JLT Novices 2018

[Folski]

Most likely jlt you'd probably be looking at making all on invitation only, he travells well on the bridle and gets in a nice jumping rythym that can get the others behind at it and force a mistake out of them, there won't be any time to take a breather. The 4th last is always the fence I look out for, it seems to be a real test at the business end.
If they switched with alboum photo he'd be dropped in for a chance of gear

You'd imagine this is what WC will be doing.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Just my reading of the markets tbh jono... based purely on opinion and not seen any concrete news.

Do you not think WC will make all though scooby? The two of them could cut each others throats. Id be happy for IO to sit behind him and get a nice lead all the way around myself.

Gutted to have a 33/1 bet on IO for the RSA I cant cash out and only 12/1 JLT. One of the more annoying ones for me.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

This is entirely my pocket talking, but I think Invitation Only should go RSA and Al Boum JLT. Al boum started off this season winning over 2m 1, whereas Invitation Only started over 2m4. Invitation Only also has a decent point win over 3m to his name, and to my eye Al Boum Photo isn't a stayer that will get 3m up the Cheltenham hill

Having just re-watched some of the races they have both competed in so far this season I can definitely see this happening tbh!

Obviously, as has been said, what we watched in the Flogas would suggest otherwise, but I just think IO would be best going off in front in the RSA and staying on strongly like he does at the end of his races where he has been able to lead, I do think he'd be outpaced in the JLT, unlike ABP whose turn of foot is better than IO's.

I know it's over a different discipline, but the 2 met over hurdles, both off the back of a break and over 2m 4f and IO just couldn't go with them that day, and typically 'kept on one pace' where as ABP won that race pretty cosily.

Given that they have now met twice, once over hurdles and once over fences and both times ABP has finished ahead of IO, maybe in reality ABP is the better horse OR maybe it's that IO hasn't been given his optimum distance...YET! I notice ABP has one run over 3m, at Punchestown last season and was soundly beaten, yet IO, being from the PTP sphere, as had already been pointed out, has yet to go over 3m, make of it what you will but I can see IO going RSA and ABP coming here!

 

[Scooby91]

You'd imagine this is what WC will be doing.

He can try. But I'd see IO taking it up from him before 4 out. I don't think WC jumps a fence well enough at pace

 

[Scooby91]

Just my reading of the markets tbh jono... based purely on opinion and not seen any concrete news.

Do you not think WC will make all though scooby? The two of them could cut each others throats. Id be happy for IO to sit behind him and get a nice lead all the way around myself.

Gutted to have a 33/1 bet on IO for the RSA I cant cash out and only 12/1 JLT. One of the more annoying ones for me.

Invitation only dosent have to lead from flag fall but if someone else wants to go on, I think he'd take it up a fair way out. Use his jumping at pace

 

[Robbante]

Has anything come out in the last day or two suggesting this CCM? Or from the exchanges?

Funnily enough it's probably the last non handicap bet that i'm looking at adding, otherwise i'm done until the handicaps entries come out next week.

I currently have the following backed in the race:

Willoughby Court 16/1 EW
Finian's Oscar 10/1 (free bet)
Death Duty 16/1 (gone)
Al Boum Photo 16/1
*Monalee 8/1 any race*

The market is still taken up by a large amount of soon to be non runners. Having thought AbP would be the Mullins runner here earlier on in the season (and IO going RSA), that looks like it may change and swap. The Flogas run imo* would lead to that way plus Mullin's quotes after the race suggested such with him staying Invitation Only "might have possibly been outstayed a touch" and AbP "stayed on and he'll have no problem going up in trip"

Obviously that can't be taken as gospel and I imagine those 2 horses will have their target up in the air until the weekend before but if that's the case, the 10/1 on Invitation Only will be a good bet when A. the market forms without the likes of Footpad, Al Boum Photo, Terrefort, Monalee, Yanworth, Petit Mouchoir, Shattered Love and then B. when Ruby is the likely jockey you'll be looking at around 7/2 - 4/1 on the day? Less so if Monalee were to win the RSA the day before.

Anyone else have thoughts on where IO will go?

*interesting to hear Rob your thoughts on the pair. Before the Flogas I would have agreed but that run suggested otherwise?

If you watch the flogas then inmmediately your reaction would be that al boum is the stayer and Invitation only not so, but look a little deeper and i don't take that view. Al Boum Photo finished ahead of Invitation Only in the Flogas, coming off the back off a pretty nasty fall the time before and despite making a novicey error at the last. Were the two to meet again over that trip then i would have Al boum photo winning it probably more convincingly. It looked like Invitation Only was outstayed a touch and that Al boum photo stayed on, but to me that's simply because al boum photo is a better horse at the distance. I'm in a similar situation to you in the JLT and i'm torn whether to add Invitation Only if this is the way he goes. I wouldn't have him as my number 1 choice in either the JLT or RSA but at least in the RSA you could hope the trip might bring out some improvement. I think Al boum has proven over the last season or two that he's a better horse than Invitation Only over the 2m4/2m5 trip - surely you would run your best 2m4/2m5 option in the JLT? Especially when there's every chance that your other option at the intermediate trip might improve for the step up in distance

 

[Scooby91]

If you watch the flogas then inmmediately your reaction would be that al boum is the stayer and Invitation only not so, but look a little deeper and i don't take that view. Al Boum Photo finished ahead of Invitation Only in the Flogas, coming off the back off a pretty nasty fall the time before and despite making a novicey error at the last. Were the two to meet again over that trip then i would have Al boum photo winning it probably more convincingly. It looked like Invitation Only was outstayed a touch and that Al boum photo stayed on, but to me that's simply because al boum photo is a better horse at the distance. I'm in a similar situation to you in the JLT and i'm torn whether to add Invitation Only if this is the way he goes. I wouldn't have him as my number 1 choice in either the JLT or RSA but at least in the RSA you could hope the trip might bring out some improvement. I think Al boum has proven over the last season or two that he's a better horse than Invitation Only over the 2m4/2m5 trip - surely you would run your best 2m4/2m5 option in the JLT? Especially when there's every chance that your other option at the intermediate trip might improve for the step up in distance

We will see. I fancy them either way round. The exchanges very much say IO jlt

I still think
Yanworth rsa
Invitation only
Monalee
Dounikos
Al boum photo.

Win the jlt and rsa between them. I dont mind what way round. Would be a different ride but same result for me.

 

[Robbante]

We will see. I fancy them either way round. The exchanges very much say IO jlt

I still think
Yanworth rsa
Invitation only
Monalee
Dounikos
Al boum photo.

Win the jlt and rsa between them. I dont mind what way round. Would be a different ride but same result for me.

I agree that the RSA winner will likely come from that list, the JLT i'm not so sure. I really would give more than a squeak to Finian's Oscar in the JLT. If he is at the top of his form (hopefully the little wind op and more over the rest will do him good) then he would have to go close. Over hurdles in Ireland last year he finished 7 lengths ahead of Death Duty at that trip... that's proven to be pretty good form this year. I know his jumping has looked awful but he should still have the scope to improve, and his engine might get him out of trouble anyway. If he does go close it will be in spite of tizzard not because of him

 

[Scooby91]

I agree that the RSA winner will likely come from that list, the JLT i'm not so sure. I really would give more than a squeak to Finian's Oscar in the JLT. If he is at the top of his form (hopefully the little wind op and more over the rest will do him good) then he would have to go close. Over hurdles in Ireland last year he finished 7 lengths ahead of Death Duty at that trip... that's proven to be pretty good form this year. I know his jumping has looked awful but he should still have the scope to improve, and his engine might get him out of trouble anyway. If he does go close it will be in spite of tizzard not because of him

His jumping going to be under pressure the likes he's never seen before here, he literally needs to be thrown at a couple early down the back to keep tabbs. Due to his bad prep. Theres no use in letting him do it all at his own time. You have to make his mind up for him and he can finish very well.
But could well be tailed off by then.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I agree that the RSA winner will likely come from that list, the JLT i'm not so sure. I really would give more than a squeak to Finian's Oscar in the JLT. If he is at the top of his form (hopefully the little wind op and more over the rest will do him good) then he would have to go close. Over hurdles in Ireland last year he finished 7 lengths ahead of Death Duty at that trip... that's proven to be pretty good form this year. I know his jumping has looked awful but he should still have the scope to improve, and his engine might get him out of trouble anyway. If he does go close it will be in spite of tizzard not because of him

I'd be happy with a place, given I had all but written a lot of bets off with him in it, anything now would be a bonus!

 

[ComplyOrDie]

The exchanges very much say IO jlt

Scooby, do you generally take note of the current prices on the exchanges or the money for a particular horse in a particular race?

The reason I ask is that IO has had more money traded on it than ABP has for the RSA and ABP has had more money traded on it in the JLT than it has in the RSA, yet the prices would tell another story.

 

[Robbante]

His jumping going to be under pressure the likes he's never seen before here, he literally needs to be thrown at a couple early down the back to keep tabbs. Theres no use in letting him do it all at his own time. You have to make his mind up for him and he can finish very well.
But could well be tailed off by then.

That horror show at Sandown lives long in the memory. I still think that was too bad to be true... he had every right to be a little outpaced but not to the extent he was. I couldn't discount him but you're right you'll probably know your fate halfway through the race, if he's jumping ok not too far off the pace then he'd have a chance. I like Benatar and he's probably got him covered. Also like the fact it will be his first run back after a little wind op... would far rather it be their first run back than second

 

[Scooby91]

Scooby, do you generally take note of the current prices on the exchanges or the money for a particular horse in a particular race?

The reason I ask is that IO has had more money traded on it than ABP has for the RSA and ABP has had more money traded on it in the JLT than it has in the RSA, yet the prices would tell another story.

I take note of CURRENT price and ammount behind it. The total ammount are from a long way back.

 

[Scooby91]

That horror show at Sandown lives long in the memory. I still think that was too bad to be true... he had every right to be a little outpaced but not to the extent he was. I couldn't discount him but you're right you'll probably know your fate halfway through the race, if he's jumping ok not too far off the pace then he'd have a chance. I like Benatar and he's probably got him covered. Also like the fact it will be his first run back after a little wind op... would far rather it be their first run back than second

Prime example yanworth . They backed off employed Mr breisner whos an expert in the field of jumping and barry effectively schooled him on track behind WC. Improved learned to pop a fence, Left him plenty of time Mr breisner is still employed.

Look at tizzards thinking ...

 

[Robbante]

Prime example yanworth . They backed off employed Mr breisner whos an expert in the field of jumping and barry effectively schooled him on track behind WC. Improved learned to pop a fence, Left him plenty of time Mr breisner is still employed.

Look at tizzards thinking ...

Exactly how it should be done, bring them along slowly, understand the meaning of the term novice. I still think JP will dictate that Yanworth goes stayers but thats for another day

 

[Kevloaf]

Some good points on IO and AbP here. Personally I think the AbP outstaying IO is being over played slightly, because the actual result shows he is also better at this trip (based on the Flogas) and agree with Rob that he looks to be a better horse

HOWEVER, it seems Ruby certainly holds IO in higher regard and the exchanges are saying IO comes here and AbP RSA... so I'd say that is what will happen. There isn't much in it either way either, like scooby said, whiochever they end up in I'm happy with now... although I have had to add 2 pts IO win only 10/1 in this race ..... as a small sacrifice for having ABP at big prices here, (and ABP and IO big prices RSA)....

IO isn't my idea of the winner in this race however, but would definitely be less than half the price he is now.

 

[Robbante]

I’m just going to come out and say it, I’ve had a punt on Modus for this at 10s! It just looks open to me, and I’ve been really taken by Modus’ turn of foot in his races this year. The worry is something (likely Willoughby Court) will get him off the bridle early and take the finishing sting out of him, but if the race is run to suit and he travels well then I’d back him to outpace the likes of invitation only down the stretch

 

[TCH29]

I was about to say something similar. Well ask why not many seem to fancy him.....I'm on Modus at 20s. When he won at the start of the season STD was full of praise, basically saying the horse had a lot more in his locker. He said you'd see a lot more improvement later in the season. Since then, he fell, but then cruised around in his last race. Most of the horses at the top of the antepost market are going elsewhere. WC doesn't look to be in the best form. And this is the sort of race I can imagine Nicholls really focussing on given his dearth of Championship race horses.

Modus winning is my joker in the pack when it comes to Mults. Would be very fun.

 

[Robbante]

I was about to say something similar. Well ask why not many seem to fancy him.....I'm on Modus at 20s. When he won at the start of the season STD was full of praise, basically saying the horse had a lot more in his locker. He said you'd see a lot more improvement later in the season. Since then, he fell, but then cruised around in his last race. Most of the horses at the top of the antepost market are going elsewhere. WC doesn't look to be in the best form. And this is the sort of race I can imagine Nicholls really focussing on given his dearth of Championship race horses.

Modus winning is my joker in the pack when it comes to Mults. Would be very fun.

I get the impression they’ve left plenty in the tank where Modus is concerned, with his season being aimed at this race. Fancy Nicholls to have a decent festival this time and this could be his biggest winner

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I get the impression they’ve left plenty in the tank where Modus is concerned, with his season being aimed at this race. Fancy Nicholls to have a decent festival this time and this could be his biggest winner

Not my idea of the winner Robbante, unfortunately I just don't think he is good enough.

Was a bookies horse for much of last season, because he was held in high regard, since joining Nicholls he went off favourite no fewer than 12 times from 15 runs over both hurdles and chases, and all bar one of them races he won one where he was actually odds against, the other times he was entitled to win, being as short as he was in the betting.

He started off as a fair hurdler with Paul, until he was stepped up in class, and I think the same will happen with him as a chaser, I'm not taking that Grade 2 chase he won at Wincanton seriously as only 3 ran, come to think of it he has yet to contest a chase with more than 4 runners, which in fairness probably says more about the lack of novice chasers in this country compared with Ireland!

He has only beat what has been put in front of him apart from that 1 fall, although he did look like he was going to be beat that day and West Approach isn't a horse whose form would give me confidence in another for a race like this!

I must admit though, in review of how this race could pan out and the number of runners there might be he may well hit a place, and think it is a race that will be devoid of overall quality compared with the Arkle & RSA now.