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Exar Essay said:
So King of Kingsfield gets an RPR of 122. That seems quite important given the stats about recent Champion Bumper winners having a debut RPR at 120+
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Yeah thats important, im a little bit dissapointed in how highly i regard that stat aswell! Because i didnt like the run from KOK to be honest
 
Saxon Warrior had a thread with some stats on past winners and debut RPR ratings, but I can’t dig it out. Anyone know where it can be found?
 
darlojim said:
Does ATR tracker notify on initial entries or just declarations?
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Not A.T.R Jim , but i use the Racing T.V Tracker and it gives you all initial entry's and declarations .
not sure if you can alter the settings ??. I wouldn't know how to anyway .. :biggrin-new:.
 
Mighty said:
Saxon Warrior had a thread with some stats on past winners and debut RPR ratings, but I can’t dig it out. Anyone know where it can be found?
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Was it not in his 2022 diary? Will probably take a bit of a search to get the right page number to be fair
 
BigChaang said:
Not A.T.R Jim , but i use the Racing T.V Tracker and it gives you all initial entry's and declarations .
not sure if you can alter the settings ??. I wouldn't know how to anyway .. :biggrin-new:.
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Thanks BC! Does it give the entries out promptly? As in ASAP or a few hours after haha? Trying to decide which tracker to go for
 
Mighty said:
Saxon Warrior had a thread with some stats on past winners and debut RPR ratings, but I can’t dig it out. Anyone know where it can be found?
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https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat-...104#post361104

CHAMPION BUMPER STATS just prior to the 2022 Festival

I'm thinking it may be worthwhile completing a Thread in the Members Section on all the races I analysed in this way.

Updating with 2022 winners and placed horses.

Must be 14 or 15 races I did - between pages 105 and around 120 in my Diary

If anyone likes that idea

Would help to identify potential debut performances this next month or two that equate to the standard to win or compete in the Grade 1 races.
 
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Exar Essay said:
So King of Kingsfield gets an RPR of 122. That seems quite important given the stats about recent Champion Bumper winners having a debut RPR at 120+
Click to expand...

I watched his race back again and he did travel very well and was in cruise mode approaching the last 2f. When asked for his effort the response was good but he didn't put as much daylight between himself and the placed horses as you thought he would. That said, the ground was very testing especially being the final race of the day so it's not that surprising he didn't scoot away from them. I'd like to see him on better ground as I think he'd look even smarter.
 
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Saxon Warrior said:
I'm thinking it may be worthwhile completing a Thread in the Members Section on all the races I analysed in this way.

Updating with 2022 winners and placed horses.
Click to expand...

Yes! This is exactly what I was recalling. I got through dozens of pages of your diary the other night looking for RPRs post first run looking for a comparison and I couldn’t find it, so thanks for sharing the link.

I can’t emphasise how useful this was last year - genuinely one of the best pieces of research on the forum. Definitely one for the members section though!
 
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darlojim said:
Thanks BC! Does it give the entries out promptly? As in ASAP or a few hours after haha? Trying to decide which tracker to go for
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I'm not sure , but i think they are prompt , this time last week i had about 12 and then every day a load more , 60 in there at the mo.
maybe someone here knows , do they have some link to the B.H.A ??., get the Irish Entries too.
In fact you get the entries , declarations and results..
 
Exar Essay said:
So King of Kingsfield gets an RPR of 122. That seems quite important given the stats about recent Champion Bumper winners having a debut RPR at 120+
Click to expand...

Afraid it’s too low. Place prospects at best.

That first RPR is crucial and it’s gotta be in the high 120s.
 
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nortonscoin200 said:
Afraid it’s too low. Place prospects at best.

That first RPR is crucial and it’s gotta be in the high 120s.
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Think the ground might have had some say in that Norton's. His next run will be more informative.
 
A random Monday night thought but last year the UK won the opening day 4-3 on what was declared Good to Soft but results certainly suggested it was significantly more towards Good. It was then 7-7 on Soft or worse before a 7-0 rout on Gold Cup day on G/S.

Is there any chance the clerk will be leant on to try and get the ground closer to good throughout the 4 days in order to be able to give a potential advantage to UK horses?

Officially it will no doubt be Good to Soft but could the reality be different?
 
Exar Essay said:
So King of Kingsfield gets an RPR of 122. That seems quite important given the stats about recent Champion Bumper winners having a debut RPR at 120+
Click to expand...
Giving the owner’s the higher the rating the more unlikely it is that they will run him at Cheltenham imo
It is no secret that Eddie O’Leary doesn’t like his promising young horses running in it
Samcro is an example of where they could of won it but held him back
Even if he showed a lot more on his second run on better ground it would take some convincing by Gordon to let him take his chance
 
Hurricane fly said:
A random Monday night thought but last year the UK won the opening day 4-3 on what was declared Good to Soft but results certainly suggested it was significantly more towards Good. It was then 7-7 on Soft or worse before a 7-0 rout on Gold Cup day on G/S.

Is there any chance the clerk will be leant on to try and get the ground closer to good throughout the 4 days in order to be able to give a potential advantage to UK horses?

Officially it will no doubt be Good to Soft but could the reality be different?
Click to expand...

Last year was just a cock up wasn’t it ?
Everyone could see the Tue night/Wed forecast but he turned the taps on anyway
That said, the way the ground cup up is said to be a big reason why they decided against extending to five days, so it served a purpose !
Ultimately ground has to be safe and there’s a general feeling the faster the surface the less safe NH racing is, not convinced everyone subscribes to that view but it appeases most but I’m sure their primary consideration will be horse wellbeing, UK performance/chances won’t even register…
 
Lobos said:
Think the ground might have had some say in that Norton's. His next run will be more informative.
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Yes, but the benchmark has been set. And I can't see Willie complaining about dry ground across Ireland. It has been a very wet autumn.

While the RPR rule is important and an excellent starting point, it gives us 2-3 to consider, it is not sacrosanct.
 
Upping The Anti back tonight . 6-00 i believe.
 
Putting 2 and 2 together, potentially Shoot First could be Gav Lynchs first tip.
 
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