General Chat

[Imperial Commander]

So from 30 points invested, returns of 21 + 21 + 17 = 59.

I'd be taking that every day of the week!

 

[Odin]

So from 30 points invested, returns of 21 + 21 + 17 = 59.

I'd be taking that every day of the week!

The age old "Have you got the stones (and bank roll) to have so many losers but believe that the big winner is coming?" :cower::highly_amused:

 

[BigChaang]

These lads must be cracked out of their heads to be picking handicaps in Aug/Sept/Oct.
The thought of finding the Kim Muir winner right now just makes me laugh....

I was Guilty of doing this too , when i started A/P Betting for the Festival.
Golden Rule from about 5 years ago is ..... WAIT .. for N.R.N.B. .
....................................................................
At least that way , you can take a swing if your'e confident , knowing it's Money Back if a N.R.. :surprise: .

 

[Quevega]

3 winners from 30 selections ??

Better than 3 from 3000 though

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I was Guilty of doing this too , when i started A/P Betting for the Festival.
Golden Rule from about 5 years ago is ..... WAIT .. for N.R.N.B. .
....................................................................
At least that way , you can take a swing if your'e confident , knowing it's Money Back if a N.R.. :surprise: .

Life is all about learning and getting better, some of us have been doing this 35 years and still get it repeatedly wrong !
I just can't see the upside in looking at handicaps yet, it's hard enough working our which horses will be good enough for the G1s and of those which race they'll go for, predicting a horses mark 5 months out ? Best of luck....

 

[Lobos]

So from 30 points invested, returns of 21 + 21 + 17 = 59.

I'd be taking that every day of the week!

Watching 27 losers out of 30 stood in a cold stand with an £8 pint........ummmmmmm. No thanks.

 

[Imperial Commander]

Watching 27 losers out of 30 stood in a cold stand with an £8 pint........ummmmmmm. No thanks.

Each to their own I guess.

But for a book builder with several bets in each race to get returns of double those of stakes, repeated over 28 races through the week - Yes please! :encouragement:

 

[Exar Essay]

Watching 27 losers out of 30 stood in a cold stand with an £8 pint........ummmmmmm. No thanks.

I guess your metric is slightly different which is fair enough. But surely their primary objective as a tipping podcast is to deliver a profitable festival? Which they did. I doubt many on here made 100%+ ROI? They would've broken even by the third race of the Tuesday too so would hardly have been hanging around for the plot job in the Pipe to save their festival.

Their approach is to tip big odds winners as opposed to favs too.

If they'd have tipped up say 8 favs and broken even, that would be a worse festival even though your week would've been punctuated more frequently with wins.

 

[Quevega]

Surely their primary job as a tipping podcast is to deliver a profitable festival? Which they did. I doubt many on here made 100%+ ROI? They would've broken even by the third race of the Tuesday too so would hardly have been hanging around for the plot job in the Pipe to save their festival.

Their approach is to tip big odds winners as opposed to favs too.

If they'd have tipped up say 8 favs and broken even, that would be a worse festival even though your week would've been punctuated more frequently with wins.

Stop explaining things to him.:loyal:
Let him either work it out for himself.
Or simply move on to the next thing (much more likely) :highly_amused::love_heart:

 

[Lobos]

Each to their own I guess.

But for a book builder with several bets in each race to get returns of double those of stakes, repeated over 28 races through the week - Yes please! :encouragement:

As you say, each to their own and they are professional gamblers so just in it for the money as opposed to the thrill.

 

[Exar Essay]

Stop explaining things to him.:loyal:
Let him either work it out for himself.
Or simply move on to the next thing (much more likely) :highly_amused::love_heart:

Ha. I give these podcasts a hard time (in my own head - I'm not a YouTube commenter!) so thought I'd give credit where it seemed due.

 

[Quevega]

Ha. I give these podcasts a hard time (in my own head - I'm not a YouTube commenter!) so thought I'd give credit where it seemed due.

You do right.
They actually did an excellent job.
Just takes some people a long time to realise why.:sorrow:

 

[Lobos]

Stop explaining things to him.:loyal:
Let him either work it out for himself.
Or simply move on to the next thing (much more likely) :highly_amused::love_heart:

Nothing to explain Q. Just prefer watching my bets win during the week over final profit. Both would be nice of course. But give me 14 winners out of 28 and be level than 3 winners from 28 and in profit every time. The latter would be a horrible weeks racing in my book. :eagerness:

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

Watching 27 losers out of 30 stood in a cold stand with an £8 pint........ummmmmmm. No thanks.

Strictly speaking they selected 2 winners between them because two of them had Chianti Classico @ 20/1 in the Ultima​. But. Again it is a very entertaining show and there is lots of good data. But my guess is under the same circumstances most of us would pick more than two winners from 30 bets through the week.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Strictly speaking they selected 2 winners between them because two of them had Chianti Classico @ 20/1 in the Ultima​. But. Again it is a very entertaining show and there is lots of good data. But my guess is under the same circumstances most of us would pick more than two winners from 30 bets through the week.

At those prices?

 

[Wayward Lad]

To be fair, from level stakes, The Jumps Show has returned a 103% ROI. Which is pretty good.

How do you come to 103% ROI ?

I agree you end up in front and that’s the point you are making, but would like to understand the calc?

 

[Lobos]

To be fair, looking back at Kev's 'One Race, One Horse' thread we all struggled like hell to pick any winners from one early selection. I'll take it all back. I managed just 2 winners.....:glee:

 

[Exar Essay]

How do you come to 103% ROI ?

I agree you end up in front and that’s the point you are making, but would like to understand the calc?

30pts placed.

Chianti Classico (Jake) - 21pts returned
Chianti Classico (Dan) - 21pts returned
Absurde - 17pts returned
Staffordshire Knot (Ballymore - NR) - 1pt returned
Giovinco (Ultima - NR) - 1pt returned
All others - Losers

61pts returned and 31pts profit.

31/30 = 103%

 

[Quevega]

To be fair, looking back at Kev's 'One Race, One Horse' thread we all struggled like hell to pick any winners from one early selection. I'll take it all back. I managed just 2 winners.....:glee:

Awesome
Wondered when it’d click

 

[Wayward Lad]

30pts placed.

Chianti Classico (Jake) - 21pts returned
Chianti Classico (Dan) - 21pts returned
Absurde - 17pts returned
Staffordshire Knot (Ballymore - NR) - 1pt returned
Giovinco (Ultima - NR) - 1pt returned
All others - Losers

61pts returned and 31pts profit.

31/30 = 103%

Thanks Exar :tears_of_joy:


I would look at it another way such as;

Really only 29 selections as Chianti picked twice and therefore also really only 2 winners and 2 non runners, unless Chianti backed twice.

Therefore 29 points staked and 40 points returned = 11 points profit = 37.9% ROI

Even looking at it this way it’s a great return and makes your point that being successful picking such large priced winners does cover a lot of losers and you only need a couple of them to finish in front at Cheltenham ! :cheerful: