Irish Grand National 2022

[FinalFurlong91]

Irish Grand National Betting Trends


17/18 – Carried 10-13 or LESS
16/18 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
17/18 – Won over at least 3m previously
16/18 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or less
15/18 – Irish bred
15/18 – Carried 10-8 or LESS
15/18 – Aged 9 or younger
14/18 – Won by an Irish-based trainer
14/18 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
14/18 – Returned a double-figure (or triple-figure) price
12/18 – Carried 10-6 or LESS
12/18 – Had raced at Fairyhouse previously
11/18 – Unplaced favourites
10/18 – Finished fourth or better last time out
10/18 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
9/18 – Rated between 130-137
4/18 – Won by an English-based trainer
3/18 – Ran at Navan last time out
3/18 – Won last time out
3/18 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 28/1

 

[FinalFurlong91]

So we want a 3 mile+ winner, who is 9 or younger, carrying less than 11 stone that has run in the last 8 weeks

surely there wont be another stats buster after a 7yo won the english version

 

[That Horse]

I did Velvet Elvis simply because of the name - can't recall a more bizarre name for a horse.

I see Price wise has tipped him now and caused his price to move.

Might have a look again tomorrow but really need to stop backing multiple horses in big field handicaps

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Have had a skim through the field using the trends and the 7 I can see that fit them are

Velvet Elvis
Frontal Assault
Time to get up
Mister Fogpatches
Streets of doyen
Smoking Gun
school boy hours

Now to decide which ones to back

 

[Zachx02]

Have had a skim through the field using the trends and the 7 I can see that fit them are

Velvet Elvis
Frontal Assault
Time to get up
Mister Fogpatches
Streets of doyen
Smoking Gun
school boy hours

Now to decide which ones to back

Frontal Assault and School Boy Hours for me, Mister Fogpatches always tends to run a good race too

 

[BigChaang]

I have backed Mister Fogpatches and Farclas so far , Might add another one later , after a read through the form again.
Edit..... Just cashed out Farclas and replaced with Time to get Up.:boxing:.
Double Edit ... added Ten Ten as Mark walsh is riding .

 

[charlie]

Have had a skim through the field using the trends and the 7 I can see that fit them are

Velvet Elvis
Frontal Assault
Time to get up
Mister Fogpatches
Streets of doyen
Smoking Gun
school boy hours

Now to decide which ones to back

Excellent work. I've ruled out Streets of doyen, Smoking Gun and Time to get up, but backed the other 4.

 

[Lobos]

Since 2008 a different trainer has won the Irish National every year as well as a different Jockey. Taking these stats into account and using Final Furlongs list, the only 2 that can win are.... Mister Fogpatches and Streets of Doyen.

Easy this game .....:biggrin-new:

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

My main bet is going to be Early Doors. Looks quite plotty.

Frontal Assault and Farclas will probably be my only back ups.

 

[That Horse]

Added Mr Fogpatches, still 16/1 with Boyle sports 7 places, has been cut with a lot of other bookies.

Small stakes reverse forecast with Elvis as well, it's now or never

 

[Benjy23]

Ran some fairly similar trends but got down to Ten Ten, Mr Fogpatches, Champagne Platinum and Time to Get Up. Will back them all but Champagne Platinum the most solid on the trends imo, what knocked him out of the list above? 70+ on exchanges looks very generous.

 

[Lobos]

I can't see why Final Furlong knocked him out either Benjy?? Meets my 2 stats as well.

Final Furlong, can you explain please??

 

[FinalFurlong91]

In my very thorough sweep of the runners whilst enjoying a Guinness and watching the golf I must've missed him

He fits the trends I was using perfectly and is a huge price on betfair so cam have a couple of quid of my money

I've now backed
Smoking Gun, Streets of doyen and champagne platinum all huge prices on betfair for small stakes

Plus time to get up, Velvet Elvis and Frontal Assault at more sensible prices

 

[Lobos]

Cheers FF. Just the 3 left then. Champagne Platinum, Mister Fogpatches and Streets of Doyen. 3 Ew singles, combination forecasts and tricasts. Job done:excitement:

 

[Big Bucks]

Foul play from Gigginstown with the late non runners?

Do you think its a rule needs looked at or addressed? Regarding reserves, declarations etc

Obviously no proving what they done, but very suspicious and can see why some could see it as a tactic. Or can it be looked at by stewards?

 

[robith]

Have backed School Boy Hours and Mister Fogpatches, but at a bigger price, whilst not well treated in the weights, Lord Lariat loves a handicap chase at Fairyhouse - P712215

 

[archie]

If there's any stat to be broken, it might be the weight carried. Firstly, it's not a 100% stat. Secondly, there's no big star at the top of the weights putting the rest on lower weights. Thirdly, although the going has eased it's nothing like as bad as it has been in some years.

All that said, I'd still have Mr Fogpatches as the best each way pick.

 

[DenmanSacre]

Not a race I'll get involved in but would like to see Velvet Elvis run a big race. Was on my shortlist at the start of the year for the Kim Muir and other staying handicap chases after his win against Capilano Bridge and 3rd to Gars de Sceaux last year.

May be a year too early and I suspect he's slightly better left handed but he will be one for the staying chase handicaps next season.

Fakir D'Alene was the other in the race on my early shortlist for staying chases this season but I think he's been harshly treated by the handicapper.

 

[Lobos]

If there's any stat to be broken, it might be the weight carried. Firstly, it's not a 100% stat. Secondly, there's no big star at the top of the weights putting the rest on lower weights. Thirdly, although the going has eased it's nothing like as bad as it has been in some years.

All that said, I'd still have Mr Fogpatches as the best each way pick.

Yes Arch. Fogpatches is a big stat Horse

 

[robith]

Have backed School Boy Hours and Mister Fogpatches, but at a bigger price, whilst not well treated in the weights, Lord Lariat loves a handicap chase at Fairyhouse - P712215

I hearby retire from FJ tipping