J.L.T Novices Chase 2019

[Scooby91]

Hi Scooby , Hendo recently gave three to follow from his yard on his twitter account , Claimantakinforgan was one of them. I am same as you pretty keen on him , chasing will bring out improvement and can see him having a good season. Before i get involved betting wise I want to know where Samcro likely to crop up.

Yeh that's fair enough, samcro is nailed on for a CH campaign. But no worries in waiting .

 

[thistlecracker]

Hi Scooby , Hendo recently gave three to follow from his yard on his twitter account , Claimantakinforgan was one of them. I am same as you pretty keen on him , chasing will bring out improvement and can see him having a good season. Before i get involved betting wise I want to know where Samcro likely to crop up.

Do you know who the other two horses were ?

 

[The Beast]

Do you know who the other two horses were ?

Mr Whipped

Lust For Glory

 

[SAMCRO]

It was 3 to follow owned by Grech and Parkin

 

[Kevloaf]

Irish dominated race, ill be waiting to see what Mullins and Elliott have for this race come January.

I'd love a price on Mullins to win this race this far out.

 

[Kevloaf]

I'd be pretty keen on claimantakinforgan here, he looks a chaser to me all over and deffinately needs the step up in trip. I'd expect him to be a considerably better chaser than hurdler

Be interesting to see him up against Black Op again who beat him 2L+ in a bumper if they both make it to the JLT!

Black Op is (obviously) a major potential player in this race so 3 times the price is worth noting.

Claimintakinforgan doesn't have a sexy enough profile or enough wins as a hurdler for me to back him at this stage but I'll certainly be following his progress!

 

[Scooby91]

Be interesting to see him up against Black Op again who beat him 2L+ in a bumper if they both make it to the JLT!

Black Op is (obviously) a major potential player in this race so 3 times the price is worth noting.

Claimintakinforgan doesn't have a sexy enough profile or enough wins as a hurdler for me to back him at this stage but I'll certainly be following his progress!

I like the way he finishes all his races, he carried a fair weight in the Scottish champion and had some nice horses behind him, lost in translation form has worked out well his ptp has worked out well, he diddnt get his ground from December onwards, and he's crying out for a fence and step up in trip

 

[Kevloaf]

Just doing a post in the Gold Cup thread but noticed a fun little coincedence...

In the 2018 JLT I thread I posted this the day before the Scilly Isles Chase:

Terrefort - JLT - 20/1 e/w NRNB

4 of the last 5 winners have gone on to race in the JLT at Chelt, Top Notch and Bristol De Mai the most recent two for the same owners who both placed behind good horses at the festival

As fav, hopefully Terrefort wins tomorrow and has a better chance than 20/1 in the JLT.

Munir/Suede have had the winner of the Scilly Isles go on to finish 2nd in the JLT 3 years in a row, Terrefort following on from Bristol De Mai and Top Notch. They also had the winner Gitane Du Berlais in 2015 who didn't run at Cheltenham...

The Scilly Isles is on 2nd Feb 2019 so I'll be keeping an eye on that race for the entries so I can work out who will come 2nd in the JLT in March! :highly_amused:

 

[Folski]

Just doing a post in the Gold Cup thread but noticed a fun little coincedence...

In the 2018 JLT I thread I posted this the day before the Scilly Isles Chase:



Munir/Suede have had the winner of the Scilly Isles go on to finish 2nd in the JLT 3 years in a row, Terrefort following on from Bristol De Mai and Top Notch. They also had the winner Gitane Du Berlais in 2015 who didn't run at Cheltenham...

The Scilly Isles is on 2nd Feb 2019 so I'll be keeping an eye on that race for the entries so I can work out who will come 2nd in the JLT in March! :highly_amused:

Well spotted Kev

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Another Claimantakinforgan fan and backer signing in. Think 33/1 is a terrific price for him. As scooby says, looks like he's crying out for a fence and a step up in trip.

 

[billymag]

Caribean Boy is now owned by Munir and Suede and is a 4 year old with Nicky that could easily go down the Scilly Isles route b4 a crack at the JLT.

 

[SeanRock]

Vision Des Flos has double entries again this weekend. Over 2m5f at Ffos Las & 2m3f at Sedgefield.

I can only guess they dodged Chepstow on Saturday due to unsuitably good ground so we may see him at Ffos Las where they will probably get a nice safe surface.

 

[Kevloaf]

Caribean Boy is now owned by Munir and Suede and is a 4 year old with Nicky that could easily go down the Scilly Isles route b4 a crack at the JLT.

Straight into the tracker....

 

[Kevloaf]

I'd be pretty keen on claimantakinforgan here, he looks a chaser to me all over and deffinately needs the step up in trip. I'd expect him to be a considerably better chaser than hurdler

Another Claimantakinforgan fan and backer signing in. Think 33/1 is a terrific price for him. As scooby says, looks like he's crying out for a fence and a step up in trip.

I need to give him [Claimintakinforgan] another look because at the time you mentioned it scooby I said "he doesn't have enough wins over hurdles or a sexy enough profile for me to have a bet at this stage"....

I'm surprised nobody pulled me up on that.... that is two of the worst reasons there would ever be to back a horse! What I meant was, I always thought of him as a Supreme candidate and he disappointed me, and I hadn't bothered looking at him for novice chases.

Will watch back his races and see if I see the need for a step up and fences now

 

[Kevloaf]

Lostintranslation is one to bare in mind for this race - only 16/1 which is rubbish to be honest but Tizzard seems keen:

"He is probably one of our nicest novice hurdlers going forward to novice chasing. He had very good form and took on the best at Newbury and ran well enough at Cheltenham. He was only touched off at Aintree and is top drawer and has schooled in the outdoor school in the last fortnight. As soon as we get some decent Winter ground he will be out over two to two and half miles. I am sure he will stay further and he is a beautiful horse. We hold him in very high regard."

 

[Viking Flagship]

Yeah agreed re price Kev. I like him but would want 25s at this point.

 

[Willdunn99]

Kevloaf, I’m quietly keen on lostintranslation and have backed on William Hill any race Market 20/1. Seems a fair price given the any race security, and watching the Aintree run which he could easily of Won the price difference between Black Op and lostintranskation
Seems too big!

 

[Kevloaf]

Kevloaf, I’m quietly keen on lostintranslation and have backed on William Hill any race Market 20/1. Seems a fair price given the any race security, and watching the Aintree run which he could easily of Won the price difference between Black Op and lostintranskation
Seems too big!

So you can get 22/1 for Lostintranslation any race, and 16s for the JLT which I'd plump for as his target.

They'll likely be slow updating the market when he does make an entry so will see how that is going

 

[Viking Flagship]

Kevloaf, I’m quietly keen on lostintranslation and have backed on William Hill any race Market 20/1. Seems a fair price given the any race security, and watching the Aintree run which he could easily of Won the price difference between Black Op and lostintranskation
Seems too big!

Must admit that had passed me by! How bizarre... and interesting!

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Have added Voix Du Reve for this race today with 365 @ 25/1.

Only 2 main bookmakers offering a price on him, and 365 are best currently, plus have the cash out option.

By the same sire as Vroum Vroum Mag & former JLT winner Taquin De Seuil, as well as notable others including last years 4th in this race, Kemboy, Voix Du Reve's juvenile form was very solid, and he was looking like putting it to Diego Du Charmil in the Fred Winter of the 2016 festival before falling at the last. Last season he never really stopped racing, but looking at the way he has been raced, over numerous different trips you'd have to question the placements and the reasons for them, either way I am happy to write that season off!

Since May of this year he has run 5 times, winning 3 of them, his only 3 wins to date, all between 2m 2f & 2m 4f. He started off his chase campaign at Galway this month, where bar a couple of novicey mistakes his jumping was slick and impeccable, for me about as good as you could possibly ask for from a novice. He looks like he needs an intermediate trip, and the JLT looks bang on for him.

The Wiley's have good history winning this race, with both Yorkhill (2017) & Black Hercules (2016) to date, and Willie Mullins is not shy when it comes to this race either, winning 4 of the 8 runnings to date.

I do question whether he has the class to win it, but at 25/1 he won't be that price if he makes it to the race, given how easily these novice chase fields can fall apart as others take up different engagements, and is a price I am happy to have a go at.