J.L.T Novices Chase 2019

[BigChaang]

As i got it wrong for the Al bartlett thread last year , I'll start by mentioning SAMCRO ,
currently sitting as Favourite for this race at around 7-2. Personally I have taken prices on two horses .
Black Op - trained by Tom George @ 10-1 , and Kalashnikov - trained by Amy Murphy @ 25-1 .
Amy Murphy i am sure said that she thought her horse would be better over further. and Black Op
has shown he's up with the best at Cheltenham and Aintree.

 

[Istabraq]

This has to be the most likely race for Samcro to land but with so many options he couldn't be on my mind for any specific race.

I've bored you all before with my thoughts on the Ballymore, Black Op never took off at the last and bulldozed his way to the other side, it didn't appear to cost him much momentum but it wouldn't have helped and given he was a couple of lengths behind the Giggs superstar he was the one I took from the race, and then of course he franked that form at Aintree.
10/1 is very fair so I can see why you've played that, again though, he would have other options too....

 

[archie]

The UK has only won this race once in 8 editions. I'd be looking at what the Irish have coming through..........
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.
.
.
around Christmas time.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

I expect to see Samcro in this and going off at 8/15 minimum

However, I won’t be backing him at 4/1. Instead I’m on for any race at 5/2.

 

[BigChaang]

Who's the 5-2 any Race with M.O.M. ?.

 

[Kevloaf]

Who's the 5-2 any Race with M.O.M. ?.

Willhill

I don't expect Samcro to run here, however as said elsewhere, if I did I'd 100% be taking 5/2 any race over 4/1 for this race.

I personally don't think 5/2 is worthwhile at the moment, as if he gets declared as staying over hurdles you'll be able to get 5/2 for the specific target of the CH and I wouldn't have him as favourite over Buveur D'air.... and if he is going novice chasing, the "any race" price would be similar, as nobody could be sure either way and I doubt they'll declare it before he runs.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Willhill

I don't expect Samcro to run here, however as said elsewhere, if I did I'd 100% be taking 5/2 any race over 4/1 for this race.

I personally don't think 5/2 is worthwhile at the moment, as if he gets declared as staying over hurdles you'll be able to get 5/2 for the specific target of the CH and I wouldn't have him as favourite over Buveur D'air.... and if he is going novice chasing, the "any race" price would be similar, as nobody could be sure either way and I doubt they'll declare it before he runs.

You can price boost the 5/2 to an 11/4 shot, and I have, but he's one of the bets that I'd take back if I could. If he's confirmed for a novice chase campaign we'll still be able to get 5/2 any race imo.

I think they'll stay over hurdles and if I'm right the 11/4 is not a great bet given that'll the Champion Hurdle will be his only target.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Who's the 5-2 any Race with M.O.M. ?.

William Hill bud. Been 5/2 from as soon as the Festival ended.

 

[Hurricane fly]

Samcro went off odds on against Melon, assuming he is over hurdles and mops up everything in Ireland before facing BDA I’d be surprised if he is bigger than 11/4

 

[Scooby91]

Samcro went off odds on against Melon, assuming he is over hurdles and mops up everything in Ireland before facing BDA I’d be surprised if he is bigger than 11/4

I'd be almost certain samcro goes chasing. Jlt the obvious target but current prices are not of interest to me, especially the way injuries went last season, he's only a shade of odds on to make it there sound.

 

[Kevloaf]

Samcro went off odds on against Melon, assuming he is over hurdles and mops up everything in Ireland before facing BDA I’d be surprised if he is bigger than 11/4

If he stays hurdling you don't need the any race market though ... you cam just back him in the CH.

The price against Melon was hype based and plenty of people thought Melon was a better bet.

I'd expect Buveur D'air to beat Samcro over hurdles until I see Samcro do something much more impressive than beat Black Op.

Even though it's not a huge "if", Samcro hasn't proven himself a champion hurdler yet.... and I still don't think he ever will, albeit because I am confident they'll stick to the original plan and go chasing. I don't see how falling at Punchestown makes out likely he stays over hurdles at all ... if anything, it puts a line under it for me, and he embarks on a chasing career and we forget all about his relative hurdles career

 

[FaugheenTheMachine]

I agree; the only way they stayed hurdling was if he won at Punchestown imho

 

[Hurricane fly]

Just to clarify I don’t expect him to stay hurdling, it just seemed bycomments that people were suggesting he would be bigger than the 5/2 or 11/4 any race price that is around now, and I don’t think that is the case.

Black Ops form makes a 2+ length victory the strongest novice form of the year for me, and like I say on the assumption he goes to Cheltenham unbeaten he would be a smaller price than the AR price now.

Long story short I think the 5/2 AR is the value bet for Samcro (if such a price can be value this far out) even though I expect him to go here.

I would however be interested to see if Black Op goes here or the RSA, he only lost to santini by half a length over 2.5

 

[Scooby91]

Just to clarify I don’t expect him to stay hurdling, it just seemed bycomments that people were suggesting he would be bigger than the 5/2 or 11/4 any race price that is around now, and I don’t think that is the case.

Black Ops form makes a 2+ length victory the strongest novice form of the year for me, and like I say on the assumption he goes to Cheltenham unbeaten he would be a smaller price than the AR price now.

Long story short I think the 5/2 AR is the value bet for Samcro (if such a price can be value this far out) even though I expect him to go here.

I would however be interested to see if Black Op goes here or the RSA, he only lost to santini by half a length over 2.5

I'd have thought it will be between the jlt and arkle for black op personally, (with summerville boy staying over hurdles) I'll be suprised if he dosent atleast start at 2m.

 

[archie]

Less than 3 months since:
1. Shattered Love
2. Terrefort
3. Benatar
4. Kemboy

Check out where they were a year ago and consider what sort of price you want about your current fancy.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Less than 3 months since:
1. Shattered Love
2. Terrefort
3. Benatar
4. Kemboy

Check out where they were a year ago and consider what sort of price you want about your current fancy.

Good point Archie - they wouldn't be on the radar, neither would Black Hercules from a couple of seasons ago. On the flip side of that, Yorkhill and Vautour are two recent winners of the JLT that were at the head of the market from an early stage.

Like many on here, I'll be making best use of the any race markets rather than trying to pick a novice to win over intermediate distances at this stage.

 

[Kevloaf]

Less than 3 months since:
1. Shattered Love
2. Terrefort
3. Benatar
4. Kemboy

Check out where they were a year ago and consider what sort of price you want about your current fancy.

You don't get paid out on 4th?
Why have you included 4th

:encouragement: Tis a good point though ... I am probably the canary down the mine for a few people on here, so if I am not having a bet yet, then maybe it isn't safe :highly_amused:

any news on Kemboy archie? All safe and sound out to grass? (Where does he go to grass?)

 

[archie]

You don't get paid out on 4th?
Why have you included 4th

:encouragement: Tis a good point though ... I am probably the canary down the mine for a few people on here, so if I am not having a bet yet, then maybe it isn't safe :highly_amused:

any news on Kemboy archie? All safe and sound out to grass? (Where does he go to grass?)

:highly_amused:
4th does get you into the winners enclosure though. I did think of adding '5. Finians Oscar' given he was one of the big fancies a year ago.
I actually included Kemboy because, when I bought into him in September (?), he was being aimed at the stayers hurdle. Just an example of how difficult it is to predict a Festival target this far out and further backing for the 'any race' punters.
Kemboy is, as far as I know, safely on his hols. Willie has a separate facility although some owners like to take their horses home for the summer.

 

[BigChaang]

:highly_amused:
4th does get you into the winners enclosure though. I did think of adding '5. Finians Oscar' given he was one of the big fancies a year ago.
I actually included Kemboy because, when I bought into him in September (?), he was being aimed at the stayers hurdle. Just an example of how difficult it is to predict a Festival target this far out and further backing for the 'any race' punters.
Kemboy is, as far as I know, safely on his hols. Willie has a separate facility although some owners like to take their horses home for the summer.

Just out of Curiosity Archie , when was the decision made to go J.L.T, ?.

 

[archie]

Just out of Curiosity Archie , when was the decision made to go J.L.T, ?.

I actually bought in in October, BC, and looking back through the monthly Supreme newsletters he's still set for hurdles at the start of October but switched to chasing at the start of November. Essentially, if they come back in at the end of July it will be 10 weeks or so before they're in fast work. I think that Patrick schooled him at that time and was impressed and the rest is history.

As far as the actual race is concerned, he was left in the Arkle, JLT and RSA at the 6 day stage but he would have been stable second or third choice in any of them and unless something happened to the likes of Footpad or Al Boum Photo he was likely to go for the JLT from about 6 weeks out.