Handicap Weights

[qzy]

From Timeform...
https://www.timeform.com/horse-raci...estival-handicaps-timefigures-preview--132018

 

[Montelado]

From Timeform...
https://www.timeform.com/horse-raci...estival-handicaps-timefigures-preview--132018

Thanks qzy - Timeform has him as an Ultima horse but even then using the Old Roan as a tie in where he seemed to get outpaced. Still think the shorter distance and up the cheltenham hill would be enough but again these guys have a hell of a lot more knowledge than I could dream of having

 

[jono]

From Timeform...
https://www.timeform.com/horse-raci...estival-handicaps-timefigures-preview--132018

Cheers qzy. Thought this was a really interesting point:

Last season, all the winners from the hurdle races above* went on to contest a Grade One on their next start which emphasises the level horses need to be capable of competing at. In addition, two of the victors (Supasundaeand Presenting Percy) return to this year's festival at the top of Grade One markets.

*county
coral
pertemps
martin pipe
fred winter

 

[Kevloaf]

Cheers qzy. Thought this was a really interesting point:



*county
coral
pertemps
martin pipe
fred winter

LEnds itself to the theory that classier horses are the way to be looking...

However, as a festival handicap winner where else would they go?

and ... I always would try and spot a future graded runner/winner if I could :highly_amused:

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

LEnds itself to the theory that classier horses are the way to be looking...

However, as a festival handicap winner where else would they go?

and ... I always would try and spot a future graded runner/winner if I could :highly_amused:

Just listened to the FFP on my commute. Blake and Delargy have a theory on why those towards the top of the weights appear to have a decent recent record in the handicaps, and it all comes down to the over rating of average horses.

It seems right on the money for me.

 

[jono]

Just listened to the FFP on my commute. Blake and Delargy have a theory on why those towards the top of the weights appear to have a decent recent record in the handicaps, and it all comes down to the over rating of average horses.

It seems right on the money for me.

Just listened to this and think that's a really good take. Makes a lot of sense.

Usually not soon after the weights are out we get the expected cut off points for each race. has anyone seen any yet or have an idea?
(I tend to loosely go with no lower than the previous year as a starting point)

Here's the mark needed for each race over the last 5 years: (2017 / 2016 / 2015 / 2014 / 2013)

Ultima = 134 / 131 / 133 / 129 / 132
Close Brothers = 137 / 136 / 135 / 131 / 132

Coral Cup = 138 / 139 / 138 / 137 / 134
Fred Winter = 124 / 128 / 129 / 127 / 124

Pertemps = 137 / 135 / 135 / 135 / 135
Plate = 133 / 135 / 137 / 131 / 135
Kim Muir = 133 / 134 / 130 / 131 / 129

County = 134 / 138 / 134 / 132 / 132
Martin Pipe = 135 / 135 / 135 / 133 / 132
Grand Annual = 135 / 137 / 137 / 136 / 134

The only snippet i've seen so far is:

Ultima may be 138 (Phil Smith)
Close Brothers may be 140 (Phil Smith)
Kim Muir - Squout... 50/50 to get in so suggests around 134?

 

[charlie]

Just listened to this and think that's a really good take. Makes a lot of sense.

Usually not soon after the weights are out we get the expected cut off points for each race. has anyone seen any yet or have an idea?
(I tend to loosely go with no lower than the previous year as a starting point)

Here's the mark needed for each race over the last 5 years: (2017 / 2016 / 2015 / 2014 / 2013)

Ultima = 134 / 131 / 133 / 129 / 132
Close Brothers = 137 / 136 / 135 / 131 / 132

Coral Cup = 138 / 139 / 138 / 137 / 134
Fred Winter = 124 / 128 / 129 / 127 / 124

Pertemps = 137 / 135 / 135 / 135 / 135
Plate = 133 / 135 / 137 / 131 / 135
Kim Muir = 133 / 134 / 130 / 131 / 129

County = 134 / 138 / 134 / 132 / 132
Martin Pipe = 135 / 135 / 135 / 133 / 132
Grand Annual = 135 / 137 / 137 / 136 / 134

The only snippet i've seen so far is:

Ultima may be 138 (Phil Smith)
Close Brothers may be 140 (Phil Smith)
Kim Muir - Squout... 50/50 to get in so suggests around 134?

Brilliant.

All races covered here where they predict the cutoff - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loeCrEmF7zc

 

[Bigfish]

Cheers to all of you . This forum is the best.