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Johnny Henderson GRAND ANNUAL Challenge Cup Handicap Chase

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Ray said:
Looks like sky pirate is being aimed at this again! Winning off 152 last year hes now 157 and just lost by quite a way, id imagine he wont be dropped too much but with a claimer on the day he could be one to get on side
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I liked the run aswell Ray, hopefully drops a pound or two,which is possible with uk handicapper.Made him my first bet for this.
 
Brave Seasca up from 137 to 145.
Seems more than fair after an easy 7 length win at Warwick from Sky Pirate, presumably why there's a fair bit of blue on Oddschecker this morning.....
 
sky pirate seems to be left unchanged on 157, Entry in Dublin chase on the 6 Feb, doubt he'll turn up there.
 
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Coeur Sublime visually impressive but what mark we reckon he'll be given for his 3 Irish runs? Henry won this race with Chosen Mate before going on to the Grand Annual but CM ran off 147 at the Festival - would assume Sublime will be higher than that (especially with GB handicapper taking a sterner approach)...
 
RoadToCheltenham said:
Coeur Sublime visually impressive but what mark we reckon he'll be given for his 3 Irish runs? Henry won this race with Chosen Mate before going on to the Grand Annual but CM ran off 147 at the Festival - would assume Sublime will be higher than that (especially with GB handicapper taking a sterner approach)...
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150 hurdler I think and with Ferny form the UK won’t be lenient sadly as you say.
 
RoadToCheltenham said:
Coeur Sublime visually impressive but what mark we reckon he'll be given for his 3 Irish runs? Henry won this race with Chosen Mate before going on to the Grand Annual but CM ran off 147 at the Festival - would assume Sublime will be higher than that (especially with GB handicapper taking a sterner approach)...
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Chosen Mate was Gordon.
 
CS would be my pick for this with any mark in the 140's. But as others have said, hard to see that happening.
 
Being a fan of Funamble Sivola and Before Midnight for this, it's going to be strange seeing them run against each other tomorrow, and not sure one winning will help its mark that much!! However Funambule back at 2m for the first time since chasing Shishkin at Aintree will be interesting to watch, hope he doesn't blow his mark for this!
 
His price has stopped me getting stuck in for a little bit, but the boost-able, NRNB 16/1 from hills seems fair for Buddy rich here. His profile is very very good for the race on trends and will be even better if he takes up his DRF engagement. Like chosen mate but even better executed.

from my trainer/race trends diary, re grand annual winners:
  • 9/12 winners had 7+ prior chase starts - BR is currently in 6, and will get to 7 if he runs at the DRF
  • 9/12 had 2 or fewer prior chase wins - 1 win for BR
  • 8/12 had at least 2 prior course runs, 10/12 had at least 1 - Yep
  • 9/12 had previously run over fences at Cheltenham - Yep
  • 7/12 had run at Cheltenham already that season - Yep
  • 8/12 were in at least their 2nd season as chasers - no
  • Only 4/12 had won a race in their last 3 starts - would not be in keeping with majority of winners here
  • 8/12 were within 2lbs of a career high chase mark - Will certainly meet this one
  • 9/12 had finished in the top 3 in at least 1 of their 3 prior starts, 7/12 had done in at least 2 of their last 3 - Will meet this one
seems like a good enough profile to me, for the best performing trainer in festival handicaps to be aiming at one. Only slight worry, would be that there was an 8lb disparity between his Irish mark & his GB mark when he ran earlier in the year, which is high for a chaser, and he’s won since too. But on the balance I think he’d be in with a very good shout if he lined up and could be single figures on the day.
 
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Ray said:
Anyone think embittered will go for this again, i see hes entered in the irish arkle again he was well backed for this last year aswell hes 141 rated now which is a nice mark for this one
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Just realised this is the only race I haven’t had a bet in so first I’ve looked at it properly and this is who I’ve landed on. Hits basically all the top trends. Was backed into 9/2 for the race last year and was cruising along when he came down. His Irish mark before the race last year was 144 and was put up to 146 for Cheltenham. They ran this horse into the ground last year and Irish mark is down to 141. Finally given him a bit of break and hopefully it’ll freshen him up a bit before running in the Irish Arkle again where he should be able to protect his mark. I imagine he’ll run again this year on a similar mark to last year, possibly a lb or 2 lighter even. Now it’s NRNB he’s an absolutely cracking bet at nearly 18/1 with the hills boost, anyone that says differently is a wonder spoofer
 
Studfarm254 said:
Just realised this is the only race I haven’t had a bet in so first I’ve looked at it properly and this is who I’ve landed on. Hits basically all the top trends. Was backed into 9/2 for the race last year and was cruising along when he came down. His Irish mark before the race last year was 144 and was put up to 146 for Cheltenham. They ran this horse into the ground last year and Irish mark is down to 141. Finally given him a bit of break and hopefully it’ll freshen him up a bit before running in the Irish Arkle again where he should be able to protect his mark. I imagine he’ll run again this year on a similar mark to last year, possibly a lb or 2 lighter even. Now it’s NRNB he’s an absolutely cracking bet at nearly 18/1 with the hills boost, anyone that says differently is a wonder spoofer
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Being tapping into him for a few weeks now after highlighting him on the handicap thread cracking bet, was going very nicely last year, cant say how he would have been but imo would have gone close, also had him also in a couple of doubles with eclair de beaufeu for the county, which also looks like a cracker. Am hoping eclair de beaufeu doesnt rock up here though...
 
charlie said:
Added Thedevilscoachman @ 20/1 NRNB.
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Was looking at this race yesterday & landed on this fella & Gentleman De Mee.

Think he’ll be my first play in it, chased a couple of potential top notchers home this season, and some of his hurdles form from last year is starting to stack up nicely.

Would just like to see him brush up his jumping, been pretty scratchy so far.
 
Stormez said:
Was looking at this race yesterday & landed on this fella & Gentleman De Mee.

Think he’ll be my first play in it, chased a couple of potential top notchers home this season, and some of his hurdles form from last year is starting to stack up nicely.

Would just like to see him brush up his jumping, been pretty scratchy so far.
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Aye, and I liked how he finished LTO despite taking half the 2nd last home with him.
 
Im in the fan club too and he was my first bet for the race. Thought he was given quite a tender ride behind FH and CS first time up and that looks good form. Hopefully be better off at the weights with CS in this race.... Although he's certainly not going to be one the handicapper misses for these connections.
 
Funambule Sivola up 2lbs to 154 for his win at the weekend...

All roads lead to the Grand Annual now?
 
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RoadToCheltenham said:
Funambule Sivola up 2lbs to 154 for his win at the weekend...

All roads lead to the Grand Annual now?
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I really hope so and think he's got a brilliant chance. Just as a coincidence he's on the same mark now that Ibleo was for the race last season for the same connections, finishing third, from third top weight. Before Midnight went up 1 and is now 148 and I'd be on side with both of these now for the race but Funambule Sivola being my #1.
 
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