OBR thinks that it'll go the way I feared it would. (More restrictions and less margins (wanky prices) in favour of the consumer, no incentives and bonuses etc)
However, I can see the potential for it being a positive, it will depend on how the bookmakers want to tackle the issue.
Do they want to increase turnover on the lower taxed product ?? - You'd think yes. And this should help drive competition on this product between rival bookmakers (you'd think)
But as has been the case for years now - it's the profit (without risk) that will drive the effort more than the turnover, although they are obviously linked heavily.
I think if the Gambling Commission were any good they would see the need for some regulating on the bookmakers that would help both party's in the long term as IMO.
The bookmakers have had a policy for a while now where they clearly felt that it didn't matter if they were catching smaller fish in their net, as this was a small price to pay for the overall goal.
If the regulator made efforts to protect the smaller fish (minimum liability limits) I actually think these smaller fish would be profitable for bookmakers long term anyhow. And they could also make an effort to allow some of the bigger fish to play, within reason.
There must be many punters that will lose over the long term (at different rates) that have started betting less or packed it in altogether due to being restricted. There simply has to be because more than half the accounts that are restricted are not profitable accounts.