that encounter and there are a few other opponents here who would likely be too strong for him on this occasion.

Fiach Stoney bg M Loughnane f3-0-0 (52) 48 j1-0-0 (-) 53
Urban Poet (Excellent Art){9-c}(2.08) 2/0 Randall's Diana 1st Handicap Hurdle (88), Listowel 2008
That his granddam was a hurdles winner was the basis of his case before putting in a novicey round of jumping and finishing fifty-two lengths behind Hiconic at Stratford just over a fortnight ago.

Highlander Madrik chg David Pipe f6-1-1 (72.6) 73
Masterstroke (Redback){1-b}(0.33) 2/1 You're The Top 1st Novices' Chase, Kempton 2009
Yesterday I wrote about how horses claimed out of French races since 2011/12 do not have a particularly strong record in juvenile hurdles with only three of those sixteen taken out of claimers winning in the sphere. There are exceptions to rules however and one exists in David Pipe who can take credit for two of those winners from three claims. The form of the Dieppe claimer where he may have won but for a slight stumble towards the line has a fair look to it with the winner finishing third in a similar event and the third placed horse - who was about ten pounds behind - winning an Argentan handicap off 28.5 (roughly 62.7 in the UK/Ireland). Furthermore, while the Mikaël Seror export juveniles came through means other than claiming races, they have included Fanfan Du Seuil and Call Me Lord. Masterstroke, who this year joined Yorton Farm Stud after standing in France, is a Monsun stallion out of a half sister to Galileo. He has yet to have a UK/IRE jumps winner from his first three crops but does have a 33% winners to runners rate with his French jumpers including the useful three-year-old of 2018, Floridee. Furthermore, Redback mares have produced three winning juveniles from five and Highlander Madrik's dam, who is from the family of You're The Top and Old March, won four times over jumps including a chase at three years old. However, if there are holes in his profile, he could be another who might find Newton Abbot too sharp as his win at Compiegne came on heavy and the race he was claimed from was over fifteen furlongs on soft ground. Furthermore, while David Pipe has won with two claimed horses, both were more expensive than Highlander Madrik by over eight and twenty-two thousand euros and neither won until competing in late season handicaps.

Pink Jazz bg S Curran f10-1-1 (59) 62 j1-0-1 (-) 93
Red Jazz (Captain Marvelous){2-f}(1.67) 2/1 Band Of Blood 4th Drinmore Novices Chase, Fairyhouse 2014
Sean Curran has not sent out a winning juvenile hurdler since Prince Pippin in November 2009 and has only sent out five since 2011/12 including this one at Stratford. He is set to saddle two on Wednesday and Gavin Sheehan retains the mount on Pink Jazz. A winner on the flat for Gordon Elliott, Pink Jazz made a fair account of himself on his debut at Stratford. After pulling hard early, he would settle after getting a lead and put in a reasonable round of jumping before finishing eight and three quarter lengths behind Hiconic. With standard improvement from the debut run, he would be entitled to be competitive in this kind of company, particularly at a track which places less emphasis on stamina. However, there would be concerns with his attitude as although he is fairly honest and consistent, his resolve could be his undoing. He appeared to have any fight knocked out of him when slightly hampered at Windsor and probably failed to give best in the battle for second place at Stratford.

Talking About You bf Sean Curran 6-0-1 (60) 60
Sixties Icon (Mastercraftsman){9-h}(0.50) 3/1 Princess Caerani 2nd Mares' Maiden Hurdle, Ludlow 2014
The second half of the Sean Curran duo, Talking About You makes decent appeal on her pedigree. As well as being related to jumps winners, her sire Sixties Icon (also the sire of Hiconic) and damsire Mastercraftsman both have above average records in the discipline. Her flat form for Mick Channon has also seen some improvement to a fair level with her last being seen finishing runner up in a Windsor claimer. Although she wasn't claimed out of that race, the juveniles who have been for the £8000 advertised have only one win from twenty four starts between them. Furthermore, while Mick Channon graduates have a healthy 22% winner to runner rate, that drops to 13.6% when you remove those trained by Sheena West or sold at public aution. Talking About You may have the ability to be competitive in a weaker race over hurdles - possibly over further - but will do well to in this company. Especially as she also appears to lack a combative attitude.

Strong prospects
1. Hiconic
Reasonable prospects
2. Pink Jazz
3. Highlander Madrik
4. Balko Saint
Feasible - moderate prospects
5. Ebedez
6. Talking About You
Negligible prospects
7. Billy The Squid
8. Fiach Stoney

 

[nortonscoin200]

I didn't like the way Orchestral Rain came under pressure fully 3 1/2 furlongs out - as they began the turn into the straight.

The game was up very early.

But having just viewed the race again I suppose I was being a bit harsh as he plugged on pretty well to take fifth.

I also watched Jeff Kidder's two previous runs and thought it unlikely Orchestral Rain would get anywhere near him. Wasn't too worried about Longclaw, thought he and OR could go either way.

Wrong again!

Sorry to lose my nerve and desert you - first time I've cashed out like that - but it made watching the race extremely interesting.

Thanks again.

You come at racing from a completely different perspective to me and must admit I'm still struggling to understand dosage index and its importance. Any chance of a short numbskull's guide?

 

[Kotkijet]

I didn't like the way Orchestral Rain came under pressure fully 3 1/2 furlongs out - as they began the turn into the straight.

The game was up very early.

But having just viewed the race again I suppose I was being a bit harsh as he plugged on pretty well to take fifth.

Yeah, he did something rather similar again yesterday which I saw more a positive than a negative for future races. I will admit to largely guessing when it comes to reading races but the things that came to mind watching that were that the horse was inexperienced and was either getting the hang of going through the gears or was in need of a more searching test to be seen to better effect.

Sorry to lose my nerve and desert you - first time I've cashed out like that - but it made watching the race extremely interesting.

Don't worry about it as it something I can detach from and not take personally. People can go with or against my observations and can profit or lose accordingly. But as all of that is out of my control then rationally speaking I have no reason to emotionally react either way. The only thing I can aim to achieve is the satisfaction that my effort and observations were a sincere reflection of my ability. Anything after that is completely out of my hands. Although if somebody was to offer a healthy retainer or a leg of a horse as a gift then it would be rude of me to turn it down...

You come at racing from a completely different perspective to me and must admit I'm still struggling to understand dosage index and its importance. Any chance of a short numbskull's guide?

I try to approach horse racing from a holistic approach since as there is so little information to work from, any information has the potential to be useful. Insofar as dosage indexes are concerned, I have only recently familiarised myself with them and while they are borderline useless on their own - particularly as they carry an abundance of limitations - they can be helpful in highlighting an aspect of a pedigree or when used in conjunction with other variables.

There are plenty of places where explanations of how dosage indexes are calculated and how they can be used but I will use my own words and try to link them with this division.

In short;-

• Dosage indexes are used to give an idea of a horse's likely optimum trip.
• The lower the dosage index, the likelier it is that a horse will stay.
• The dosage index is calculated by taking into account influential stallions known as Chefs-de-Race.
• This is the latest list http://i.bloodhorse.com/pdfs/ChefdeRace Alpha List_updated Oct2019.pdf
• These stallions are put in one or a pair of groups which correlate to the type of influence they have.
• These can be Brilliant (fast) - Intermediate - Classic - Solid - Professional (stayer).
• The stallions going back four generations will count in these calculations with more weight to the closer ancestors.
• The sire gets 16 points. So if he's a brilliant chef-de-race, then 16 points goes in the brilliant column (16-0-0-0-0).
• If the sire is a mix of brilliant and classic (like Northern Dancer), 8 goes in brilliant, 8 goes in classic (8-0-8-0-0).
• The two stallions on the next line get 8 points each and so forth.
• Once all of the figures are counted, the total of the first two columns and half of the third are divided by half of the third and the last two columns
• (5-1-4-0-2) becomes (8/4) becomes 2.00
• (2-0-2-4-4) becomes (3/9) becomes 0.33

But it's all calculated on pedigreequery.com in any case. Some of them make sense. Rough Quest has a DI of 0.18 because the Chefs-de-Race on his pedigree are
1st gen = 0
2nd gen = Bustino (solid) 0-0-0-8-0
3rd gen = Crepello (professional) 0-0-0-8-4
3rd gen = Persian Gulf (classic) 0-0-4-8-4
4th gen = Donatello (professional) 0-0-4-8-6
4th gen = Bahram (classic) 0-0-6-8-6 = 3/17 = 0.18

pedigreequery.com/rough+quest

But it is also worth noting that if the stallion isn't on the chefs-de-race list then it is not included in the calculations which is how a horse like Equiano can have a DI of 0.33 and recent Market Rasen winner Soldier On Parade has one of 4.60 because neither Royal Applause or Acclamation's speed nor Dunaden's stamina were factors in deciding the dosage index.

https://www.pedigreequery.com/equiano
https://www.pedigreequery.com/soldier+on+parade

This is an obvious shortfall of dosage indexes.

Nevertheless, I have calculated the dosage indexes of every juvenile hurdler to have competed since the 2011/12 season and these were the results.

While research on pedigrees can produce what is little more than white noise on account of the low sample sizes, these figures rather categorically demonstrate that despite the limitations of dosage indexes, they are still a factor in determining the chances of a horse making a successful juvenile. They also lend credence to the notion that the ability to stay is a prerequisite in the sphere. How and when these findings can be applied to the analysis of a juvenile hurdle is broadly dependent on the specific context of the race and its variables.

I hope that helps you in getting started but failing that, these are a little more professionally written.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dosage_Index
https://www.equibase.com/products/dosage.cfm

If there are any further questions or even suggestions then I am glad to hear them.

 

[Kotkijet]

Ireland's juvenile hurdling season opened with a maiden hurdle at Roscommon, as is tradition. It featured representatives from several successful yards in the division including Gordon Elliott who saddled the winner Longclaw. It was ran at a good gallop on ground that was yielding, good in places, the likely horses finished at the front and while Calidus Mirabilis ran into the rail turning for home, it did not cost him any places and there was nothing else resembling harsh luck.

Longclaw took a rather alarming drift in the market from the 11/8 available in the morning to touching 8/1 on the track. While there were reservations to be had over his seemingly regressive form, the drift looked like an over-correction as there was nothing wrong with his performance. Apart from a mistake at the second, his jumping was decent and he was a decisive winner in the end even if the runner up received no harsher a ride than he did. In winning this, he became the first juvenile winner for his sire and the only entire to win such a race apart from Sir Erec. While his flat form this season was not as strong as last year, it was still as good as anything else seen from this field and while this performance can be seen as something as a revival, it would not represent a huge leap forward. He certainly won this race nicely enough and a mark of around 120 would be reasonable but the conditions were ideal for him here and it is not a given that he will be able to meet sterner tasks in terms of competition and conditions.

Jeff Kidder was the horse who countered Longclaws drift in the market when being backed into favouritism and it was a fair reflection of his chances. He has been improving on the flat recently for the step up in distance and this represents further improvement. He made a mistake at the third and rather misjudged the last before landing in the winners path but his jumping was fine otherwise and the incident at the last did not impact the finishing order. He was not given a hard time after it became apparent that he would not be winning here and was the more tenderly ridden of the front two between the last pair of flights. If he is to meet the winner again then the penalty could see him reverse placings - particularly if a greater test of stamina is required.

Orchestral Rain was making only his second racecourse appearance of any nature but his flat run was full of promise, he was representing a solid pedigree and a capable yard and was very much underestimated in the market. As with his Killarney run where he was a neck behind the winner, he was rather green and somewhat lacking pace at stages but other than being slightly wary approaching the third put in a decent round of jumping and has scope for further improvement. Whether he stays at the yard or moves on remains to be seen but there was plenty of encouragement for the future taken from this run and ought to be very competitive in this kind of company.

Calidus Mirabilis came in with a couple of flat wins under his belt and was representing a Joseph O'Brien yard which has a healthy but not outstanding record in this sphere for its numbers and strength. He was solid in the market and ran a respectable race but he was not the most fluent of jumpers and finished quite tired in the end. He can come on for this effort from a jumping perspective but he may struggle for stamina in the short term on this evidence.

Dazzling Darren was another who tasted success on the flat on multiple occasions and was representing a yard which does very well with its juveniles pound for pound. There were reservations about his pedigree and while his jumping was fine apart from pecking on landing at the sixth, he did weaken quite badly in the end. A recent flat spin discounts any fitness theories although this was his ninth start of the year and fifth post-lockdown and his yard has had a leaner spell than usual so it is possible he could fare better if freshened up.

Little Brother was the money horse having been backed from 14/1 in the morning into 7/2 but he was beaten in the end by almost thirty-five lengths. There were errors at the first and seventh but they were not really enough to end his chances. He did finish ahead of the runner up on a recent flat run which may explain the market support but he did not leave the impression that he was either a complete natural or something with a serious engine.

Differentiate was the second of the Gavin Cromwell runners and was the least fancied of the pair on account of being nearly a stone inferior on the flat. Nevertheless, his jumping was fine and did keep on towards the end in his own time. While there is not much to this run at face value, it was not a bad introduction and a stiffer test could see him improve ahead of some of his rivals.

Strip Light's fate was effectively sealed at the start where he made a terrible mistake at the first and was not much better at the second. He was never able to improve from midfield and would need to show more fluency before he can be considered with much enthusiasm.

A Mere Bagatelle had plenty of use made of him and jumped well enough for the most part before losing his position and making some tired mistakes. Not a run devoid of promise considering it was his first outing for nearly eleven months and may do better if held up in the future.

Belgoprince jumped off very slowly and made errors more in keeping with a horse without experience rather than one without the physical attributes. He had very little use made of him and is probably capable of much better in time.

Runcible's profile did not really entitle her to make much of an impression beforehand and she ran accordingly.

Lady Kapalua was the only unraced horse in the field and ran like it. Does not have the worst pedigree but probably needs a few more runs before her ability can be properly gauged.

 

[nortonscoin200]

Many thanks for the Dosage Index explanation Kotkijet - I'm beginning to see the light.

 

[Kotkijet]

Cartmel, which is usually a village fair with a racecourse built around it, will this Friday simply be a racecourse as it hosts the sixth juvenile hurdle of the season. Although such races at the track have been by useful types such as Burnt Imp, Vosne Romanee and most notably Countrywide Flame, the quality of the fields is usually below average. However, this year could be an exception with three newcomers carrying flat ratings exceeding 75, making it perhaps the strongest race on paper. The race also draws together three horses with jumping experience who have all won prize money without looking especially threatening. Cartmel is one of the easier tracks in the country although this is rather contradicted by the average winning DI since 2011/12 being 1.21 mean and 1.14 median. However, taking the records back to 1990 brings the mean up to a ludicrous 2.48 although this is largely due to some wild outliers. The figures can be manipulated in any given way but in general terms, the stamina required to win a juvenile, particularly on the predicted soft ground, is still relevant albeit not as pronounced as at most other venues.

Debt Of Honour bg N Mulholland f5-0-0 (52) 51 j2-0-0 (-) 84
Kyllachy (Nayef){7}(1.91) 3/1 Architrave 1st Market Rasen Juvenile Hurdle 2010
Debt Of Honour brings with him the most hurdling experience in the shape of two outings. His first outing at Newton Abbot saw him make several shapes over his hurdles, few of them conducive to negotiating them efficiently. The jumping did improve when he was next seen at Bangor which may have been due to the blinkers which he retains for this race. Neil Mulholland is a trainer worthy of respect in this discipline but his pedigree less so with Kyllachy still winless from his progeny's forty-six outings. There are also stamina concerns and even if they are mitigated by Cartmel's characteristics, there still remains the issue of his overall standard of form both on the flat and the jumps.

Fraterculus chg Oliver Greenall f3-0-1 (79) 76
Teofilo (Anabaa){5-f}(1.08) 6/7 Optimus Prime 2nd Novice Chase, Punchestown 2018
Unraced as a two year old, Fraterculus had three starts on the flat in Ireland for Jim Bolger in June. The level of form across all three outings, which came over ten furlongs, was of a broadly similar standard and would justify a rating in the seventies without quite reaching his official mark of 79. His efforts include a Leopardstown maiden where he plugged on to finish just over five lengths behind subsequent listed race runner up Numen and was not enjoying the kickback when finishing last at the Curragh last time. He has worn cheekpieces on his last two outings which have now been left off following a gelding operation. Teofilo horses have a good record in juvenile hurdles and are above average by all metrics and similar sentiments apply to Anabaa as a damsire. Oliver Greenall also has a fine record in these events and has had a couple of winners recently. There can be reservations over his predominantly American oriented flat pedigree (his third dam won the 1993 Kentucky Oaks) and his greenness, previous use of headgear, freshly gelded state and unfamiliarity with soft ground are not easy to ignore but he otherwise has a respectable profile.

Global Agreement chg Milton Harris f11-0-2 (56) 64
Mayson (Royal Applause){10-a}(2.33) 2/1 Daring Bid 1st Novices' Hurdle, Bangor 1999
With eleven starts to his name, Global Agreement is the most experienced of this and with his peak efforts being largely consistent throughout would, by that token, also be the most exposed. While he was initially rated 66, his most recent mark of 58 is more accurate and a little kinder. He is versatile in terms of ground conditions and has shaped as though he should get this trip. Mayson has only had the one juvenile this far and the Invincible Spirit can be hit and miss however Royal Applause does not have a positive bearing in this division. Milton Harris has one winner from three but that is a small sample size and he has not had a winner since coming out of lockdown.

Lairig Ghru bg Micky Hammond 3-0-2 (69) 70 Pon 6gs Mdn 26/9/19
Canford Cliffs (Diktat){21-a}(1.00) 3/1 Whitby Jet 1st Novices Hurdle, Southwell 1980
Micky Hammond runs two here and although the more experienced Jonjo O'Neill Jr takes the mount on Lairig Ghru, this will be the first instance of a partnership between the jocket and trainer and the stablemate retains his rider from last time. Lairig Ghru has yet to race in 2020 but had three runs over six furlongs last autumn and was placed on his first two outings at Pontefract and Newcastle. He came up against some reasonable sorts but the overall quality of his form could not be rated far beyond the mid sixties. The record of his sire is respectable in this division but while the trip here could be within his compass, he has a sprinter heavy damline. Furthermore, he would still have some ground to find with a few of these on form, his yard is not in the best form and he also has an absence to overcome.

Mick bg M Hammond f6-0-1 (59) 63 j1-0-0 (-) 85
Makfi (Pivotal){6-d}(1.40) 2/1 Sayar 1st Joe Mac Novice Hurdle (G3), Tipperary 2017
An inconsistent maiden on the flat, Mick made a respectable debut effort at Market Rasen where after finding himself outpaced, was able to plug on for a distant third. His jumping could have been better but he would be entitled to improve with experience in that regard. Nevertheless, like his stablemate, he is still some way behind these on form and it is not guaranteed that he will even match that effort, particularly at a track like Cartmel.

Naizagai bg Fergal O'Brien f5-0-4 (76) 78
Dark Angel (Galileo){9-b}(0.90) 3/1 Oxymeron 1st Handicap Hurdle, Lingfield 1990
Since the 2011/12 season, Fergal O'Brien has had just one win with juvenile hurdlers from forty-two attempts. However, his spell of tremendous recent form continued today at Newton Abbot with two winners, a runner up, and most importantly, his juvenile hurdler completely exceeding expectations held for him. In Naizagai, he has a juvenile with much more compelling flat form than Billy The Squid. While still a maiden after five starts for Roger Varian, he was placed on all bar one of those runs with the disappointment coming on his return after a layoff and a gelding operation. His best run came in a Newmarket novice stakes last November where he finished second among three future winners in good company. His latest run was slightly less encouraging where he lost his lead in the straight and finished third behind two who were beaten on their next outings. Nevertheless, that form would still entitle him to a mark in the mid seventies and although his wearing cheekpieces and hanging slightly are not ideal, he does not appear to be ungenuine. He was sold out of Roger Varian's yard for 40,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July sale and graduates of the Varian yard have a healthy winner to runner strike rate with half of those winners selling for less than Naizagai's price. Dark Angel's record with juveniles is no better than average although he has produced Silver Streak and Guitar Pete and Galileo has a fine record as a damsire in this division.

Peat Moss bg N Hawke f4-0-1 (50) 50
Fracas (Dalakhani){14-c}(0.71) 4/1 Direct Lady 3rd Festival Hurdle Leopardstown 1992
Peat Moss did not start any shorter than 200/1 on his first three flat starts but a better effort could be expected and was delivered on his hurdling debut at Newton Abbot. He suffered interference at a couple of jumps there and missed out a flight after which he became outpaced but his jumping was mostly acceptable. He gave the impression that a stiffer task would suit and this sentiment was reiterated on a recent flat run where he stayed on too late in a low grade Chepstow handicap over a mile and a half. Peat Moss does have a future over jumps at his own level but will come into his own under more suitable conditions.

To Fly Free bf David Pipe f6-1-1 (72.6) 79
Soldier Hollow (Canford Cliffs){19-b}{0.57) 3/1 Video Tape 2nd Grand Course de Haies d'Auteuil 1985
To Fly Free had six runs on the flat in France including finishing last of six in a listed race at Bordeaux where the front two would contest Group One contests next time. Her next two runs were not as good, her latest coming when beaten over seven lengths in a Clairefontaine claimer. She was not claimed out of that race, rather she was sold at Arqana for just €6,000. Notwithstanding, David Pipe has bought two other juveniles from the Ludovic Gadbin yard in recent years and both of them - Paricolor and last season's Fred Winter runner up Night Edition - were winners. The pedigree is also encouraging with Soldier Hollow capable of producing juveniles and the damline being inundated with classy French jumpers including Video Tape (3/1), Villez (4/3) and We Have A Dream (4/5). To Fly Free could prove an astute purchase although like others at her yard with similar profiles, she may be better with a run or two under her belt.

Strong prospects
1. Naizagai
Reasonable prospects
2. Fraterculus
3. To Fly Free
Feasible/Moderate prospects
4. Lairig Ghru
5. Mick
6. Peat Moss
7. Debt Of Honour
8. Global Agreement

 

[Kotkijet]

Hiconic made it four on the bounce at Newton Abbot yesterday in a race where there were several reasons to question the form. While there were no bad luck stories, a couple of these got very worked up, some of the jumping was poor and the first five, which contained a couple of outsiders, were covered by less than nine lengths. The field also lost some of its strength in depth when Highlander Madrik was taken out in the morning. There were no real market moves of note and the winning time was almost identical to that posted by the winner on her debut a month earlier.

Hiconic is nothing but admirable and apart from being a bit distracted at the fourth and at two out, her jumping here was as polished as ever. However, this was the hardest she had to work for a win and while the penalties obviously added to the difficulties, it was not her best performance when accounting for the fact that the third and fourth were able to finish as close as they did despite error strewn rounds. She also showed greenness and a hint of temperament when momentarily trying to run out at the paddock bend. Hiconic is still the leading juvenile seen out this season but this was around half a stone below her best. It is possible that she is not especially suited by Newton Abbot but the penalties are mounting up and she could be vulnerable when she is next seen.

Balko Saint was making his debut for the Williams yard who have a good record with unraced horses, even if they tend to improve with experience. Being a Balko gelding out of a Saint Des Saints mare, he can be considered more a prospect for the future than for sharp juvenile hurdles and that is what played out here. His jumping was very good for the first part of the race although when the tempo increased, he began to make mistakes as he found himself outpaced. Nevertheless, he still acquitted himself well in the circumstances and should have a future in the game.

Talking About You has a decent pedigree for juvenile hurdling and had been improving on the flat albeit at a modest level. However, she was giving all manner of grief at the start and look for a moment as though she would be withdrawn. She did consent to set off but took a keen hold, wandered into most of her jumps before negotiating them awkwardly. That she would still manage to plug on for third brings the form into disrepute but it also shows her potential if she can learn how to settle and jump.

Billy The Squid was woeful on his debut and his jumping was not substantially better here. He looked as though he was treading water towards the end of the back straight and that another tailed off finish was on the cards. Nevertheless, he also kept on to finish just six and a half lengths behind the winner. This represents a career best effort by a considerable margin and while the blinkers may have worked the oracle, the form can only be treated with suspicion until he can confirm that this performance was not a fluke.

Pink Jazz, the stablemate of Talking About You, was utterly drenched in sweat and was keen in the early stages. He made mistakes which were less prevalent on his debut and while he showed pace in the early stages would eventually fade into fifth. He is capable of better than this but there is no assurance that he might deliver next time out.

Edebez did not jump badly but was beaten further by the winner on this occasion than when they met at the track a month earlier. He almost certainly does not have the stamina for hurdling if he can not see out the distance at Newton Abbot.

Fiach Stoney was beaten fifty-two lengths at Stratford on his debut and put in another keen and error strewn round before pulling up here.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Strong prospects
1. Naizagai
Reasonable prospects
2. Fraterculus
3. To Fly Free
Feasible/Moderate prospects
4. Lairig Ghru
5. Mick
6. Peat Moss
7. Debt Of Honour
8. Global Agreement

Another one in the bag Kotkijet :applause::applause:

Shame Global Agreement scuppered the 1-2-3 but still an absolutely fine effort :victorious:

 

[Istabraq]

Yeah Kotkijet’s efforts are priceless, great work....

 

[Kotkijet]

Cheers lads.

It was the first race where I did not put any down as negligible prospects since as moderate as Global Agreement's prospects appeared on paper, he could not be ruled out entirely. Didn't help that the trainer made a resurgence in form soon after I posted the preview but such are the pitfalls of trying to get my preview out as soon as possible and my generally not watching flat racing unless absolutely necessary. Still, it is abundantly clear my writings are only to be used for context as a guide and should never be taken for tips because I am not a tipster :encouragement:

Today's juvenile hurdle at Cartmel looked like a potentially useful contest beforehand with three newcomers bringing ratings exceeding 75. While the runner up was not one of them, he was a well backed outsider who was obviously well schooled and the pair pulled nicely clear of the rest. With the first flight coming soon after the start and a couple of staying types attempting to force a strong pace, there was no hanging around in the early stages. Apart from some minor distractions and obstructions, there were no hard luck stories and while a couple of horses were backed, neither looked like plot horses. The ground dried to Good to Soft and the winning time was nearly five seconds quicker than the 0-120 handicap later on the card.

Naizagai was sent straight into the lead and while he faced a strong challenge early on from a pair of staying types, he was able to burn them off with his superior pace. He was certainly enthusiastic but not alarmingly keen since his jockey was able to get a breather into him before half way without any fuss. His jumping was good without being perfect as he made a few slight errors going round. Nevertheless, there was still encouragement to be found here as while he was not particularly polished going over the fourth, he still got over it very quickly without losing any momentum and was adept at correcting himself when he misjudged his approaches. He was still travelling easily of the field after the penultimate flight and was only starting to tire slightly towards the end. He probably won't want a much sterner stamina test than this on today's showing and the runner up may have finished closer had his rider not dropped the whip. Nevertheless, he appears to have a real zest for this discipline and even if one suspects that perhaps the race fell perfectly for him, it was still a highly pleasing debut. With some very attainable improvement in his jumping, he sets a very tough challenge for any juvenile this time of year.

Global Agreement was seemingly exposed coming into this race even if his official mark of 56 is fairly generous. Nevertheless, he attracted plenty of each way support in the morning and his being backed from 28/1 to as low as 8/1 hinted at his being well schooled and that transpired to be the case. He found himself struggling to keep up with the field for much of the race but made steady headway along the woodside to the point that he looked rather threatening approaching the last. It was unfortunate that his rider dropped his whip turning in to the straight and while it probably did not cost him the race, it is likely that he could have finished closer. This marked an improvement on his flat form and can be competitive in ordinary contests, particularly on stiffer tracks. Incidentally, he would make some appeal if he is presented with soft ground should he return to the flat as he is better on that ground than his official rating suggests.

To Fly Free won on the flat in France as a two year old and was allowed to compete in a listed race earlier this year but became rather disappointing and was allowed to leave the Arqana ring for just €6,000. She joined a yard which does very well with her type and looked like a sufficiently natural jumper of her hurdles. She was still travelling well with two left to jump but would begin to fade shortly afterwards. There is certainly enough there to suggest that she can be competitive in this discipline as she settles into her new surroundings.

Fraterculus came into the race with a compelling profile as his sire, damsire and trainer are more than capable at producing competitive juveniles and his flat form was as good as anything seen from this field. However, there were some concerns about his maturity and resolve and these forebodings manifested themselves this afternoon. He made a most peculiar shape over the first and was slow getting away from the second and while he was better at a few of his other jumps, his mind was not completely dedicated to the task in hand and would finish quite well beaten in the end. He has a very nice size about him, was still looking competitive woodside and it was only his first run since a gelding operation so it would be very premature to write him off at this phase. Nevertheless, he still needs to develop a better aptitude before he can be competitive at any reasonable standard.

Mick ran a fair race on his debut to finish third at Market Rasen but after attempting to race prominently here, he found himself quite easily outpaced and his jumping suffered as a result. He was inconsistent on the flat and this track will not have suited so he is capable of better than this. Notwithstanding, he has yet to look a natural and needs to improve his jumping and pacing before he can really be competitive at any track.

Peat Moss was backed in from 13/2 to 7/2 second favourite but neither his hurdles debut at Newton Abbot or recent flat run in a poor Chepstow handicap entitled him to such support under these conditions. He jumped fine for the most part but was another who tried to take on the leader and failed miserably before soon finding himself completely ran off his feet. His jumping does not give any cause for concern but he would need a longer trip in a poor race before he can be considered a particular threat over hurdles.

Lairig Ghru was having his first run since last autumn and while he showed enough pace to go second at around the half way mark, he would eventually weaken quite badly. He was slightly hesitant at the first but his jumping was otherwise fine. However, there were stamina concerns beforehand and even if this was his first run of the year, it is still going to be a concern in the near future.

Debt Of Honour was having his third run over hurdles and although there were a couple of slow jumps, he has improved massively in that department since his hurdling debut in early July. Unfortunately, this leaves little explanation for his poor level of form beyond a general lack of class and stamina. Kyllachy is not a good stallion of juvenile hurdlers so he may be better served by a return to the level.

 

[Lobos]

No need for me to try and pick the Triumph and Fred Winter winners in March......I'm just following Kot. Superb assessments and amazing results so far. Keep it up !

 

[Kotkijet]

Ireland's second juvenile hurdle of the season takes place this coming Monday at Ballinrobe and the yards of Gordon Elliott and Noel Meade, who sent out the winner and runner up in last week's curtain raiser, are represented by another pair of newcomers. The fourth, sixth and ninth are also set to make a swift return to the fray. While the decent juvenile Clarcam started his hurdling career at this venue, Ballinrobe is not renowned for being the launchpad of future stars and Monday's race probably won't take too much winning. There is not a great deal of data from which to draw dosage information but the course's characteristics and average times, it would be one of the speedier racecourses and its sharp bends and downhill finish would not lend itself to big chasing types.

A Mere Bagatelle bg John Joseph Hanlon f3-0-0 (56) 50 j1-0-0 (-) 89
Born To Sea (Fasliyev){11}(4.00) 3/1 Kerawi 1st Christmas Hurdle (G1), Kempton 1997
A Mere Bagatelle is one of four in this field with hurdles experience which he gained when beaten by forty lengths last week at Roscommon. He was 66/1 that day which on the basis of moderate flat form and a lengthy lay off seemed fair enough and the bare result also justifies the price. Nevertheless, he led for much of the way jumping well in the process and was entitled to fade given his absence. It would be peculiar to suggest that a horse whose is flattered by a flat rating of 56 comes here with a great chance but his case would not be a miserable one. Born To Sea is a good sire of juveniles, the cross with Fasliyev has created triple juvenile winner Malangen and trainer Shark Hanlon has won prize money with lower rated horses and enjoyed a double at Wexford earlier this week. There are still lingering stamina doubts but Ballinrobe is not a track which would exacerbate such fears. A Mere Bagatelle has already shown that he can jump and will strip fitter for last week's effort and while he would not have a favourite's chance, he should not be 66/1 again.

Bass Reeves bg Noel Meade f6-0-0 (49) 59
Es Que Love (Diesis){11-a}(1.00) 5/1 Old Vic leading National Hunt stallion
One of two Noel Meade newcomers, Bass Reeves is the lower rated of the two with an official rating of 49. He started off with a mark of 58 which was earned when he finished last of eight in a Leopardstown maiden last July and he followed that by finishing well beaten in a pair of Curragh nurseries in the Autumn. His seasonal reappearance came in June when beating only two of seventeen home in a Leopardstown handicap and he has not been seen since. Es Que Love has only had the one juvenile this far (a maiden from four starts) and the Clodovil line has not really been tested although Diesis has a reasonable level success as a damsire. Noel Meade is always worthy of respect in the division and has won juveniles with lesser rated hometrained horses than Bass Reeves. However, the yard is not going through its brightest spell at the moment and the lack of jumping relatives on the damline offers no respite to this one's sallow profile.

Belgoprince chg A J Martin f10-1-2 (70.4) 48 j1-0-0 (-) 79
Prince Gibraltar (Bering){9-f}(0.82) 2/1 Golden Marvel jumps winner in US
He is under the care of a tremendously experienced trainer in this sphere, brings the best flat form into the race, represents an interesting new stallion and has classy french juveniles on his Damline, yet Belgoprince's return to the track is not eagerly anticipated. Drifting from 12/1 in the morning to 25/1 at the off, Belgoprince missed the start, made little effort to join the pack and jumped as though he was having his first ever schooling session. He has the profile, attributes and build to be useful at this game but most people in the general public can only guess as to when that could be. The track may well be too sharp in any case and the yard is not currently among the winners so it might be inferred that he won't be winning on Monday. Nevertheless, if there is an avalanche of money for the horses then his prospects increase exponentially.

Blue Sky Thinker bg Ross O'Sullivan f6-0-0 (40) 44
French Navy (Giant's Causeway) {1-a}(1.60) no jumps relatives
Finishing last or thereabouts in a trio of maidens last autumn, Blue Sky Thinker picked up where he left off, finishing close to the rear in three handicaps this summer. His rating of 40 is not an unfair one and his usual hold up tactics and lack of trackcraft will not suit him here. Ross O'Sullivan can train winning juveniles but is not especially prolific. French Navy is a first season juvenile sire but he is a half brother to decent hurdler Sea Lord and the Shamardal line is not bad for this division. Nevertheless he is still unproven and it would be quite the statement if his career as a jumps sire got off to a winning start.

Calidus Mirabilis bg Joseph Patrick O'Brien f12-2-1 (68) 75 j1-0-0 (-) 108
Hot Streak (Oasis Dream){4-j}(1.50) 4/5 La Limagne 1st Prix Tanerko Handicap Hurdle, Auteuil 2018
Calidus Mirabilis brings the best jumps form into the race in the shape of his eighteen length fourth at Roscommon last week and his flat form is also near enough the best on offer in his field. He is respected almost by default for representing the Joseph O'Brien yard which while above average by class and success metrics, does not have an outstanding record given its ammunition. Calidus Mirabilis's jumping at Roscommon lacked fluency but not irredeemably so and can improve on the bare form at such a venue which does not demand a great deal of stamina. It is most unlikely that he will be a contender for any of the better races later on in the season but in a race which lacks strength in depth, he would be one of the likelier types.

Cobb And Co grg M C Grassick f12-0-3 (64) 66
Camacho (Verglas){8-h}(1.12) 2/1 Whiskey Sour 3rd/4th County Hurdle, Cheltenham 2018/19
Initially a stablemate of Calidus Mirabilis, Cobb And Co left Owning Hill after four defeats in races no longer than six furlongs. His initial rating of 75 was stiff but after five more runs for his new yard had fallen by eleven pounds by the end of the year. Cobb And Co's return came in a seventeen runner Naas handicap over a mile where he made every yard up to final furlong before finishing a three and a half length second to a horse who was not disgraced in three subsequent handicaps off ten pounds higher. While Cobb And Co looked as though he would be swallowed by the field turning for home, he did not give up his lead without a fight and had enough to keep the rest of the field, including subsequent winners, at bay. Using the same forcing tactics next time at Fairyhouse over an extra two furlongs, he was once again headed within the final furlong by an easy winner who came out of nowhere but was again able to fend off the rest. The form of that race has not worked out particularly well and he was beaten into fifth at Galway last time out when stepping back down to a mile and half a furlong. The pace he set was a strong one, it was not until late on that he was headed and the impression was that he was outpaced at the finish rather than being particularly tired. Camacho has just fourteen juvenile hurdlers to his name but they include three useful winners in Mr Adjudicator, El Beau and Cafe Con Leche and the dam is a half sister to the very talented Whiskey Sour (Ambobo also appears at 5/4). If there is to be a concern, it is that the stable has not saddled a winner for over a year and is predominantly a flat yard although it does historically have a fair strike rate with its hurdlers. The pedigree makes plenty of appeal and while overall standard of form is sound in the context of this race, the attitude he demonstrated in those races was most striking and his ability to front run could serve him very well at this venue.

Little Brother bg J A Nash f9-1-2 (57) 57 j1-0-0 (-) 87
Gale Force Ten (Thunder Gulch){5-h}(3.00) 4/1 Salamah 3rd Kennel Gate Novices' Hurdle, Ascot 1998
Little Brother finished second best of those who ran at Roscommon last week although he was thirty-five lengths behind the winner and seventeen behind Calidus Mirabilis. He was backed into second favouritism from the 16/1 available in the morning but while he finished ahead of the eventual favourite and runner up in a handicap on the flat (and worse off at the weights), he did not give the impression that he had schooled particularly well or had a newly upgraded engine. It was not a bad debut outing but there was nothing to justify the gamble or, standard improvement notwithstanding, any particular excitement about his future prospects.

Money Mike bg D Fitzgerald Unraced
French Navy (Ivan Denisovich){1-a}(2.67) 3/2 Oscar Magic 1st Novice Handicap Hurdle (122), Haydock 2013
Another son of French Navy, the unraced Money Mike is from a yard with no winning juveniles from five horses since 2011/12 and has an overall strike rate of 5% in hurdles. Ivan Denisovich's mares have not yet had competitors in juvenile hurdles but he did sire a couple of winners himself and Money Mike is distantly related to the likes of Black Jack Ketchum, Apache Jack and Fota Island (all 6/5). Overall, this is not a compelling profile for a racecourse debutant.

Perry Owens bg Noel Meade f5-0-1 (70) 74
Free Eagle (Time For A Change){9}(1.53) 2/1 Parker Ridge 1st Claiming Chase, Cagnes Sur Mer 2019
The other Noel Meade runner, Perry Owens is rated a stone and a half superior to his stablemate although one would have to go back thirteen months to see any justification for such a rating. That career highlight came last July when he was third behind an 18/1 winning debutant in a seven furlong Roscommon maiden that has produced not one subsequent winner. In his next race, he was only three lengths behind a Cormorant that would eventually improve to win a Group 3 but taken as a whole, there is very little to get excited about during his two year old campaign. Following a gelding operation, Perry Owens returned in the middle of June in a fourteen runner ten furlong Leopardstown handicap but was always towards the rear when beating just the two home. Free Eagle is another sire having his first crop over hurdles but is an interesting prospect in the sphere being a son of High Chaparral from the family of Archive Footage, Unaccompanied and Plinth so his being unproven is not yet a negative. Furthermore, Perry Owens has good jumpers on his damline including Pythagore (3/3), Special Envoy (4/3), and Zapato (2/3) so on breeding, Perry Owens has a healthy pedigree. However, while it should be reiterated that Noel Meade commands respect in this division, both the form of his yard and of this charge are currently lacking.

Thekeyisnottopanic bg C W J Farrell f3-0-0 (55) 49
Rock Of Gibraltar (Areion){16-c}(2.43) 3/1 Salden Licht 3rd Aintree Hurdle (G1), Aintree 2011
If carrying an amusing name was a key attribute in horse racing then this one would be among the favourites. However, the object is to get from one place to another quicker than the other horses which is something that Thekeyisnottopanic has struggled with thus far in his three attempts in maiden company this year. There have been good horses finishing a long way ahead of him such as Russian Emperor, Tiger Moth, Dawn Patrol and Amhran Na Bhfiann and Thekeyisnottopanic actually led the first named on his debut at Naas but his rating of 55 is harsh based on what he has produced up to this point. Rock Of Gibraltar is capable of siring juveniles and has a roughly average winners to runners rate but his overall strike rate of 6.77% and improvement rate of just 25% will not be of much use here. There are very good jumpers of German stock on the damline such as Saltas (3/1), Serienschock (3/2) and Sternrubin (4/3) but at this stage, his rivals won't have much reason to panic.

Tommy The Hat chg D Broad f8-0-0 (57) 59
Camacho (Pivotal){4-g}(2.38) .5 Blue Havana 9th Juvenile Hurdle, Market Rasen 2018
Tommy The Hat is still a maiden after eight starts and has an official rating of just 57 but he has finished within five lengths of the winner on three occasions so is not always out with the washing. None of those races have been beyond a mile but on breeding there is reason to imagine him getting the trip here. Apart from disappointing last time, he is generally consistent but he would still be a fair way behind some of these on form and others have more compelling profiles.

Voice Of Hope brg Andrew Slattery f7-0-0 (63) 72
Poet's Voice (Montjeu){14-c}(0.82) 3/1 Pack The Punch 3rd Maiden Hurdle, Wexford 2015
An unused reserve at Roscommon last week, Voice Of Hope was perhaps more entitled to run than a few of those who faced the starter that day. Voice Of Hope has Sholokhov (4/1) and Soldier Of Fortune (4/2) on his damline and sire Poet's Voice has produced handy juveniles such as Nietzsche and Cracker Factory. Unraced so far this season, he raced seven times last year although the best he managed was a fourth on his debut and his harsh looking initial mark of 74 dropped to 63 in the process. However, given the influence of damsire Montjeu, he can be expected to develop as a three year old and his trainer's few runners in this division have usually improved for the switch in code. Nevertheless, there is still an absence to overcome and his form has to be taken on trust.

Sister Eliza bf Gordon Elliott f4-0-0 (67) 61
Footstepsinthesand (Imperial Dancer){2-f}(0.82) 2/1 Holy Show 6th Maiden Hurdle, Listowel 2009
Gordon Elliott won last week's opener at Roscommon with Longclaw and Sister Eliza is set to be his second entry of the season. However, Longclaw was officially rated over a stone superior to Sister Eliza who has yet to justify her rating on bare form alone. Making her debut in late June this year, her first two outings came in mile maidens at the Curragh where she finished midfield while looking like further would suit. After disappointing on her third run at Limerick, she was an eyecatching third on her handicap debut at Galway over seven furlongs where she made up a tremendous amount of ground in the closing stages to snatch a seven and a quarter length third on the line. Paradoxically, while the official mark of 67 which she competed from at Galway exceeds the sum of what she has actually achieved, there is reason to suspect that she is better than the mark implies. Even if we are to assume that 67 is the ceiling of her capacity, Gordon Elliott has still won with eight of the twenty-nine horses who carried lower flat rating into their juvenile career. Footstepsinthesand has an above average winner to runner rate of 28% and though he does not get especially high class juveniles, that will not be an issue at this level. There is less encouragement on the damline as one has to go back 5/4 to Carilo (3rd in the 2012 Prix Camberceres) to find any useful hurdlers and there is also a concern that she could leave herself with too much to do if retaining her waiting tactics here. Nevertheless, she still warrants plenty of respect in a field lacking strength in depth.

Varna Gold chg Paul John Gilligan f11-0-3 (69) 72
Shooting To Win (Efisio){5-e}(1.67) 3/2 Najaf 2nd Spa Novices' Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2010
Varna Gold is down as a reserve but his case were he to line up would be more credible than several of these. Starting his career with Dermot McLoughlin, the first six races saw him compete exclusively at Dundalk where after qualifying for a mark of 73, he would finish within six lengths of the winner before a winter break. After interrupting his break with a midfield placing in a Naas handicap in March, he joined his new yard and ran in four handicaps over distances ranging from an extended mile to an extended mile and a half. His best showing was a rather one paced two and a half length third at Fairyhouse off 69. The form of that race has held up reasonably well but it would be the best of his efforts this year as he has become rather inconsistent. He has some useful horses on his damline such as Najaf (3/2) Decoy (3/2) and Bleu Azur (5/4) and from a sample of fourteen descendents, Efisio is an above average damsire of juvenile hurdlers by all metrics. Shooting To Win has yet to have any juvenile runners and evidence of the sireline's competence in the sphere is sparse before arriving at Fairy King. Varna Gold is not without merit in this type of field and would not be written off if lining up on Monday. He also holds a couple of these rivals on previous form but he is inconsistent and he may be too one paced at this type of track.

Strong prospects
1. Cobb And Co
Reasonable prospects
2. Sister Eliza
3. Calidus Mirabilis
Feasible prospects
4. A Mere Bagatelle
5. Voice Of Hope
6. Perry Owens
7. Varna Gold (R)
Moderate prospects
8. Little Brother
9. Tommy The Hat
Negligible prospects
10. Bass Reeves
11. Belgoprince*
12. Thekeyisnottopanic
13. Blue Sky Thinker
14. Money Mike

No need for me to try and pick the Triumph and Fred Winter winners in March......I'm just following Kot. Superb assessments and amazing results so far. Keep it up !

Much appreciated Lobos. As always, it must be stressed that I am not a tipster

 

[Kotkijet]

Just a quick reflection on the today's race - a full review will be posted tomorrow at the earliest.

I regularly stress that I am not a tipster and I think today's result was a good example of why!

In this regard, it may be inappropriate and possibly egotistical for me to issue an apology but one would still be in order. There would be little call for contrition for the act of being incorrect but I believe I was rather careless when considering Little Brother. There is little irrational about the result itself and the qualities which contributed to his success - hurdling experience, positive tactics, ability to battle - were attributed to other runners in the analysis. This is not to say that I would have given him strong prospects but his chances certainly could not have been considered moderate.

I maintain that I am not a tipster and that I have no control over whether or not people risk money based on my observations or indeed how these sentient creatures perform on the day. I am however responsible for ensuring that whatever I contribute is done to a satisfactory standard and in this instance, I did not perform my best. To this end, I apologise.

When analysing a field of such a size, oversights can occur - particularly when such an analysis is done in one sitting and posted way in advance. In order to mitigate against such events, future previews will probably be posted rather later than they are currently.

tl:dr;- whoops-a-daisy! :ambivalence:

 

[Kevloaf]

Just don't let it happen again. We've got mortgages to pay and kids to feed.




:highly_amused:

You don't need to apologise to anyone, including yourself. It's impressive that you hold yourself to such high standards, roll on the next instalment.

 

[Quevega]

Kotkijet.
You are a gentleman or lady.
And your juvenile pieces are an asset to this forum.
Please continue.

You've got one more chance :highly_amused:

 

[Kotkijet]

Perfectionism can be a double edged sword but it was very much more a chuckling "what happened there?" than a full blown hairdryer treatment in the mirror thing. I got a laugh from your comments in any case though and they appreciated so cheers lads!

Monday's apology looks a lot more dramatic than it felt at the time but I suppose tone is difficult to faithfully convey through words over the internet. It was not so much my being harsh on myself as it was an acknowledgement of incorrect form. I view mistakes and errors as opportunities to develop - itself a positive gift seldom afforded by "success". Sentiments such as "that was negative" or "those actions were negative" are unhelpful and a much better approach is "what went wrong?","did it really go wrong?", "what can be learned from this?" and "how can these lessons be applied going forward". So without further ado, let us drag the corpse from the rubble of this unmitigated disaster and flog it for a bit before firing it into the sun...

First item, the process. Given that the winner had conspicuous attributes mentioned numerous times elsewhere in the thread, let alone the very same review, had been missed completely was not a deliberate oversight but it was certainly careless. The analysis was done in one sitting without breaks and posted without a proof read. This led to lapses in concentration and an absence of quality control. This is perhaps due to an atavistic impulse to develop and project ones ideas before they are influenced or pre-empted by others. To mitigate, the following process should help - research, notes, first draft, break including an unrelated activity, final draft, submission. Furthermore, said atavistic impulse, now acknowledged, can be firmly dismissed on the basis that 1) the degree and extent of independent research warrants an indifference to any premature external influence 2) the work justifies itself and 3) the author is not in competition with any other analyst. In the unlikely event that after the first draft has been written, a facet of information has been revealed by another writer's insight then it ought to be acknowledged and celebrated in the spirit of universal collaboration.

Second item, overestimated horses. Corn On The Cob Horse - front running tactics would have been less effective in field with several prominent runners which is something to be mindful of in the future. Good ground possibly an issue in hindsight - firmer than forecast - maybe leave preview closer to race or revisit in event of altered conditions. A Mere Bagatelle - still needed considerable improvement. Maybe being too clever.

Third item, underestimated horses. Little Brother - ability to race prominently without need to lead, battling qualities, fair jumping on debut with anticipated experience should have been given their due attention beforehand. Too much was read into the missed gamble first time. Gambles are placed by human beings backing their judgement and while they can offer clues, are still fallible and can confuse matters. Too dismissive of stallion and trainer due largely to low sample sizes and below average strike rates. Both of their improvement rates were respectable beforehand. Also dismissive of Gale Force Ten as a stallion on the basis of his sire being Oasis Dream. While it is true that Oasis Dream has a poor overall strike rate as a grandsire, in terms of producing stallions who get winners, Oasis Dream is on 75% for those with ten or more sons which puts him below only Galileo, equal to Danehill Dancer and ahead of every other grandsire including the likes of Montjeu and Linamix. When taking French three-year-old results into account, these horses then surpass him but the rate increases to 80% which puts him on a par with Green Desert and Monsun and ahead of Danehill, Dansisli and Sadler's Wells. Notwithstanding, his winner to runner rates and overall strike rates are still the lowest of the fifteen qualifying grandsires. If one wanted to complicate matters further, it could be noted that Gale Force Ten's damsire Kirkwall was predominantly a national hunt stallion. However, the take-away should be that Oasis Dream stallions have a poor strike rate but that does not paint the entire picture - particularly where his less exposed stallions are concerned. Perry Owens was dismissed because his recent form was poor and his trainer's recent form was also below the usual standard. However, a horse having a sole poor run after a break is not necessarily negative - Hiconic being a prime example. Furthermore, Noel Meade is exceptional with his juvenile hurdlers and his 75% improvement rate will automatically improve to 77% once Perry Owens and Jeff Kidder return to the racecourse. The yard was still in decent enough health to send out the latter to finish second last week and is more than capable of getting good performances from lower rated flat horses.

With that out of the way, the preview for Monday's race.

The second race of the Irish season took place at Ballinrobe seven days after the curtain raiser at Roscommon. The former did not look quite as strong as the latter beforehand by virtue of the fact that there was a difference of a stone in the highest official flat ratings. This notion could be further justified by the fact that the first two here were beaten nearly eighteen and thirty-five lengths at Roscommon. Nevertheless, the strength in depth between the races was broadly level, the race itself was run at a good tempo and the winning time was the fastest of the four races on the card at the distance. The front four were also clear of a strung out field. Although given the nature of the track and numerous mistakes by many in the field, it is far from certain that the placings will hold. Notwithstanding, it otherwise has a solid look.

Little Brother was a winner on the flat but where the market is concerned, he disappointed on his hurdling debut last week after being backed into second favouritism. His jumping there was not terrible but left room for improvement and that perhaps remains the case as he did not post a foot perfect round. Nevertheless, he travelled well and close to the front, which helps at Ballinrobe, before knuckling down to draw away from the runner-up. The application of first time cheekpieces possibly helped but the drying conditions certainly did. Little Brother would be vulnerable on either softer ground or a more challenging circuit, especially to the third placed horse. Still, he has a nice attitude and his jumping can improve further so another race of this nature in these conditions would see him with a chance. 111

Calidus Mirabilis was best placed of these at Roscommon and though the winner reversed placings by over eighteen lengths, this was still an improved effort. He dived at his hurdles on a couple of occasions here but he got over those and the rest of the flights quickly and only made one real mistake three out. He helped to set a strong gallop and put in a fine effort overall although he probably won't want conditions much sterner than this. 109

Perry Owens would be the one horse to take from this race. His jumping was rather poor, particularly early on, he wandered into the penultimate flight, became unbalanced turning for home and was still a good ten lengths behind the winner at the furlong marker. Despite all of this, he was able to rally to get within two lengths of the winner. There is plenty to work on in the jumping department but if that improvement can be found then a contest such as this should be within his grasp. 109

Sister Eliza came from nowhere to finish third in a seven furlong handicap at Galway last time but was ridden more prominently here. Her jumping was decent save for a slow jump at the last but she was always close enough if good enough and does not appear to have any excuses. She can come on for this run but her prospects seem limited to this kind of level and it would be surprising if her capacity extended beyond this class. 102

Belgoprince did little in the way of racing on his hurdles debut and it was a similar story here. Though he jumped off with the rest of the field, he still kept himself to himself towards the back of the field while learning how to jump over hurdles. He made something resembling headway after the last and won the battle for fifth place while looking rather confused by the process. He is blatantly capable of much better. 100

Voice Of Hope was making his seasonal reappearance and was a bit reticent with his jumping at times before finishing rather tired. It was not brimming with promise but there was enough there to suggest that he can improve for fitness and experience, particularly on softer ground. 100

Varna Gold raced in the rear while making slow jumps but made good headway to join the leaders three from home. He shortly faded thereafter which could either be indicative of a lack of stamina or that the move took too much out of him. Not without promise but not immediately compelling either. 91

Tommy The Hat is a 57 rated eight race maiden on the flat and although his jumping was good, that was the only positive to be drawn. Other than a potential but unlikely lack of stamina for this particular task, there was no real explanation for his being well beaten beyond a general lack of class. 75

A Mere Bagatelle jumped well enough while leading on his debut at Roscommon but adopted more patient tactics here. There was some headway four out but he would fade shortly after. Perhaps more positive tactics might help in the future but he would still likely need handicaps before finding himself in the frame. 72

Corn On The Cob Horse had acquitted himself with much credit in three honourable front running defeats in flat handicaps this year but was not to repeat the dose on this occasion. Racing wide early on, Corn On The Cobb Horse found himself in a protracted battle for the lead and was lit up by the effort. While he was able to get his lead, it was a disputed one for much of the way and Corn On The Cobb Horse had enough some five furlongs from home. This was a disappointing effort and while Corn On The Cobb Horse does not have the profile of a dour stayer, he was beaten too far out for stamina to have been the key factor. Corn On The Cobb Horse was backed throughout the day but he did drift closer to the off which might be tangential to the ground conditions drying out. Another factor would almost certainly be the fact that Corn On The Cobb Horse did not enjoy fighting for the lead. In fairness to Corn On The Cob Horse, his jumping was absolutely fine and if he is not soured by the experience then he can step up markedly on this performance provided there is the likelihood of a soft lead on a suitable track. However, given that his valour is Corn On The Cob Horse's main asset, that an experience such as this might be detrimental to same could be a concern. 56

Blue Sky Thinker was rated forty on the flat after six starts which is about forty-six pounds superior to what he achieved here. Apart from a hesitant jump at the first, there was not much to complain about in that department. He was simply beaten very very far. 0

Money Mike was making his racecourse debut but apart from being distantly related to good horses, did not look particularly intriguing beforehand. He would finish hopelessly tailed off. 0

 

[Kotkijet]

Race seven of the juvenile hurdling season comes to us once again from Market Rasen and in Soldier On Parade, features the eleven length winner at the venue from nearly three weeks earlier. With six races already in the bag, the majority of the field comes into the race with hurdling experience. However, while one might assume that the proliferation of jumps form would make for a clearer assessment of the upcoming race, the principles emerge as a fairly tightly knit bunch. Prior to the curtain raiser, the average winning DI from the past fifty-three Market Rasen juvenile hurdles was 1.00 median and 1.40 mean - 1.27 when outliers were removed. Latest winner Soldier On Parade's DI of 4.60 is an inaccurate anomaly given that he is by a Melbourne Cup winner but these figures along with average course times indicate that the track is fairly standard in its stamina demands. The ground is currently good although with rain and humid weather forecast in the interim, conditions may end up rather sticky, placing more emphasis on stamina. Market Rasen juvenile hurdles have been contested in recent years by the likes of Tiger Roll, Fox Norton, Countrywide Flame and Katchit. Although it is unlikely that there is anything of that calibre lining up on Sunday, enough of the field have decent profiles and it could turn out to be a nice race for the time of year.

Soldier On Parade bg Amy Murphy f7-0-1 (65) 68 j2-1-1 (-) 107
Dunaden (Mujadil){1-u}(4.60) 2/1 Out Of Control 1st Claiming Hurdle, Auteuil 2009
Soldier On Parade's official flat mark has dropped slightly since his jumps debut but it still reads well in the context of this field and the form of his last two runs in that discipline has held up nicely. Such encouragement is extended by the fact that he is almost certainly a better hurdler based on his two runs thus far. Well backed before his debut at Bangor, he jumped and travelled well for a first outing before pulling clear with the eventual winner. Next time at Market Rasen he made all for a comfortable if not effortless success. He was a little keen early on which affected his jumping but apart from being guessy at the last, was neat and tidy at the rest of his jumps. He was entitled to win the way he did and the runner up aside, there was not a great deal finishing behind him. Nevertheless, it was still a performance which affords him respect in this field and his being a course winner representing a still in-form yard gives him few questions to answer.

Bannister bg T George f1-0-0 (-) 66 j1-0-1 (-) 94
Olympic Glory (Kendor){4-n}(1.00) .5 Ciboure 2nd Conditions Hurdle, Far Hills 2019
Bannister was green on his sole flat start last season in a mile novice stakes at Windsor where he finished fourth of thirteen. While that race has not produced many winners, the form of those around him is worthy of a rating in the low seventies. He was also green on his jumps debut at Stratford and early exertions were to the detriment of his jumping and finishing. Nevertheless, it was still a fair effort and he battled well to hold on to second place. The winner since followed up at Newton Abbot and the third was beaten the same distance in the same race. RPR deemed those to be improved efforts but while that is up for debate, it still grants credence to the form. Tom George enjoyed a double at Cartmel with his last couple of runners and in Olympic Glory, Bannister has a very interesting stallion in the division. Winning with two of his five juveniles in the UK and Ireland last season, Olympic Glory is also responsible for Blackiron who is a dual winner in France this season. If Bannister can settle better, which is plausible given the lead he might be given from Soldier On Parade, then the seven pound pull in the weights could prove favourable given an assumed improvement on his debut effort.

Dragon Man bg M Young f3-0-0 (47) 45 j2-0-0 (-) 47
Dragon Pulse (Editor's Note){23}(1.50) 2/1 Mad George winless in two hurdles starts
Dragon Man was nearly one hundred and ten lengths behind Bannister at Stratford on his hurdling debut but got to within sixty-three lengths of Soldier On Parade at Market Rasen last time. Not an atrocious jumper but does not look a natural either and is highly unlikely to make an impact in this field.

Historic Heart chg Nigel Hawke f4-0-1 (75) 70
Fracas (Giant's Causeway){14-c}(1.00) 3/1 Direct Lady 3rd Festival Hurdle, Leopardstown 1992
One of two hurdling debutants in the field, Historic Heart's half-sister is the dam of stablemate Peat Moss who was third at Newton Abbot in the first juvenile of the season. They also share the same sire and both started off with Jim Bolger. However, Historic Heart is officially rated twenty-five pounds superior. Initially rated 78, his being beaten thirteen lengths in a Doncaster handicap suggests that mark was too stiff and this notion is supported by the fact that the form in his better races has not worked out especially well. His stable does well in this sphere with a near 22% winners to runners ratio and has won juveniles with a couple of ex Jim Bolger horses in Repetitio and Level Of Intensity. Although he is probably flattered by his flat rating, he can still make a respectable debut at the course which, a few seasons ago, saw his yard represented by Tiger Roll.

Kings Creek bg A King f5-0-0 (62) 65 j1-0-0 (-) 87
Elusive Quality (Indian Ridge){1-l}(3.24) 2/1 Point Of Origin 1st Handicap Chase (86), Huntingdon 2004
Alan King's record in this type of event is outstanding. Out of every yard with fifty or more juveniles since 2011/12, only Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins have better winners to runners ratios. The stable is set to send out two this Sunday and Kings Creek has the stronger credentials. He was well backed before his debut at Stratford where he finished nearly six lengths behind Bannister. His jumping and travelling that day were fine which while encouraging in and of itself, does not leave much room for improvement. Furthermore, he is not an assured stayer and his already having had a wind operation and the potentially sticky conditions which await this Sunday may prove problematic. Not to mention that the Alan King yard has yet to have a jumps winner from its twenty-one runners since lockdown.

Navajo Eagle bg Denis Quinn f3-0-0 (50) 50
Gleneagles (Victory Gallop){4-r}(0.91) 3/3 Master Dino 1st Prix Renaud du Vivier, Auteuil 2018
Gleneagles won two group races on the flat with his first crop of two year olds last season and will on Sunday make his first engagement with the world of juvenile hurdling. Several sons of Galileo have proven themselves very useful at producing juveniles including Nathaniel, Soldier Of Fortune and Teofilo. Navajo Eagle is related to some decent jumpers such as Ulundi (3/2), Master Dino (3/3) and Palarshan (5/5) but his flat form lacks promise as he his best of three efforts still saw him beaten eighteen lengths in a Chelmsford novice stakes in July.

Party Potential bg A King f7-0-0 (49) 56 j1-0-0 (-) 81
Congrats (Half Ours){8-f}(4.45) US Family
The second of the Alan King entries and the weaker on paper. His flat rating, his jumping fluency and overall attitude are a step below those of his stablemate who himself comes into this race looking vulnerable. Party Potential’s run at this venue twenty days earlier saw him jump better than some of his rivals but he was still twenty-six lengths behind Soldier On Parade and as the potential increase in stamina demands negates the winner's penalty, there is little to suggest that he can close that gap.

To Fly Free bf David Pipe f6-1-1 (72.6) 79 j1-0-1 (-) 89
Soldier Hollow (Canford Cliffs){19-b}{0.57) 3/1 Video Tape 2nd Grand Course de Haies d'Auteuil 1985
A winner on the flat in France, To Fly Free would contest a listed race at Bordeaux in May. However, she finished last there and disappointed in her next two races before selling for €6,000 at Arqana. David Pipe has been in form recently with two wins this fortnight and has a respectable record with juvenile hurdlers. A winners to runners rate of 36.54% increases to 66.67% when looking at those imported from the flat in France although To Fly Free would be the cheapest of those with public price tags. She made her UK and hurdling debut at Cartmel last week and after jumping nicely, was still travelling approaching the penultimate flight. However, she weakened shortly afterwards and would finish a twenty-four length third. She had been with the yard for less than three weeks and her pedigree suggests that it was more a lack of fitness than a lack of stamina which saw her fade so quickly. Her amateur jockey's claim of seven pounds on top of her sex allowance of the same amount give her prospects an interesting look on bare form and weights alone before her flat rating or assumed improvement are even taken into account. The yard's juveniles can take a few runs to get going and the conditions may place further emphasis on her unproven stamina, but she is still entitled to respect in this company.

Strong prospects
1. Bannister
Reasonable prospects
2. Soldier On Parade
3. To Fly Free
Feasible prospects
4. Kings Creek
5. Historic Heart
Moderate prospects
6. Party Potential
Negligible prospects
7. Navajo Eagle
8. Dragon Man

 

[Kotkijet]

Ireland's third juvenile hurdle of the season takes place at Tipperary on Monday and it will be the first three year old hurdle hosted by the venue since 2016. Indeed, only six such races have been hosted at Limerick Junction this century which means that attempting to use dosage indexes to ascertain the stamina requirements of the race might be a forlorn task. For the record, the average DIs of the six winners are 1.92 median and 2.33 mean which would make sense given that it is a fairly sharp and flat track. However, it has also been reported that the track can get very testing when soft which given the forecast is a distinct possibility. This theory appears to be justified by the fact that when the ground is soft, pattern level races over the course and distance have been won by some dour types over the years including Solerina, Jezki, Ivan Grozny and Essex. Half of this field comes into the race with hurdling experience and those without do not bring a high level of flat form which would theoretically make this the least competitive race of the season thus far.

Bass Reeves bg Noel Meade f6-0-0 (49) 59
Es Que Love (Diesis){11-a}(1.00) 5/1 Old Vic leading National Hunt stallion
Noel Meade has an outstanding record with juvenile hurdlers and both of his forays into the division this season have finished in the frame. Bass Reeves, his representative in this race, was initially set to make his debut at Ballinrobe last week but was withdrawn after a going change. Bringing with him an official mark of 49, Bass Reeves started off with a mark of 58 which was earned when he finished last of eight in a Leopardstown maiden last July and he followed that by finishing well beaten in a pair of Curragh nurseries in the Autumn. His seasonal reappearance came in June when beating only two of seventeen home in a Leopardstown handicap and he has not been seen since. Es Que Love has only had the one juvenile this far (a maiden from four starts) and the Clodovil line has not really been tested (Gregorian has zero wins from three juveniles). Diesis has a good record as a damsire and his 40% winners to runners rate is best in this field. Noel Meade is never to be underestimated in the division and has won juveniles with lesser rated hometrained horses than Bass Reeves. Nevertheless, it is still difficult to get from the poor flat record and patchy profile.

Calidus Mirabilis bg Joseph Patrick O'Brien f12-2-1 (68) 75 j2-0-1 (-) 108
Hot Streak (Oasis Dream){4-j}(1.50) 4/5 La Limagne 1st Prix Tanerko Handicap Hurdle, Auteuil 2018
Calidus Mirabilis has been ever present in Irish juvenile hurdles this season and with a fourth and a second, brings the highest standard of hurdling form. Boasting an official rating of 68, he also sets the standard for flat form. Twice a winner on the all-weather at the start of the year, he nearly added a third when a neck runner up in a Dundalk handicap in July. After finishing an eighteen length fourth on his jumps debut at Roscommon, he stepped up on that effort in terms of both fluency and form when only losing the lead on the run in at Ballinrobe last week. To reiterate, Calidus Mirabilis easily sets the form standard and his prominent racing style can serve him well here. However, even though he finished a close fourth on soft ground in a seven furlong Down Royal nursery last August, there will be doubts over whether he can maintain his form on this going. Especially as his pedigree and overall form suggests that he might prefer less give.

Clever Currency chg Paul W Flynn f4-0-0 (45) 47
Red Jazz (Intikhab){21-a}(0.60) 2/1 First Symphony 1st Maiden Hurdle, Clonmel 2008
Clever Currency had three runs on the flat for Patrick Neville at up to seven furlongs and while he was never last or completely tailed off, his official mark of 45 seems correct. He made his debut for his new stable at Leopardstown in July but unseated after attempting to jump a roadway. Red Jazz's offspring are without a win from seventeen outings in this sphere which is identical to Intikhab's record as a damsire. The dam is a half-sister to a winning hurdler and Grade One winning juvenile Cherub (5/4) appears in the distance of the damline but there is little else to enthuse over in this profile.

Corn On The Cob Horse grg M C Grassick f12-0-3 (64) 66
Camacho (Verglas){8-h}(1.12) 2/1 Whiskey Sour 3rd/4th County Hurdle, Cheltenham 2018/19
Corn On The Cob Horse went into his hurdling debut last Monday with a compelling profile based on his reasonable flat form, solid pedigree, front running tactics and admirable battling attitude. However, he would prove to be disappointing as he was not pleased with being taken on for the lead and would give up the ghost a long way from home. With Calidus Mirabilis reopposing and potential front runner Summit Rock in the field, Corn On The Cob Horse may once again struggle to get his own way up front. However, he is more likely to enjoy the soft ground than the former and with hurdling experience under his belt, should be able to fend off the newcomer - particularly as his jumping is already decent. Corn On The Cob Horse has been abandoned by Luke Dempsey for his stablemate but while he will ridden by a claimer here, Simon Torrens has tasted success at this venue and on front runners. Furthermore, Corn On The Cob Horse ran a good second at Fairyhouse under another claimer. Anybody risking anything resembling money on Corn On The Cob Horse either deserves the Victoria Cross for bravery or should consider the implications of such a nihilistic approach to life. Nevertheless, on the balance of probability, it is still possible to justify a vastly improved effort from Corn On The Cob Horse.

Differentiate bg Gavin Cromwell f8-0-2 (55) 58 j1-0-0 (-) 88
Maxios (Kris S){2-d}(1.21) 2/2 Maxios 3/1 Exit To Nowhere
Despite improvement in the last two of his eight flat runs, Differentiate's form did not really entitle him to finish better than the thirty-seven length seventh he posted at Roscommon on his hurdles debut. Nevertheless, in this company, he is no more than a stone from the highest rated, the two in front of him in a Sligo handicap have finished first and second over hurdles (albeit both carried more weight) and there was enough at Roscommon to suggest he would make a better hurdler. His jumping was fine, and he kept on towards the end suggesting that a sterner test would enable him to step up on that performance. There is further encouragement to be taken from the fact that both his sire and in-form trainer are well above standard in this discipline. If there are reasons to dampen his prospects, they may lie in his still needing further improvement and that hold up tactics might not suit. However, if he is not ridden too far from the leaders then it is reasonable to expect a fair showing here.

Made In Pimlico chg Brendan W Duke f7-0-0 (42) 47
Dragon Pulse (Giant's Causeway){8-k}(1.25) no jumps relatives
Made In Pimlico came up against classic contenders in his first three maiden races but was beaten a long way on those occasions and failed to finish better than midfield in four nurseries off low marks. While his trainer has an above average record in these races, his sire has just a 3% strike rate and with a long absence to overcome, Made In Pimlico makes little appeal first time out.

Poets Touch bg Andrew Slattery f1-0-0 (-) 59
Poet's Voice (Candy Ride){12-b}(3.00) no jumps relatives
Poets Touch made his racecourse debut last month at Killarney where he was a sixteen length seventh behind the winner and nearly six lengths behind fellow debutant Orchestral Rain who would finish third at Roscommon. One of two representatives for Andrew Slattery, he is also by the same sire as his stablemate although on breeding, Poets Touch would be the less likely of the two to appreciate conditions. His case is not a mediocre one but the likelihood is that a few of these will prove too strong at this juncture.

Strip Light chg M Halford f3-0-0 (68) 67 j1-0-0 (-) 86
Outstrip (Dark Angel){1-p}(2.00) 3/1 Fine Lace 2nd Juvenile Hurdle, Chepstow 2010
Michael Halford's first juvenile runner for a long time had his fate sealed early on when making a bad mistake at the first on his hurdling debut at Roscommon. Although his official flat rating of 68 is one of the highest in the field, it almost certainly flatters him and he is unlikely to appreciate the softer ground on breeding. While he has shown enough to suggest he can be competitive in some capacity, he would need to demonstrate more fluent jumping before he can be given serious prospects over hurdles.

Summit Rock bg T G McCourt f8-0-0 (56) 69
Exceed And Excel (Iceman){16-a}(1.00) 2/2 Quick Jack 1st Galway Hurdle (136), Galway 2015
Taken out of his intended hurdles debut at Roscommon with a stone bruise, Summit Rock was initially handed a rating of 74 after three runs in Dundalk maidens for Dermot Weld last year. That rating was based on the sole occasion he was beaten less than four lengths and that came in a maiden that has produced only one subsequent winner. After selling at Goffs for €6,000 in February, Summit Rock has been well beaten in four handicaps and his current rating of 56 is greater than the sum of those efforts. While he is related to winners on the dam's side, including Rodolfo, Ballistic Boy and Galway Hurdle winner Quick Jack, his sire has a poor record in this sphere.

Thekeyisnottopanic bg C W J Farrell f3-0-0 (55) 49
Rock Of Gibraltar (Areion){16-c}(2.43) 3/1 Salden Licht 3rd Aintree Hurdle (G1), Aintree 2011
Thekeyisnottopanic has struggled thus far in his three attempts in maiden company this year. There have been good horses finishing a long way ahead of him such as Russian Emperor, Tiger Moth, Dawn Patrol and Amhran Na Bhfiann and Thekeyisnottopanic actually led the first named on his debut at Naas. But his rating of 55 is harsh based on what he has produced up to this point. Rock Of Gibraltar is capable of siring juveniles and has a roughly average winners to runners rate but his overall strike rate of 6.77% and improvement rate of just 25% will not be of much use here. There are very good jumpers of German stock on the damline such as Saltas (3/1), Serienschock (3/2) and Sternrubin (4/3) and his damsire has produced a winning juvenile in France but at this stage, his rivals won't have much reason to panic.

Voice Of Hope brg Andrew Slattery f7-0-0 (63) 72 j1-0-0 (-) 96
Poet's Voice (Montjeu){14-c}(0.82) 3/1 Pack The Punch 3rd Maiden Hurdle, Wexford 2015
The stablemate of Poets Touch, Voice Of Hope's hurdling debut was delayed by a week as he was only a reserve at Roscommon. As such, his first foray over jumps came at Ballinrobe last week on ground which probably did not suit. Nevertheless, the bare form was an improvement on where he had left off as a two-year-old and much closer to his better efforts on softer ground. Furthermore, in the context of this race, only Calidus Mirabilis brings better hurdling form. His jumping was not altogether fluent but he is entitled to improve for the experience and with the forecast rain and his stripping fitter, there is every reason to suspect that he can leave that effort behind.

Divine Covey grf Padraig Roche f6-0-0 (65) 67
Dark Angel (Paco Boy){2-f}(3.00) 2/1 Sign Manual 1st Handicap Hurdle (110), Catterick 2016
Running in The Queen's colours under the care of Richard Hannon, Divine Covey had earned an official rating of 68. Her final start in England came in a seven-furlong Newbury nursery where she was less than two lengths third, only half a length behind a subsequent winner while finishing ahead of three. She was offered at the Tattersalls Autumn sales and picked up for 15,000 guineas. However, she has finished tailed off on both of her outings for her new trainer this year and while he trained Grade Three winning juvenile Way Back Home, his other four since 2011/12 failed to reach the first three. Divine Covey's dam is a half-sister to a winning hurdler and Dark Angel does get juveniles including Guitar Pete, Silver Streak and recent Cartmel winner Naizagai. However, it would be preferable to see more stamina in her pedigree. Furthermore, of the twenty-two juveniles sold at public auction from the Richard Hannon yard, only two (Pete So High and Lil Rockerfeller) would win during their first season over hurdles. Divine Covey showed a good level of form last season but her recent form and general profile leaves her with many questions to answer.

Merry Poppins grf J Motherway Unraced
Authorized (Peintre Celebre){1-w}(0.68) 2/1 In On The Act 3rd Juvenile Mdn Hurdle, Plumpton 2006
Merry Poppins was set to make her debut at Roscommon but was withdrawn after being reported lame. Only Mastercraftsman (21) has sired more winning juveniles than Authorized (20) in the UK and Ireland since 2011/12 and the latter has done so with fewer runners. Peintre Celebre is also an above average damsire by class, winners to runners and improvement metrics. Merry Poppins will be only the second juvenile hurdler from the yard since 2011/12 and her damline is threadbare insofar as hurdling talent is concerned so a strong argument for her cannot be made based on decent sirelines alone.

Sweet Sixteen bf M C Grassick f7-0-1 (59) 64
Maxios (Second Empire){7-f}(0.69) 4/2 Annie Power 170 1st Champion Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2016
Stablemate of Corn On The Cob Horse, Sweet Sixteen has an appealing pedigree. Counting stallions with ten or more runners, Maxios is in the top ten in terms of winners to runners, class and overall strike rate and the damline features Annie Power (4/2), Sadlers Wings (4/2) and Aachen (4/3). Sweet Sixteen began her career with Amy Murphy but while there were hints of promise on her first three starts in novice auction company, she would be beaten a combined forty-eight lengths in a couple of backend nurseries. After fetching just €4,000 at the Goffs February sales, she finished down the field in a couple of Leopardstown handicaps - the latest coming eleven days ago. Sweet Sixteen should have no trouble getting the trip has every right to make a better hurdler on breeding. However, she was still sold cheaply and her recent form leaves her with something to find on her hurdling debut.

Strong prospects
1. Corn On The Cob Horse
2. Calidus Mirabilis
3. Voice Of Hope
Reasonable prospects
4. Differentiate
5. Bass Reeves
Feasible prospects
6. Sweet Sixteen
7. Poets Touch
Moderate prospects
8. Divine Covey
9. Strip Light
Negligible prospects
10. Summit Rock
11. Clever Currency
12. Thekeyisnottopanic
13. Merry Poppins
14. Made In Pimlico

 

[BigChaang]

In the 12-30 at market Rasen today .
I decided Soldier on parade and To fly free were .
Strong prospects and Bannister a reasonable prospect .
Very interesting to read your Take on the race Kotkijet.
Look forward to more .:encouragement:

 

[Istabraq]

I’ve had to follow the advice on Bannister here, 4.2 on fair looks OK given Kotkijets comments...