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Irish Grand National 2015

I suppose WW's chance will be ground dependent, if it's good ground then top weights can come into their own, but I can't see that being very likely, the softer the ground and the further the race it plays ever more into the hands of the lower weights
 
I put up The Job Is Right and Perfect Gentlemen for the 4 Miler at Cheltenham and I think both will also run well here (if they run), especially the later.
PG ran a cracker for most of the race and it looked like the extra distance or fitness caught him out. Note: his previous run was back in December and he was stepped up in distance for the first time. This time round he will be much fitter as long as he came out well and the drop in distance will suit. The 4 miler could have actually been his prep run? :encouragement:
 
Job is right - yes. Hourican also has Crafty Butcher also lurking at bottom of weights and might have been laid out for this.

It is strange Mullins has never won this.

Champagne James is another of the horses we talked about for Cheltenham. Katie rode the horse like it was a prep:mad:i
 
Tony Martin has said Gallant Oscar is unlikely to run on Monday, thinks it's come a little too soon after Cheltenham so will probably wait till Aintree. Why will any of the others that had hard races at Cheltenham be any different then, maybe this should be a clue as to which horses to leave alone.
Adds weight to MG's thinking regarding Champagne James being given an easy time.
 
is if in doubt trained by hobbs still in ran well in a grade 1 at cheltenham when 5th behind don poli could go better stepped up in trip
 
What will AP ride in this ? Pendra ? If in Doubt ?

Price crash inevitable the way his mounts are being backed

CANTLOW has been cut to 9-1 clear favourite by Ladbrokes for the Irish Grand National, with Tony McCoy potentially set to ride the ante-post gamble in Monday’s race.

The Paul Webber-trained chaser was beaten 14 lengths in the BoyleSports-sponsored Fairyhouse showpiece off an official rating of 150 last year but is now rated a stone lower, having shown little since and suffering breathing issues.

However, he is reportedly pleasing in his preparation and Ladbrokes spokeswoman Hayley O’Connor said: “The money we’ve seen for Cantlow suggests he could well be the subject of a sustained Easter weekend gamble ahead of his Fairyhouse run.”

McCoy, riding at the meeting for the last time, has three options in the race, with Cantlow and likely topweight If In Doubt already preferred to Alderwood.

“It’s between Cantlow and If In Doubt as to who AP rides,” said JP McManus’s racing manager Frank Berry.

He added: “Cantlow has had a few breathing problems but he has been working very well with a tongue tie on him.

“He’s a stone below last year – he’d want to be, given what he has been doing. Hopefully he is over his breathing issues and Paul Webber is happy with him. He ran well in the race last year and, while he has lost his way, he is working much better.

“If In Doubt’s jumping is not wonderful but he jumped reasonably well at Cheltenham. It’s a big ask for him.”
 
Katie Walsh

KATIE WALSH – 03 APRIL 2015 03:00 AM

Monday is obviously a big day in Irish racing as it's Irish Grand National day and with AP McCoy over to have his final rides in Ireland, there is sure to be even more hype surrounding the three-days.


The Irish Grand National is a race that has been very good to us in the past and with Champagne James set to run on Monday, I hope it's a race that will continue to be very good to us.

Of course, Commanche Court won the race for Dad in 2000, which was the same year as Papillon won the English National and Papillon himself ran a cracker in the Irish National in 1998 when he was second to Bobbyjo.

Jack High was also second in it when Ruby just got up to beat him on Numbersixvalverde for Martin Brassil so it's certainly a race we have plenty of fond memories of.

Champagne James has appeared to come out of his run at Cheltenham very well and while Cheltenham is Cheltenham and is the biggest meeting of the year, you have to be a very sharp-acting horse to go around there and I'd say Champagne James just wants more of a galloping track which he'll certainly get on Monday.

I don't think we are due much rain over the weekend but there is heavy in the description at the moment and the 3m5f is going to take a lot of getting. I'd be hopeful that the trip and the ground will suit Champagne James.

WIDE OPEN

It certainly is a wide open renewal and anyone involved in the race can look forward to a very competitive event. You can make cases for so many. One thing I would question on Monday though is whether a horse will be able to buck out and be handy on that ground and over the trip. If something does he'll be a very good horse.

In the last number of years, the Irish National has been a happy hunting ground for novices and the likes of The Job is Right, Dogora, Perfect Gentleman and Champagne James are just a few that come under that banner.

So if I was having a bet in the race and was unsure of what to back, I'd be siding with a novice who will handle the ground.

I won't be in Fairyhouse on Easter Monday as I'm going to Cork instead to ride Call It Magic for Ross and I wouldn't like to be the person standing beside me if Champagne James is jumping the last in contention!

Call It Magic is a lovely horse who has done well since winning his point-to-point and a bumper wasn't the first choice with him but it seemed pointless to break his novice status so late in the year so hopefully he can repeat what he did in his point-to-point and get the job done on Monday.

I'll be in Fairyhouse on Sunday to ride in the bumper and after Cork on Monday all road will be leading to Aintree.

I think the track will suit him better than Cheltenham.
 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Irish Grand National decs

Our thread

<a href="http://t.co/JFy90vBb1p">http://t.co/JFy90vBb1p</a> <a href="http://t.co/47SaHu2RPH">pic.twitter.com/47SaHu2RPH</a></p>— Fat Jockey (@FatJockeyTips) <a href="https://twitter.com/FatJockeyTips/status/583954242244845568">April 3, 2015</a></blockquote>
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McCoy doing 10 6 for Cantlow.

Plotted up but no thanks.


similar thoughts to MG - Champagne James and The Crafty Butcher backed.
 
I put up The Job Is Right and Perfect Gentlemen for the 4 Miler at Cheltenham and I think both will also run well here (if they run), especially the later.
PG ran a cracker for most of the race and it looked like the extra distance or fitness caught him out. Note: his previous run was back in December and he was stepped up in distance for the first time. This time round he will be much fitter as long as he came out well and the drop in distance will suit. The 4 miler could have actually been his prep run? :encouragement:

Perfect Gentleman has been slashed from 20's - 12's. Does anyone know why?
 
Perfect Gentleman has been slashed from 20's - 12's. Does anyone know why?

Ruby Factor.

Mayo

Can't see one piece of form that gives The Crafty Butcher a chance.
 
Daring Article and She's got grit are amongst 5 that I can find that fulfill the recent trends criteria for this race so I'll take both of these each way, around 25/1 and 40/1
 
Daring Article and She's got grit are amongst 5 that I can find that fulfill the recent trends criteria for this race so I'll take both of these each way, around 25/1 and 40/1

:encouragement: daring article backed here
 
By Ruby Walsh

I am happy to be riding Perfect Gentleman in the BoyleSports Irish Grand National on Monday. I think he has the right profile for the race and 10-10 is a lovely weight.
He ran a blinder in the four-miler in Cheltenham. He was prominent all the way and probably just got run out of it close home. He jumps really well.

It’s a competitive race but I think a novice might win it, something like Lots Of Memories or Perfect Gentleman.

A lot of the handicappers in it are exposed and plenty of them want better ground than we’re likely to get either.

So, you’ll want to be going for a horse that has shown some bit of form on winter ground.

Perfect Gentleman has plenty of age for a novice as a 10-year-old. I’ve only ridden him once, when he beat Sadler’s Risk in Cork last November. That’s not bad form.

He fell in the Drinmore after that and was second to Gilgamboa at Christmas before being fourth in Cheltenham. He stays and has shown enough pace to win over 2½ miles so, with luck in running, has a great chance.
 
Donn On Irish National

Irish National trends

Speaking of which, Nationals and trends that is, the age trend in the Irish Grand National is not at all strong. History tells you that a minor or a senior can win it.

In the last 10 renewals, a six-year-old has won once, a seven-year-old three times, an eight-year-old three times, a nine-year-old once and a 10-year-old twice. In the 10 years before that, a seven-year-old won three times, an eight-year-old won twice, a nine-year-old twice, a 10-year-old twice and an 11-year-old once.

But the weight stat is similar to Aintree’s: lower is better.

The last horse to carry more than 11st to victory in the Irish National was Commanche Court, and he was so good he won the Grade 1 Heineken Gold Cup at Punchestown on his next run. Before Comanche Court, it was subsequent Aintree National winner Bobbyjo, and the two before Bobbyjo were Flashing Steel and Desert Orchid. Shows you how good you have to be to carry big weights to victory.

Nine of the last 10 winners carried 10st 8lb or less. The only one who carried more was last year’s winner Shutthefrontdoor, who is now favourite for the Aintree National, despite the fact that he will have to race off an 11lb higher mark than last year’s Irish National mark. And eight of the last 10 winners carried 10st 5lb or less. So start at the bottom of the handicap and work your way up.
 
"Now that he has decided which horse he is going to ride, people are going to back him no matter what. It will be one of those occasions where people will tell their children and grandchildren they were there and backed AP McCoy's final winner of the Boylesports Irish Grand National. He probably will be a little shorter tomorrow evening than the current 8-1," Blanche said.

Grand Nationals are the stuff of racing fairy tales, from the fictional Pie with a young Elizabeth Taylor racing to glory, to the family successes of the Walshs and Carberrys, and Blanche thinks the farewell to McCoy might not be the only source of a magical ending at Fairyhouse tomorrow.

"We saw a bit of money for Vics Canvas before the McCoy announcement on Friday and he could spoil the party," Blanche said. "He ran a very good race at Leopardstown over Christmas and this race seems to have been the plan since then. He is trained locally by Dermot McLoughlin, which would be a fantastic success in itself, and I just think that if anyone was going to do it, it might be him."

If the sporting fates prefer their fairy tales in the mould of David slaying Goliath then Paul Fahey is hoping they turn a benevolent gaze on Lots Of Memories tomorrow evening.

The eight-year-old claimed the biggest success of his career at Fairyhouse last Easter when winning a three-mile handicap hurdle impressively. Since then, his form has been given added lustre with placed performances behind the likes of Don Poli and Beat All in Grade One races and a success over fences. Twice Fahey has brought Lots Of Memories to Fairyhouse and a second place and victory have been the results.

"We said we would go down the top route with him, but he was well beaten at Leopardstown over Christmas and we thought there was no point chasing those horses around Cheltenham, so we decided to find a handicap for him and this was it," explains Fahey, who also trained his half brother He'llberembered to finish eighth in the race, but Lots Of Memories is a better horse.

While McCoy has the pick of JP McManus' blue bloods to chose from, Paul Fahey and his team have more earthy sorts to work with. Lots Of Memories is owned by the trainer's wife, Siobhain, and their neighbour, John Breen, who comes into ride work for them most mornings before heading off to his actual job. The horse was bred by Mary Lett in Wexford, who Fahey, part of the renowned farrier family from outside Monasterevin, has worked for and known for 30 years. If they are to poop the McCoy party, then an even better celebration after years of toil will erupt.

"The horses are reared here, Mary breeds them and to have a horse good enough to even line up against so many expensively-bought horses with a chance is good, but from cheap stallions to get one to land in graded races is a fair achievement. We can compete against the big boys. We might not be able to beat them all the time, but to get one over them once in while would be brilliant," he smiles.

Most may be hoping for a fairy tale farewell for a champion who has graced his sport, but in the place where fairies once dwelt, there are some for whom magic would be a different storybook ending to the Irish Grand National.
 
The Boylesports Irish Grand National Day at Fairyhouse always takes place on Easter Monday, which falls on the 6th April. So, unlike last year’s race, this year’s renewal takes place 6 days before the Aintree equivalent, which means there may be fewer raiders travelling over from Great Britain. Lesser exposed chasers have dominated the race in recent years.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-2-18
7yo: 3-5-52
8yo: 3-9-71
9yo: 1-7-62
10yo: 2-4-43
11yo: 0-2-15
12yo+: 0-1-5
Horses aged 6 to 8: 7-16-141
Horses aged 9 or older: 3-14-125
7 of last 9 winners have been aged 6 to 8
There has been no winners aged over 10 in past 10 years. There have been 3 winners aged 11+ in past 30 years, all 3 were trained in Great Britain.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-6 or more: 2-12-108
Horses carrying 10-5 or less: 8-18-158
9 of last 10 winners have all carried 10-8 or less (exception carried 10-13)
Of the 34 horses to carry 11-0+ in last 10 years (0-1-34), none have won and only 1 has made the places.
Record of top weight: PPPPFFP8P8 (0-0-10), only 2 of the 10 horses to be allotted top weight have completed the course.
2 of 10 winners were racing from out of the handicap, none by more than 7lbs.

Official Ratings
Horses rated 137 or higher: 1-9-85
Horses rated 125 to 136: 9-18-171
Horses rated 124 or lower: 0-3-10
9 of 19 winners were officially rated 125 to 136.
Since 2007 all 7 winners and 30 of 32 places were filled by horses rated 128 to 142.

Breeding
Irish bred: 9-23-205
French bred: 1-4-32
British bred: 0-3-22
German bred: 0-0-1
USA bred: 0-0-6
9 of 10 winners have been Irish bred though they have represented 77% of the total runners.
4 of 5 French-bred horses were aged 6 or 7 (exception aged 8)

Recent/Past Form
5 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on last chase start (2 exceptions were unplaced in a grade A h’cap chase & 3 others unplaced at Cheltenham Festival)
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 131+ on last completed chase start
9 of 10 winners posted a chase RPR of 133+ that season
9 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
9 of 10 winners had won a chase at a right-handed track (exception had yet to run right-handed over fences but won 2 of 3 hurdles racing RH)
10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (2 exceptions had finished in first 3 in a 3M point to point)
10 of 10 winners had run in 4 to 12 chases
10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 4 chases
10 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases (5 had yet to win one)
7 of 7 Irish-trained winners had won a chase at Fairyhouse, Navan or Clonmel
5 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in a Grade A or B Leopardstown H'cap Chase since Christmas (2 exceptions finished in first 3 in Ten Up Novice Chase)
9 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers (exception had had just 3 chase starts before that season)
7 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher (2 exceptions were placed in a class 2 or higher chase)
7 of 10 winners won a chase worth 20K+ (2 exceptions placed in a race worth 19K+)
10 of 10 winners had first start in a hurdle, bumper or point to point

Other Races
4M NH Novice Chase winner (Cause Of Causes): 1 (1-0-1)
Ten Up Novice Chase winner (Very Wood): 0F1 (1-0-3)
Nas Na Riogh Novice H'cap Chase winner (Empire Of Dirt): 4 (0-1-1)
Cheltenham Cross Country Chase winner (Rivage D'Or): P4 (0-1-2)
Cork Grand National winner (Vics Canvas): P3 (0-1-2)
Porterstown H'cap Chase winner (Embracing Change): 4P0 (0-1-3)
Woodlands Park Novice Chase winner (Wounded Warrior): 00 (0-0-2)
Daily Mirror Chase winner (Roi Du Mee): RP (0-0-2)
Mercury Engineering Handicap Chase winner (She's Got Grit): 58 (0-0-2)
At The Races Chase winner (Roi Du Mee): PR (0-0-2)
Midlands National winner (Goonyella): PP (0-0-2)
Porter & Co. Beginners Chase winner (Gold Bullet): PFP (0-0-3)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Handicap Chase Final winner (Heathfield): U5P (0-0-3)
Punchestown Grand National Trial winner (Embracing Change): 80P5 (0-0-4)
4 of 10 winners had finished in the first 6 in the 4M NH Novice Chase at Cheltenham that season or the previous season
3 of 3 British-trained winners ran in 4M NH Novice Chase last time, finishing 186
2 of 2 Jonjo O'Neill winners won a 2M 4F chase at Aintree meeting in October
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Paddy Power Handicap Chase, finishing 07
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Thyestes Chase, finishing 10
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Munster National, finishing 0P
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Ten Up Novice Chase, finishing 31
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in previous season's Ten Up Novice Chase, finishing 1F
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in previous season's Hugh McMahon Memorial Novice Chase, finishing 41

Trainers
British trained runners (3-3-25) have won 4 renewals in past 11 years.
Arthur Moore (1-2-10) trained the winner in 2011 and also saddled 4 other placed finishers since 2004.
Thomas Gibney (1-0-2) & Mouse Morris (1-0-5) have also both trained the winner in past 10 years.
The Sandra Hughes yard (0-4-15) were responsible for the winner in 2003 and have seen 4 of his 15 runners in last 10 runnings make the places.
Ted Walsh (0-1-1), Gordon Elliot (0-1-5) & Jim Dreaper (0-1-6) have saddled 1 placed finisher.
Several Irish trainers have done poorly in this race in the past decade such as Willie Mullins (0-2-20), Noel Meade (0-0-15), Tony Martin (0-1-13), Paul Nolan (0-1-11) & Tom Taaffe (0-0-6).

Racing Tactics
7 of 10 winners were settled in mid-division early on
3 of 10 winners tracked leaders

Price
It has been a race for outsiders, with 6 of last 10 winners priced between 20/1 & 50/1, although last year, Shutthefrontdoor became first winning favourite this century.
Favourites (1-2-11) have gained 1 win and 2 places in past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 1.00. Prior to last year, you had to go back to 1999 for last winning favourite.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Irish bred (or French bred aged 6 or 7)
- Aged 6 to 10 (ideally 6 to 8)
- Carrying 10-8 or less (no more than 10-13)
- Officially rated 128 to 142
- Had first run in a bumper/hurdle/point to point
- Posted an RPR of 133+ over fences this season
- Won over 3M+
- Run at least twice this season & run in the past 50 days
- Won a chase at right-handed track
- Previously won a chase Fairyhouse, Navan or Clonmel
- Run in 6 to 13 chases (winning 2 to 4)
- Contested no more than 7 handicap chases (& won no more than 2)
- Won a class 2 or higher chase worth 19K+
- Ran in this season’s Munster National, Paddy Power and/or Thyestes Chase
- Ran in a Grade A or B h’cap chase at Leopardstown since Christmas Day
- Finished in first 4 in 2014 or 2015 Ten Up Novice Chase
- Finished in first 5 in 2014 or 2015 4M NH Novice Chase at Cheltenham
- Trained in Great Britain or
- Trained by, Arthur Moore, Michael Hourigan or a smaller Irish