Vinndication - JLT
It's great to see Kim Bailey throwing together some decent squads again, and this year he certainly seems to have a few sharp ones in the form of Red River (145) and First Flow (144). Kim is reported to have said Vinndication was the best of his novices last year and has gone somewhat under the radar having missed the big spring festivals. The form book to date certainly shows promise in racking up a 4-timer over hurdles, including a neck beating of the well regarded Champ (conceding 6lbs) and then comfortably accounting for Western Ryder in the Sydney Banks. I've seen Western Ryder pop in a quite a few HTFs this year and he obviously put in a decent performance when coming an unlucky 6th in the Supreme. My belief is had Vinndication run in the Ballymore, he would have placed, but I had backed him so that could be wallet-bias.
What interests me most about Vinndication is that his hurdle season was never a priority. Kim described him as a "big baby" last year, and he's an athletic sort that should really improve for going chasing.
You can justifiably raise concerns that his three hurdle races to date were on soft but the breeding suggests he will handle the better ground and he won his bumper on good ground just fine. Indeed until we see racecourse evidence otherwise, I can't mark him down for that.
Regarding target he's been running mainly over mid-range trips and Kim appears inclined to start him off here. Although you can certainly see them stepping up to 3 miles, if the staying novice division is as hot as we are all expecting it to be I think those trainers that have horses with enough speed will be dropping down to the JLT.
Black Op is a fair favourite here on talent alone, but holes can be picked in his armour. You'd be worried about the tendency to clatter an obstacle at crucial moments, which certainly cost him victory against Santini. In my eyes 8/1 is too short for his profile and seems to be more down to a lack of viable opposition at this early stage. Should Samcro be re-routed here, then this might cause me to reconsider somewhat.
On balance, I think the 33/1 available for Vinndication is too generous and I want to get him on-side - he'd likely be half that having run at Cheltenham. You might consider a saver on the RSA (Bet 365 if you have that luxury).
