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General Chat

Black Dog said:
I think the argument that 5yos can't win an Arkle at level weights is a bit daft. If they're good enough of course they can. If Willie thinks they can,I'm pretty sure that they can. Majborough should've, Sir Gino could've and Lulamba might. I don't think it'll be his age that beats him.
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It's a big of a stupid stat, and one I'm happy to completely ignore.

How many have actually tried that 'had an actual winning chance'

I'd say wouldnt be too many
 
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darlojim said:
It's a big of a stupid stat, and one I'm happy to completely ignore.

How many have actually tried that 'had an actual winning chance'

I'd say wouldnt be too many
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Yeah, as long as a horse has proved they can jump well enough, would not worry me if he or she was a 5 year old.
 
darlojim said:
It's a big of a stupid stat, and one I'm happy to completely ignore.

How many have actually tried that 'had an actual winning chance'

I'd say wouldnt be too many
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We went through all this shit last year and not many of serious note had even tried for years.
Majborough then went and prolonged the misery of us having to listen to the subject discussed again for another year.
Pray for Lulamba 🙏
 
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Carnage at Taunton said:
No they did’nt, but I’d be confident they know SG would have won the Arkle if he had run instead of Jango, or beaten him if both ran.
No way of knowing for sure though.
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They know - but there is no way of knowing !
Brilliant 👏:ROFLMAO:
 
Carnage at Taunton said:
Well I can’t read their minds!!
I think you know what I mean……if not, never mind.
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:LOL: You'll never know if I know what you mean, and neither will I.

The joke was, how can they know ? if there is no way of knowing !
Obviously then it leads to the question, how can you know that they knew ?
Which you've admitted is not possible as you've confessed to not being able to read minds.
 
Quevega said:
:LOL: You'll never know if I know what you mean, and neither will I.

The joke was, how can they know ? if there is no way of knowing !
Obviously then it leads to the question, how can you know that they knew ?
Which you've admitted is not possible as you've confessed to not being able to read minds.
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I said I would be confident they would know SG would beat Jango, that’s not definite though, it’s an opinion.

We would never know for sure what would have happened in the race though, because SG never ran in the race.
 
Carnage at Taunton said:
I said I would be confident they would know SG would beat Jango, that’s not definite though, it’s an opinion.
We would never know for sure though, because SG never ran in the race.
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Carnage at Taunton said:
I said I would be confident they would think SG would beat Jango, that’s not definite though, it’s an opinion.
We would never know for sure though, because SG never ran in the race.
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Made a small amendment 😊 👍 👊
 
Hope the rest of you enjoyed that ? :LOL:
Epistemology vs Ontology
 
darlojim said:
It's a big of a stupid stat, and one I'm happy to completely ignore.

How many have actually tried that 'had an actual winning chance'

I'd say wouldnt be too many
Click to expand...
I’m not one to blindly follow stats. I guess you need to look behind them to see if there is an explanation. I have always thought that this 5 year old one is down to an element of immaturity.

Anyway you ask how many have tried? I have gone back 10 years and the answer is 7 (3 in one year I.e. 2022). Most of the races have low numbers of runners but even so that is I guess not many have tried.

Did they have an actual chance of winning ? Well one was odds on (1/2 Majborough). The other 6 included four 2nd favs. So presumably they were thought to have a winning chance.
 
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Killiney said:
I’m not one to blindly follow stats. I guess you need to look behind them to see if there is an explanation. I have always thought that this 5 year old one is down to an element of immaturity.

Anyway you ask how many have tried? I have gone back 10 years and the answer is 7 (3 in one year I.e. 2022). Most of the races have low numbers of runners but even so that is I guess not many have tried.

Did they have an actual chance of winning ? Well one was odds on (1/2 Majborough). The other 6 included four 2nd favs. So presumably they were thought to have a winning chance.
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Since the weight allowance was done away with there have been twelve 5yo runners in the Arkle. Their expected wins (based on BSP) is 2 (Majborough contributing 0.6 of this). From the start of the century there were a further 18 runners, two of whom (Well Chief and Voy Por Ustedes) won the Arkle although they notionally would not have done without the weight allowance. This means that at level weights there have been thirty 5yo runners who would not have won at level weights against an expected wins total (based on market price) of three wins. As mentioned previously though, if you go back one more year to 1999 then Flagship Uberalles (and second placed Tresor De Mai) would have won the Arkle even at level weights. My take on it is that it is possible to win as a 5yo but its not an easy task (Flagship Uberalles went on to win a QMCC and both Well Chief and VPU who were top class needed the allowance to win) and that needs to be factored into the price.

For those that love the detail:

2025 Majborough (BSP 1.68)
2022 Riviere D'etel (4.9)
2022 Haut En Couleurs (8.0)
2022 Saint Sam (14.37)
2021 Allmankind (6.87)
2020 Fakir Doudairies (4.70)
2018 Saint Calvados (3.85)
2015 Clarcam (30.81)
2013 His Excellency (200.0)
2009 Tatenen (5.3)
2008 Kruguyrova (10.0)
2008 Marodima (36.6)

Weight Allowance
2007 Fair Along (ISP 4.33)
2007 Twist Magic (13.0)
2007 Jack The Giant (15.0)
2007 Tidal Fury (17.0)
2007 Good Spirit (21.0)
2006 Voy Por Ustedes (6.0)
2005 My Will (13.0)
2005 Made In Japan (17.0)
2005 Mondul (101.0)
2005 Mambo Des Mottes (101.0)
2004 Well Chief (10.0)
2004 Le Duc (26.0)
2004 Royaleety (34.0)
2003 Le Roi Miguel (13.0)
2002 Armaturk (9.0)
2002 Kadarann (17.0)
2002 Jardin De Beaulieu (101.0)
2000 Frozen Groom (11.0)
 
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….notice Hills have cut J’arrive De Lest to 8-1 for XC ahead of his run today, still 16-1 365.
 
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