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Johnny Henderson GRAND ANNUAL Challenge Cup Handicap Chase

JackieMoon33 said:
Certainly worth a poke at the odds disparity. My reservations would be whether Buddy Rich was trying at the time as this seems to have been a long planned plot for him. Also, is there any concern about falling LTO before Cheltenham?
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….just watched that last race back & it looked quite a nasty fall from Dancing on My Own, be good to know of his well being.
 
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JackieMoon33 said:
Certainly worth a poke at the odds disparity. My reservations would be whether Buddy Rich was trying at the time as this seems to have been a long planned plot for him. Also, is there any concern about falling LTO before Cheltenham?
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Wondered this myself, and interesting that DOMO was well backed whereas Buddy Rich drifted.
 
Stormez said:
Wondered this myself, and interesting that DOMO was well backed whereas Buddy Rich drifted.
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It appears to have been a very deliberate plan with Buddy Rich, culminating in a shot at this race. I’m not saying he’s going to win but it seems to have been his sole target all season. There will be others with the same plan but the fact Gordon has let him off since November only adds to the intrigue.
 
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JackieMoon33 said:
It appears to have been a very deliberate plan with Buddy Rich, culminating in a shot at this race. I’m not saying he’s going to win but it seems to have been his sole target all season. There will be others with the same plan but the fact Gordon has let him off since November only adds to the intrigue.
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And his only entry in the race too. The definition of laid out.
 
Stormez said:
And his only entry in the race too. The definition of laid out.
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It’s so well executed. I was sceptical could they do it with chosen mate and didn’t actually back him. His prep just seemed too minimal for a race like this, and they still pulled it off. Buddy Rich’s prep looks absolutely brilliant, he must have a top top chance
 
JackieMoon33 said:
I’m hoping they are just entered to keep the weight down :encouragement:
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Andy Dufrense is pretty much topweight, so would be very handy if he stayed in. Having said that though, he would be in there on merit I’d have thought despite the big weight.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
It appears to have been a very deliberate plan with Buddy Rich, culminating in a shot at this race. I’m not saying he’s going to win but it seems to have been his sole target all season. There will be others with the same plan but the fact Gordon has let him off since November only adds to the intrigue.
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They punted him heavily late on at Fairyhouse from 4/1 into 5/2 so he was definitely trying.

It wasn’t the first time he found very very little off the bridle. Davy will need to be at his absolute best and even more to get this one to win IMO.
 
….Amarillo Sky & Elexir du Nutz heading here according to Tizzard.
 
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I know he's well past his best and may not even get into the race but Bun Doran 50/1 NRNB is a little bit interesting at a big price.

Being 11 years of age he's probably not a lot to hide from the handicapper, but he's been running well enough, and is slightly better off with some and a lot better of with others at the weights that he has already run against this season, that are a fair bit shorter than him in the betting for this race.

His actual Cheltenham Festival form is OK, without quite being good enough to win a race. He was 6th of 20 in the 2017 Close Brothers Novice Chase, 2nd of 19 in the 2019 running of the Grand Annual, 3rd of 5 in the 2020 Queen Mother Champion Chase, before being disappointing last season when 13th of 19 in the Grand Annual. However, on that run last season, he was rated 150, and was in pretty poor form all season, which was unlike him.

The good thing about the poor form was it meant his rating started to drop a fair bit. He's now rated 131, 19lbs lower than when in the race last season. He was rated 160 just 2 seasons back, although that rating was probably a little bit unfair/high based on his actual form. He is due to run today, and if he wins he'll get a 5lb penalty which he would most definitely need to have any chance of getting in the race.

I'd give him an E/W shout off 136, at a big price, in a race that has thrown up the odd surprise in it's time.

I've just added him this morning @ 56.5/1 (boosted with Hills).

I've also backed him for today E/W as I think he'll be 'trying' today.
 
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ComplyOrDie said:
I know he's well past his best and may not even get into the race but Bun Doran 50/1 NRNB is a little bit interesting at a big price.

I've also backed him for today E/W as I think he'll be 'trying' today.
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Well, at least I got paid today for him, even if he doesn't turn up at the festival.

Done well to win, was badly hampered by the faller/unseat and was taken back at a key time in the race but got back into it nicely.

Hills still go 50's, PP/Betfair cut to 16's!
 
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I didn't really have any strong fancy for this, but one I keep coming back to is Red Rookie. Buddy rich was one I liked but something keeps telling me he won't have a strong finishing, I know it's always been the plan but something is niggling me thinking Buddy rich is slightly overrated. I could be wrong and its nothing to do with the price either, but everytime I see the horse run it seems it just lacks finishing its races. Plus a mark of 144 I'm just not sure if the horse is that well handicapped as we think. I might be way off, red rookie though the horse jumps well, finishing well in recent races and I'm actually slightly surprised it's on a mark or 138 which I think is perfect. At 20/1 i think is pretty huge plus the form is pretty decent since I think it should of won against witness protection who only got beat 2l by war lord who's in the mid 140s now.

Dancing on my own I did fancy this before but I think the horses jumping will let it down.
 
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Gentleman De Mee would have bolted up wouldn't he:neglected:
 
Bun Doran won't be running at the festival. Tom George.
 
Have been going through this race a few times now, I am a bit of a trends man myself and the couple I keep falling on our Before Midnight and Embittered.

Before Midnight ran really well LTO to Funambule Sivola, he has a lot of form tied in with last years winner Sky Pirate. Think there is improvement still to come over this trip, so i am liking him at moment.

Embittered is interesting he was travelling nicely in this last year and is a 1lbs lower this time around. Good ground is key to him so expect to see a much better performance than last two runs.

Other to mention, Coeur Sublime he would be of interest if he comes here and Red Rookie I have been following this year and has a great deal of improvement in him, he was in front of Amarillo Sky at Chepstow getting 2lbs and will be getting 5lbs here.
 
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