General Chat

[darlojim]

I think anyone backing multiple runners in novice hurdles at this point needs their head examined.

Say that's bit harsh ffs

Horses could come out @ Punchestown in bumpers and piss up and odds slashed

We know horses are cut willy nilly throughout the summer and early Autumn as bit of word and rumours start going

The last few years plenty will have reaped the benefits of going early on nov hurdles - mainly the supreme/turners

And then you have people who make books, they'll definitely be well into it already, and rightly so.

 

[EnvoiAlien]

Agree. He's had 2 festival winners (same horse) from nearly 100 runners at last two festivals. Any other trainer would be absolutely slated.

There's a trainer in Lambourn who's had 2 winners across the last 3 festivals from about a quarter of what Gordons ran if not less, people say he's past it and is no good, funny old world isn't it.

 

[Quevega]

I think anyone backing multiple runners in novice hurdles at this point needs their head examined.

In the vast majority of people's diaries/portfolios whatever you want to call them, the number one source of pre festival losses in 90% of them will be arsing around in novice hurdles starting from a year out. And after all that, the four winners of them this year were something like 5/2, 11/1, 50/1 and 20/1 on the day. And 50/1 if you add the triumph in too.

First of all, they have to be good enough, and the vast majority that you bet on won't be, no matter how visually impressive they look when beating trees. And you probably won't find out if theyre good enough until next February when they run in a proper race for the first time, or maybe the festival itself. And on top of that, if you get lucky and they are good enough, they then have to run in the right race, which once again could be any of the three no matter how they look visually while beating trees.

I'd say whatever your "one point" stake is when betting on cheltenham, or whatever return you aim for on a cheltenham horse, youd be best off halving that figure when betting on novice hurdles until after Xmas at least, when if your lucky the races might actually start getting a bit competitive around the time of the lawlors at naas. That way your inevitable losses will be only half what they usually are, and a very good chance you won't have missed out on anything.

The majority of my own bets including novice hurdle horses before Xmas will be just small amounts on the exchange if I see anything interesting at huge prices, along with probably some miniscule stake multiples including a few of them.

Excellent stuff Ricci
Pretty much agree completely.
Even for book builders it's good advice as you're simply not going to beat SP this far out on all the horses you back now.
They'll either not run anyway, or be available at similar prices or bigger.
Admittedly you might end up on a 25-1 shot that goes off 2-1 and wins.
But by that time you've likely blown most of that on other horses that run and many non runners.
And that's even those that are more skilled at it than others.

With cash out not what it once was, it really is a mug's game punting in novice hurdles this far out.
Even if you're on the ball and don't blink much, it's hard to make good profits on these races in particular.

Hardest part though is getting dragged in as I told myself not to go there last season and still did in the three novices, although I was much more disciplined in the mares and triumph.
We'll see if this season I can be more disciplined.

 

[Lobos]

Agree completely guys.

This season I Stayed away from multiple bets in the Novice races and those I did go in on I bet later . Was very lucky getting both the Supreme and Turners winners and still beat SP by some margin.

 

[Hurricane fly]

Correct me if I'm wrong but I feel like Cash Out has only been a thing for 5-6 years.

Pretty sure when I joined this forum it was basically only 365

 

[FinalFurlong91]

At what point does Gordon Elliott winning a novice hurdle need to be seriously priced into these markets

No winner of the Supreme since Labaik in '17
No winner of the Turners since '20 with Envoi
Won the Bartlett with Stellar Story in '24 but before that was a long time
No winner of the Triumph since 2018 with Farclas

I know each horse is its own entity - but he's been unable to produce the goods when it comes to the Festival grade 1s taking into account the stock he gets

I feel like his festival results have fallen off dramatically since the dead horse incident

 

[BigChaang]

I think anyone backing multiple runners in novice hurdles at this point needs their head examined.

In the vast majority of people's diaries/portfolios whatever you want to call them, the number one source of pre festival losses in 90% of them will be arsing around in novice hurdles starting from a year out. And after all that, the four winners of them this year were something like 5/2, 11/1, 50/1 and 20/1 on the day. And 50/1 if you add the triumph in too.

First of all, they have to be good enough, and the vast majority that you bet on won't be, no matter how visually impressive they look when beating trees. And you probably won't find out if theyre good enough until next February when they run in a proper race for the first time, or maybe the festival itself. And on top of that, if you get lucky and they are good enough, they then have to run in the right race, which once again could be any of the three no matter how they look visually while beating trees.

I'd say whatever your "one point" stake is when betting on cheltenham, or whatever return you aim for on a cheltenham horse, youd be best off halving that figure when betting on novice hurdles until after Xmas at least, when if your lucky the races might actually start getting a bit competitive around the time of the lawlors at naas. That way your inevitable losses will be only half what they usually are, and a very good chance you won't have missed out on anything.

The majority of my own bets including novice hurdle horses before Xmas will be just small amounts on the exchange if I see anything interesting at huge prices, along with probably some miniscule stake multiples including a few of them.

I understand the point your'e making r.r.
But at the end of the day , if it's your hobby and you want to chance a few quid this far out , why not .. I imagine people are putting literally a couple of quid on these novices.
And if you aren't into the flat racing , then it's a little bit of fun and guesswork for a small outlay.
F.w.i.w , I follow the flat too , usually only bet on a saturday / sunday .
And what comes back , generally goes on a Cheltenham bet the following week. .

 

[Istabraq]

I think anyone backing multiple runners in novice hurdles at this point needs their head examined.

In the vast majority of people's diaries/portfolios whatever you want to call them, the number one source of pre festival losses in 90% of them will be arsing around in novice hurdles starting from a year out. And after all that, the four winners of them this year were something like 5/2, 11/1, 50/1 and 20/1 on the day. And 50/1 if you add the triumph in too.

First of all, they have to be good enough, and the vast majority that you bet on won't be, no matter how visually impressive they look when beating trees. And you probably won't find out if theyre good enough until next February when they run in a proper race for the first time, or maybe the festival itself. And on top of that, if you get lucky and they are good enough, they then have to run in the right race, which once again could be any of the three no matter how they look visually while beating trees.

I'd say whatever your "one point" stake is when betting on cheltenham, or whatever return you aim for on a cheltenham horse, youd be best off halving that figure when betting on novice hurdles until after Xmas at least, when if your lucky the races might actually start getting a bit competitive around the time of the lawlors at naas. That way your inevitable losses will be only half what they usually are, and a very good chance you won't have missed out on anything.

The majority of my own bets including novice hurdle horses before Xmas will be just small amounts on the exchange if I see anything interesting at huge prices, along with probably some miniscule stake multiples including a few of them.

Good post.
There can't be many in here who are worse at the novice hurdles than me, a new low point in managing to get Old Park Star in the Turners before a small cover (that didn't cover total race outlay) for the Supreme this year.
But as bad as the novice hurdles have been I am now firmly in the camp that the three races to avoid until entry stage are:
Bumper, Foxhunters and until the six day confirmations are in I'll be swerving the Triumph/Fred Winter....

 

[Lobos]

Jonbon not declared for Aintree

 

[Quevega]

Has Cobden been jocked off no drama this end ??

 

[Eggs]

Has Cobden been jocked off no drama this end ??

…..maybe thinking he won’t run;

‘He is obviously one of our best horses and he’ll have a great chance in the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle first time up to three miles. There’s no doubt he’ll get the trip bit I just think we would need a bit of rain for him to run. He’s a big horse who hits the ground hard even though he won on decent ground at Newbury and we’ll just have to see what the weather does.’

 

[Lobos]

Roasting hot today but cooler from Friday and Potentially rain all day on GN day which explains why Spillanes declared for National.

 

[Istabraq]

Roasting hot today but cooler from Friday and Potentially rain all day on GN day which explains why Spillanes declared for National.

Loading…

weather.metoffice.gov.uk

This suggests no @Lobos though met office have been wrong before…

 

[Eggs]

Roasting hot today but cooler from Friday and Potentially rain all day on GN day which explains why Spillanes declared for National.

….its really warm up here in Liverpool today, more like July than April.

 

[EnvoiAlien]

Roasting hot today but cooler from Friday and Potentially rain all day on GN day which explains why Spillanes declared for National.

While they're watering everyone I'd said the National course will get the lions share, being the race the world will be watching an all that..

 

[Lobos]

Loading…

weather.metoffice.gov.uk

This suggests no @Lobos though met office have been wrong before…

BBC forecast very different. Who knows eh ??

 

[Lobos]

While they're watering everyone I'd said the National course will get the lions share, being the race the world will be watching an all that..

Yep, you'd have thought so. Spillanes now jocked up for National as well. Big call tomorrow.

 

[Lobos]

….its really warm up here in Liverpool today, more like July than April.

Scorcher. Will dry out very quickly.

 

[archie]

Mildmay chase course 5.5, National course 5.7 on the stick. Other details on the BHA site:

Weather:
0.8mm rain Wed, 0.8mm Thurs, 0.2mm Fri, 0.4mm Sun
Forecast: Warm & dry with plenty of sunshine on Wednesday, 19c.
Cloudier with a chance of light showers Thurs & Fri (0-2mm);
some sunny spells. Mostly cloudy on Sat with occasional showers
(1-4mm).

Watering:
Watering (In Progress) - Watered last Thursday (8-10mm), Friday
(5-6mm), Sat morning (5-6mm), Mon (8-10mm), Tues (8-10mm). 6-8mm
being applied Wednesday to maintain through warm day.

 

[Kauto’s star]

At what point does Gordon Elliott winning a novice hurdle need to be seriously priced into these markets

No winner of the Supreme since Labaik in '17
No winner of the Turners since '20 with Envoi
Won the Bartlett with Stellar Story in '24 but before that was a long time
No winner of the Triumph since 2018 with Farclas

I know each horse is its own entity - but he's been unable to produce the goods when it comes to the Festival grade 1s taking into account the stock he gets

Agreed. Can’t trust him at the top level in March. It won’t stop me backing one of his, but I always want a significant price to get them on Board, for small stakes.