Johnny Henderson GRAND ANNUAL Challenge Cup Handicap Chase

[Deleted member 4957]

Just realised this is the only race I haven’t had a bet in so first I’ve looked at it properly and this is who I’ve landed on. Hits basically all the top trends. Was backed into 9/2 for the race last year and was cruising along when he came down. His Irish mark before the race last year was 144 and was put up to 146 for Cheltenham. They ran this horse into the ground last year and Irish mark is down to 141. Finally given him a bit of break and hopefully it’ll freshen him up a bit before running in the Irish Arkle again where he should be able to protect his mark. I imagine he’ll run again this year on a similar mark to last year, possibly a lb or 2 lighter even. Now it’s NRNB he’s an absolutely cracking bet at nearly 18/1 with the hills boost, anyone that says differently is a wonder spoofer

Thanks for this, followed you in.
Watched last years race yesterday and he did look to be swinging away, I know the race hadn't got going but the money for him was significant.
Managed to get a couple of mates to snare the 16s before it disappeared…

 

[jrjr]

Been chipping away at MAGIC SAINT for this since NRNB came in (stayed true to my promise of not dabbling in the handicaps until this concession kicked in).

Went off 9/2 fav in this race three years ago (New Course) off a rating of 149. Subsequently won the Nov 2020 Paddy Power Chase (Old Course) off 152, rising to a career high mark of 159. Been steadily dropping down the weights since.

Copied the following from the excellent 'Trainer Stats' thread by ToniC

RACE TRENDS

• 9/12 winners had 7+ prior chase starts YEP
• 9/12 had 2 or fewer prior chase wins NEARLY (3 UK wins)
• 8/12 had at least 2 prior course runs, 10/12 had at least 1 YEP
• 9/12 had previously run over fences at Cheltenham YEP
• 7/12 had run at Cheltenham already that season YEP
• 8/12 were in at least their 2nd season as chasers YEP
• Only 4/12 had won a race in their last 3 starts YEP
• 8/12 were within 2lbs of a career high chase mark NOPE (he wouldn't be winning this if he was))
• 9/12 had finished in the top 3 in at least 1 of their 3 prior starts, 7/12 had done in at least 2 of their last 3 NOPE (beaten a nk into 4th)

Dropped this week to 145, his lowest rating since the aforementioned GA in 2019. Had Tom Buckley onboard for his last two runs, if Paul Nicholls sticks to him then his 5lb claim would mean he effectively runs off 140. His three highest RPRs are all over trips 2m1f and shorter and I think PN will fancy him here rather than the Plate.

Am currently filling my boots with the 33/1 NRNB offered by Bet 365, he's a good bet and anyone that says differently is a 'wonder spoofer'.

 

[JamieSensible]

Been chipping away at MAGIC SAINT for this since NRNB came in (stayed true to my promise of not dabbling in the handicaps until this concession kicked in).

Went off 9/2 fav in this race three years ago (New Course) off a rating of 149. Subsequently won the Nov 2020 Paddy Power Chase (Old Course) off 152, rising to a career high mark of 159. Been steadily dropping down the weights since.

Copied the following from the excellent 'Trainer Stats' thread by ToniC

RACE TRENDS

• 9/12 winners had 7+ prior chase starts YEP
• 9/12 had 2 or fewer prior chase wins NEARLY (3 UK wins)
• 8/12 had at least 2 prior course runs, 10/12 had at least 1 YEP
• 9/12 had previously run over fences at Cheltenham YEP
• 7/12 had run at Cheltenham already that season YEP
• 8/12 were in at least their 2nd season as chasers YEP
• Only 4/12 had won a race in their last 3 starts YEP
• 8/12 were within 2lbs of a career high chase mark NOPE (he wouldn't be winning this if he was))
• 9/12 had finished in the top 3 in at least 1 of their 3 prior starts, 7/12 had done in at least 2 of their last 3 NOPE (beaten a nk into 4th)

Dropped this week to 145, his lowest rating since the aforementioned GA in 2019. Had Tom Buckley onboard for his last two runs, if Paul Nicholls sticks to him then his 5lb claim would mean he effectively runs off 140. His three highest RPRs are all over trips 2m1f and shorter and I think PN will fancy him here rather than the Plate.

Am currently filling my boots with the 33/1 NRNB offered by Bet 365, he's a good bet and anyone that says differently is a 'wonder spoofer'.

Does it not bother you that his last 2 runs have been over 2m4f?

Just reviewed and seen he has regularly mixed the trips, although seems to be going better over 2m4f. Potential Paddy Power Plate?

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Absolutely cannot get my head around this race as an antepost proposition and have done nothing. But I might add Saint Sam. He probably won’t run but at 20/1 NRNB, that has to be value. He’d be half the price if he turns up wouldn’t he?

 

[Kevloaf]

Absolutely cannot get my head around this race as an antepost proposition and have done nothing. But I might add Saint Sam. He probably won’t run but at 20/1 NRNB, that has to be value. He’d be half the price if he turns up wouldn’t he?

The problem you'd have is that he'd be unlikely to have anything at all up his sleeve in terms of handicap mark... he'll be running on merit this weekend, so wherever he finishes is probably as good as he is.

If that's too good, no problem, you'd get your money back.... and too bad he may not travel.

Just in the middle though, will he be 'well handicapped' enough?

Still, wouldn't go off 20/1 for Willie despite all that, so no real harm IMO.

 

[jrjr]

Does it not bother you that his last 2 runs have been over 2m4f?

Nope, what it does do is make me hope PN realises he won't win over 2m4f in March. I think he'll run him (what a waste of all that HQ experience if not) and he'll drop back to the shorter trip.

I'd hope PN has had this in mind for a while and has used the last two races to drop the mark down to a nicer level.

 

[Kevloaf]

Been chipping away at MAGIC SAINT for this since NRNB came in (stayed true to my promise of not dabbling in the handicaps until this concession kicked in).

Went off 9/2 fav in this race three years ago (New Course) off a rating of 149. Subsequently won the Nov 2020 Paddy Power Chase (Old Course) off 152, rising to a career high mark of 159. Been steadily dropping down the weights since.

Copied the following from the excellent 'Trainer Stats' thread by ToniC

RACE TRENDS

• 9/12 winners had 7+ prior chase starts YEP
• 9/12 had 2 or fewer prior chase wins NEARLY (3 UK wins)
• 8/12 had at least 2 prior course runs, 10/12 had at least 1 YEP
• 9/12 had previously run over fences at Cheltenham YEP
• 7/12 had run at Cheltenham already that season YEP
• 8/12 were in at least their 2nd season as chasers YEP
• Only 4/12 had won a race in their last 3 starts YEP
• 8/12 were within 2lbs of a career high chase mark NOPE (he wouldn't be winning this if he was))
• 9/12 had finished in the top 3 in at least 1 of their 3 prior starts, 7/12 had done in at least 2 of their last 3 NOPE (beaten a nk into 4th)

Dropped this week to 145, his lowest rating since the aforementioned GA in 2019. Had Tom Buckley onboard for his last two runs, if Paul Nicholls sticks to him then his 5lb claim would mean he effectively runs off 140. His three highest RPRs are all over trips 2m1f and shorter and I think PN will fancy him here rather than the Plate.

Am currently filling my boots with the 33/1 NRNB offered by Bet 365, he's a good bet and anyone that says differently is a 'wonder spoofer'.

Just a query on the jockey line..... if he's used the claimer the last two times, he's not going to be effectively running off 140, as he'd have been handicapped with the same jockey on the last twice?

Technically he'd run off 140, but that isn't 5lb well in? His last 2 runs would have factored that in already?

Does that make sense :highly_amused: I might be wrong!

 

[Middle_Of_March]

The problem you'd have is that he'd be unlikely to have anything at all up his sleeve in terms of handicap mark... he'll be running on merit this weekend, so wherever he finishes is probably as good as he is.

If that's too good, no problem, you'd get your money back.... and too bad he may not travel.

Just in the middle though, will he be 'well handicapped' enough?

Still, wouldn't go off 20/1 for Willie despite all that, so no real harm IMO.

Yeah he’s never going to be a 20/1 shot but as you say, he also isn’t going to be well handicapped either. And how often does running to your mark win you a festival handicap? I’ll keep looking and hoping something turns up but this genuinely could be the first Festival race I didn’t have an antepost bet in in about 5 years. I just don’t fancy anything. I found myself looking at bloody Magic Saint this morning to really hammer home the point :glee: Thats nothing against the horse but he seems to be in the market for this every year. It just looks a strange betting market to me with literally nothing interesting me even close to a bet.

 

[Kevloaf]

Good case for Embittered on the page before this... still 16s NRNB

 

[Spectre]

Embittered is a horse I like too. He's been running like he's lost a leg all season, but I suspect they want retribution for last season, when I'm sure they felt they had the winner last March, and it's been all about mark management since then. JOB isn't shy about playing the game. Given the current Gigi MO he'd have been off to the sales already if we were seeing his true ability.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Good case for Embittered on the page before this... still 16s NRNB

Ran off 146 in last years renewal and been keeping good company this term.
Irish handicapper has him 141, I doubt the UK will let him run here off that mark given the market confidence and how well he was travelling last year, I'll guess he gets 144 assuming he doesn't do anything stupid this weekend.
I've played that 16/1 NRNB, the case is a compelling one, he's a horse I could keep pressing...

 

[nortonscoin200]

Ran off 146 in last years renewal and been keeping good company this term.
Irish handicapper has him 141, I doubt the UK will let him run here off that mark given the market confidence and how well he was travelling last year, I'll guess he gets 144 assuming he doesn't do anything stupid this weekend.
I've played that 16/1 NRNB, the case is a compelling one, he's a horse I could keep pressing...

I just don't see it at all Ista - I very much wanted to but I can't!

I've just rewatched last year's race again a couple of times and imho he wasn't travelling well when he came down.

Please don't think I'm having a dig at you here because I'm not, honest. That's the story I've been hearing for months - Embittered came down a long way out but he was going so well at the time and they want redemption after a season massaging his mark.

But after watching the replay I can't see how anyone can remotely claim he was travelling like a winner.

Rachel struggled to get a decent position with him throughout the race and still hadn't achieved it when he blundered and fell. She wanted to be a bit closer to the pace.

Embittered's action looked scratchy and his jumping was adequate at best but I wouldn't be confident he'd get round next time in a fast run big field Grand Annual.

I think he was out of his comfort zone throughout the race and fell because everything was happening too quickly for him.

It was a long way from home and who knows what would have happened but I really can't imagine Embittered was still trading as favourite on the machine when he fell.

I've backed Thedevilscoachman who has been entered in a beginners chase at Thurles next week to get a mark.

That seems like a sound plan and I reckon they'll come here but you can probably pick as many holes in him as I've just done with Embittered!!!

Dodgy jumper, lack of experience and never raced at Cheltenham to name just three.

Entoucas possibly would have won last year but for a blunder two out and he's young enough and on a workable enough mark to win this year - but hasn't run all season so assume there's a problem.

Sky Pirate's got to overcome a 60-year stat to win two in a row but I reckon he still had a bit up his sleeve last time. He's only gone up 5lbs and provided he doesn't ruin his mark this weekend I don't think he'll be far away.

Once again, apologies for being Embittered about Embittered. Just my opinion which is worth diddly-squat, according to my wife:excitement:

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I've backed Embittered myself for this, but do agree he wasn't travelling that well last year. I think the fact he went off fav makes us feel more positive about his chances this year when it may not actually be relevant!

 

[Quevega]

Ran off 146 in last years renewal and been keeping good company this term.
Irish handicapper has him 141, I doubt the UK will let him run here off that mark given the market confidence and how well he was travelling last year, I'll guess he gets 144 assuming he doesn't do anything stupid this weekend.
I've played that 16/1 NRNB, the case is a compelling one, he's a horse I could keep pressing...

He was entered at Sandown in December and given same mark 146.
So will depend on his run at the weekend if he gets a couple more on or off.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

He was entered at Sandown in December and given same mark 146.
So will depend on his run at the weekend if he gets a couple more on or off.

OK thanks Q, hadn’t realised that.
Fully expect him to be a mile off Saturday, whether the UK capper relents though is another thing.
Worst case scenario is he runs off the same mark this year you would think….

 

[isitmarchyet]

For anyone else on Buddy Rich for this race, was just listening to the Champ.ie interview with Gordon and he specifically mentions this race for him.

46:12 for the Buddy Rich comments.

 

[ToniC]

For anyone else on Buddy Rich for this race, was just listening to the Champ.ie interview with Gordon and he specifically mentions this race for him.

46:12 for the Buddy Rich comments.

Wins dking cartwheels. His profile for the race is ridiculous. Glad to see him namechedkee after skipping the DRF race, was worried something was up. Could go off as short as chosen mate and I wouldn’t be surprised.

 

[Mr X]

Coeur Sublime 148 fom the Irish handicapper. British tax ? maybe 3 or 4 at 151/152 would be tempting to come here?

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I just don't see it at all Ista - I very much wanted to but I can't!

I've just rewatched last year's race again a couple of times and imho he wasn't travelling well when he came down.

Please don't think I'm having a dig at you here because I'm not, honest. That's the story I've been hearing for months - Embittered came down a long way out but he was going so well at the time and they want redemption after a season massaging his mark.
:

Sorry only just seen this.

It's a discussion NC, never a personal war so never will there be any offence taken, always good to see/hear a differing opinion.

The race (last year) hadn't really started to unfold when he came down and it's impossible to know how close he might have gone, I'm of the view he was travelling well enough and for some reason the horse just put down on him.
I can't recall what price he was leading up to the race but 9/2f suggests there was plenty of confidence in him, assuming he does nothing stupid this weekend he won't be rated any higher this year for the Grand Annual so has to go there with a similar chance, that's not to say there isn't something else in the race that is better handicapped.
A good case was made for Buddy Rich earlier, who I have covered.

And I would just add, embarrassingly, that having tried every year since 1989 I am still yet to have the winner of this race...

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Gentleman de Mee will be another interesting one in this. He was actually sent off a shorter price than Galopin de Champs in the Martin Pipe last year and was a real talking horse before the Festival. Has kept the highest company in novice chases so far and its a race JP has done particularly well in. Needs one more run for a mark but would be surprised if this wasn't his target.