I think anyone backing multiple runners in novice hurdles at this point needs their head examined.
In the vast majority of people's diaries/portfolios whatever you want to call them, the number one source of pre festival losses in 90% of them will be arsing around in novice hurdles starting from a year out. And after all that, the four winners of them this year were something like 5/2, 11/1, 50/1 and 20/1 on the day. And 50/1 if you add the triumph in too.
First of all, they have to be good enough, and the vast majority that you bet on won't be, no matter how visually impressive they look when beating trees. And you probably won't find out if theyre good enough until next February when they run in a proper race for the first time, or maybe the festival itself. And on top of that, if you get lucky and they are good enough, they then have to run in the right race, which once again could be any of the three no matter how they look visually while beating trees.
I'd say whatever your "one point" stake is when betting on cheltenham, or whatever return you aim for on a cheltenham horse, youd be best off halving that figure when betting on novice hurdles until after Xmas at least, when if your lucky the races might actually start getting a bit competitive around the time of the lawlors at naas. That way your inevitable losses will be only half what they usually are, and a very good chance you won't have missed out on anything.
The majority of my own bets including novice hurdle horses before Xmas will be just small amounts on the exchange if I see anything interesting at huge prices, along with probably some miniscule stake multiples including a few of them.
