Johnny Henderson GRAND ANNUAL Challenge Cup Handicap Chase

[EnvoiAlien]

No worries, Bunk, I'd love to see Andy round Cheltenham, was devestated he didn't run as a novice hurdler, I'm expecting a Morgan Freeman esq commentary moment as he breaks free from the field.

 

[ToniC]

This race looks shit this year. Could soon be time to start requesting those Buddy rich by x amount of lengths bets

 

[Stormez]

Sky Pirate is top rated of the entries at 156, top weight gets 11-12, Andy is 152 so should get 11-08 by my reckoning.

There’d be Irish tax on top of that though, so wouldn’t be far off topweight.

 

[keithsutton86]

Ciel De Neige or Andy Dufresne here for me... Elliott or Mullins... both JP... whats not to like?

 

[Zachx02]

Ciel De Neige or Andy Dufresne here for me... Elliott or Mullins... both JP... whats not to like?

Mullins has never won a festival handicap chase

 

[YoungHustler]

I really like Before Midnight for this at 20/1 all in with Denise.

Won well over C&D in October, beat Amoola Gold at his beloved Ascot and then gave Funambule Sivola a proper race (even though went too hard) at Donny. FS is now rated 158 and won the Game Spirit, BM is off the same mark as Donny - 148.
Old course suits being on the pace, trainer said when it won at the course in October this is the target and his horses are bang in form.

He was cherry ripe and October was his main target all season. I think Sky Pirate who will be over a stone better off and have this as his season target will reverse the form.

 

[Rooster Booster]

He was cherry ripe and October was his main target all season. I think Sky Pirate who will be over a stone better off and have this as his season target will reverse the form.

I am struggling with the notion that a horses main target for an entire season would be his first run in October...particularly as his subsequent 3/rprs have been a fair bit higher than the October run and steadily climbing. Their top rprs are 7 pounds apart and BM is rated 8 pounds lower. BM rprs are steadily increasing and SPs have at best plateaued. Fair enough fancying SP but I’m struggling a little with your rationale with BM

 

[kinloch brae]

Sky Pirate did me a big favour last year, but the race couldn't have gone better for him, and even then he only just got home. Even allowing for the softer than ideal ground, does anyone really think he has improved this year?

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I am struggling with the notion that a horses main target for an entire season would be his first run in October

I think the principal here is correct but when you look at the Autumn record of trainers like NTD and Fergal it’s likely some trainers focus heavily on early season targets…

 

[YoungHustler]

I am struggling with the notion that a horses main target for an entire season would be his first run in October...particularly as his subsequent 3/rprs have been a fair bit higher than the October run and steadily climbing. Their top rprs are 7 pounds apart and BM is rated 8 pounds lower. BM rprs are steadily increasing and SPs have at best plateaued. Fair enough fancying SP but I’m struggling a little with your rationale with BM

You should take up the notion with Sam Thomas. :encouragement:

"Saturday was our Gold Cup though and was the main target I had all season for him, so I was delighted it came off. We'll plot our way through the coming months with all roads hopefully leading back to Cheltenham in March."

https://www.racingpost.com/news/fes...mart-cheltenham-winner-before-midnight/518185

The 15lbs in favour of Sky Pirate who will have been trained(imo) for this race will mean he'll be ahead of Before Midnight IMO. I make SP an excellent EW chance.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

You should take up the notion with Sam Thomas. :encouragement:

"Saturday was our Gold Cup though and was the main target I had all season for him, so I was delighted it came off. We'll plot our way through the coming months with all roads hopefully leading back to Cheltenham in March."

https://www.racingpost.com/news/fes...mart-cheltenham-winner-before-midnight/518185

The 15lbs in favour of Sky Pirate who will have been trained(imo) for this race will mean he'll be ahead of Before Midnight IMO. I make SP an excellent EW chance.

I'm actually quite keen on SP again too. His price is going to hold up well enough though given he'll be top weight, and 6 places should be available on the day, so I'll be backing him after final decs.

 

[Rooster Booster]

You should take up the notion with Sam Thomas. :encouragement:

"Saturday was our Gold Cup though and was the main target I had all season for him, so I was delighted it came off. We'll plot our way through the coming months with all roads hopefully leading back to Cheltenham in March."

https://www.racingpost.com/news/fes...mart-cheltenham-winner-before-midnight/518185

The 15lbs in favour of Sky Pirate who will have been trained(imo) for this race will mean he'll be ahead of Before Midnight IMO. I make SP an excellent EW chance.

I’d interpret that a little differently personally ....for me that’s just advertising his talents as a trainer that can set a future target and pull it off...an incredibly important message for a young trainer to get out there...and in his next breath name checking Cheltenham as long term target number two...he even uses the word plot.

The horse has clearly improved since October and in fact improved nto in November just weeks after the horses ‘gold cup’ where the prize money was a fair chunk more so that must have been his platinum cup ....and he’s been ticking along very nicely since...I understand you believe he had a fitness edge over SP that day based on the trainers quote but the subsequent runs of the two horses haven’t born that out ...the exact opposite in fact. BM is the one that improved for the run and not SP.

I accept it is possible SP has been campaigned all season to defend his crown but it is also possible he has just plateaued and others around him have improved. Not long now until we find out and I wish you luck with your bet.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Dancing On My Own 33/1 NRNB

As per my diary entry. Many seem keen on the Gordo good thing, Buddy Rich, and this one has early season form ties with that one, beating him by 2 lengths at Killarney, with Buddy Rich already having a race fitness advantage. The one issue for Dancing On My Own may be the lack of a handicap mark, as he unfortunately fell LTO, against Ciel De Neige, but that was late on in the race so I'm hoping the handicapper uses his discretion and gives him a mark for the race tomorrow.

He has a bit of back class, having close enough form ties over 2m with 2019 Supreme Novice Hurdle winner, Klassical Dream.

His penultimate run, although not a graded race, was against Blue Lord, where he was a fair bit behind. Not too dissimilar to how Embittered ran in the Irish Arkle at the DRF, who is another horse that has had a fair bit of chatter about him on the forum.

I just think 33/1 is probably underestimating him, based on the form lines we have for him, and the current market prices.

 

[Splinterboy82]

Coeur Sublime given 151, Ciel De Neige 152.

I actually hope CS goes Arkle but they will be mighty tempted here off that mark imo

 

[kinloch brae]

Coeur Sublime given 151, Ciel De Neige 152.

I actually hope CS goes Arkle but they will be mighty tempted here off that mark imo

Why? What mark did you think he was going to get? There is not one good reason to run in this race, but he will. Coeur Sublime was 20lbs better than Magic Daze over hurdles, and you could argue that he might have the best bit of chase form in the Arkle. I think they have mixed up the entries.

 

[Splinterboy82]

Why? What mark did you think he was going to get? There is not one good reason to run in this race, but he will. Coeur Sublime was 20lbs better than Magic Daze over hurdles, and you could argue that he might have the best bit of chase form in the Arkle. I think they have mixed up the entries.

A few lbs more. I’m 100% with you by the way, I agree he should go for the Arkle & feel he’ll be a right player if he does. But with the entry here & only 3lb tax I worry that will tempt them. Only thing for me though is this owner likes to go for G1s so still hope

 

[Eggs]

Dancing On My Own 33/1 NRNB

As per my diary entry. Many seem keen on the Gordo good thing, Buddy Rich, and this one has early season form ties with that one, beating him by 2 lengths at Killarney, with Buddy Rich already having a race fitness advantage. The one issue for Dancing On My Own may be the lack of a handicap mark, as he unfortunately fell LTO, against Ciel De Neige, but that was late on in the race so I'm hoping the handicapper uses his discretion and gives him a mark for the race tomorrow.

He has a bit of back class, having close enough form ties over 2m with 2019 Supreme Novice Hurdle winner, Klassical Dream.

His penultimate run, although not a graded race, was against Blue Lord, where he was a fair bit behind. Not too dissimilar to how Embittered ran in the Irish Arkle at the DRF, who is another horse that has had a fair bit of chatter about him on the forum.

I just think 33/1 is probably underestimating him, based on the form lines we have for him, and the current market prices.

….from what I can see, he gets less than Buddy Rich yet beat him off levels in October. Buddy Rich is 7-1, Dancing on My Own 33-1. Seems a decent shout.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

….from what I can see, he gets less than Buddy Rich yet beat him off levels in October. Buddy Rich is 7-1, Dancing on My Own 33-1. Seems a decent shout.

Yep, happy with that and the 33/1 remains which is handy :encouragement:

 

[Kevloaf]

Dancing On My Own 33/1 NRNB

As per my diary entry. Many seem keen on the Gordo good thing, Buddy Rich, and this one has early season form ties with that one, beating him by 2 lengths at Killarney, with Buddy Rich already having a race fitness advantage. The one issue for Dancing On My Own may be the lack of a handicap mark, as he unfortunately fell LTO, against Ciel De Neige, but that was late on in the race so I'm hoping the handicapper uses his discretion and gives him a mark for the race tomorrow.

He has a bit of back class, having close enough form ties over 2m with 2019 Supreme Novice Hurdle winner, Klassical Dream.

His penultimate run, although not a graded race, was against Blue Lord, where he was a fair bit behind. Not too dissimilar to how Embittered ran in the Irish Arkle at the DRF, who is another horse that has had a fair bit of chatter about him on the forum.

I just think 33/1 is probably underestimating him, based on the form lines we have for him, and the current market prices.

1lb less than Buddy Rich.

Looks a good bet :encouragement:

 

[JackieMoon33]

….from what I can see, he gets less than Buddy Rich yet beat him off levels in October. Buddy Rich is 7-1, Dancing on My Own 33-1. Seems a decent shout.

Certainly worth a poke at the odds disparity. My reservations would be whether Buddy Rich was trying at the time as this seems to have been a long planned plot for him. Also, is there any concern about falling LTO before Cheltenham?