So here we are, National week. One of those unusual years in which days rather than weeks separate the Crabbie’s Aintree Grand National and the BoyleSports Irish one.
There are many differences between the two versions. There are the fences for starters, big and spruce and green but softer these days at Aintree, most of them named; smaller but still big, and black and birch and tough at Fairyhouse, and none of them named, with the possible exception of the ‘one at Ballyhack’.
There is the age thing too. Like, if you are a seven-year-old at Aintree, you are trying to build a bridge back to the war years (Bogskar, 1940) and if you are eight you are talking of Bindaree in 2002, just the third eight-year-old winner since Red Rum’s first in 1973. Even if you are nine, you are looking back six year’s to the last one. (National archive.) It is an older horse’s race.
Not so the Irish one. Shutthefrontdoor last year was seven, Liberty Counsel and Lion Na Bearnai were both 10, Organisedconfusion was six, Bluesea Cracker and Niche Market were eight. Indeed, in the last decade, every age from six to 10 inclusive was represented in the winner’s enclosure. In the last 20 years, the race has been won by a six-year-old once, a seven-year-old six times, an eight-year-old five times, a nine-year-old three times, a 10-year-old four times and even an 11-year-old once. From an age perspective, it’s anybody’s race. (National lottery.)
The weight factor in the Irish National is big, however, possibly even bigger than it is at Aintree. While Hedgehunter pushed through the 11st barrier at Aintree in 2005, and Don’t Push It and Neptune Collonges have both proven since that a high weight does not rule you out, the percentage call at Aintree is still to look for a horse with a low(ish) weight.
A low weight is even more important at Fairyhouse. Only one horse (Shutthefrontdoor last year) has carried more than 10st 8lb to victory in the last decade, and only two have carried more than 10st 5lb. In the last 20 years, only the top class Flashing Steel, subsequent Aintree National winner Bobbyjo and subsequent Heineken Gold Cup winner and Cheltenham Gold Cup runner-up Commanche Court have carried big weights to victory in the Irish National. You really should start your search at the bottom of the handicap.
Take Empire to solve National riddle
Empire Of Dirt’s handicap rating of 132 sees him set to carry just 10st 2lb, and highly-talented Luke Dempsey’s 5lb claim takes his weight down to 9st 11lb, a weight that he can easily do. That gives Gigginstown House horse a real chance.
He is a nicely progressive novice chaser, the type of horse who can do really well in the Irish National. He was a good novice hurdler last season, just below top class, but he is built to jump fences and he has been steadily progressive all season since tackling the larger obstacles.
He looked certain to win a two-mile-six-furlong handicap chase at Thurles in January when he bounded clear off the home turn, but he came down at the tricky second last fence. He actually jumped the fence well, but the ground runs away from you a little on the landing side, and that just caught him out.
He made amends next time at Naas, however, in a good two-and-a-half-mile novices’ handicap chase. Always handy, he eased his way to the front as they embarked on their final circuit, he jumped well and he stayed on well all the way to the line to beat Champagne James by a length, the pair of them clear.
The handicapper raised him 7lb for that, but that was not harsh, it was strong form. Also, it brings him up to a mark of just 132, just 1lb higher than his hurdles mark. Given his size and scope, you have to think that the Colm Murphy-trained gelding will be a better chaser than a hurdler. He is just eight and he has raced just six times over fences, so he has the potential to go a fair way beyond that rating now over fences.
The step up to three miles and five furlongs will be a big step into the unknown. He has never raced over a distance in excess of two miles and six furlongs over fences and, on his only attempt at three miles over hurdles, he disappointed.
That said, he is built and bred to be a staying chaser. By top stayer Westerner, he is a half-brother to staying chaser Panther Claw, and he is out of a mare who won over two miles and six furlongs, a half-sister to Thyestes Chase winner Be My Belle. He should stay three miles at least, and there is every chance that he will stay further. In fact, it is probable that he will improve for the step up to staying trips now. He looks over-priced at 14/1.
There are many others with chances. (It is an Irish National after all.) The Ted Walsh-trained Champagne James has a similar profile to Empire Of Dirt’s, and Barry Connell’s horse could run a big race, although he is another who has to prove his stamina for this extreme trip, and his pedigree is not as stamina-oriented as Empire Of Dirt’s.
The Job Is Right and Perfect Gentleman, from the Michael Hourigan and Willie Mullins yards respectively, represent strong form from the National Hunt Chase, a race that can be a good pointer to the Irish National, while last season’s Thyestes Chase runner-up, the Jim Dreaper-trained Los Amigos, could easily make amends for last year, when he was ruled out of the Irish National at the 11th hour. (National disaster.)
Grand Jesture has more weight than ideal, but Henry de Bromhead’s horse won his beginners’ chase at the track and he ran a cracker to finish second to The Druids Nephew at the Cheltenham Festival. And then there is Cantlow. If Cantlow happened to win it, if AP McCoy could sign off in Ireland with victory in the Irish Grand National, well that would be a strong argument for the instigation of a National holiday.
