General Chat

[Magpie]

Watched that a few times, it’s a great watch Yosser.

 

[Magpie]

Can’t remember seeing Paul Nicholls having such a poor return at Chepstow. All ran well enough, just didn’t seem to get home. Wonder if the plan is to peak at a different time of year?

Terrible to see Cuthbert Dibble get that awful injury. Such a promising future. Trainer in great form, but that will be small comfort tonight.

 

[DenmanSacre]

Awful viewing with Cuthbert Dibble. Was jumping well out front and such an unfortunate accident. RIP.

Nicholls said his string will be ready in 2-3 weeks, despite him saying before the meet they were fit enough to win. I think he only had Insurrection who came close to winning.

 

[Yosser]

Some early entries for this week.

Wednesday - Punchestown

2.10 - 2m Maiden Hurdle - Romeo Coolio
4.55 - 2m Beginners Chase - Birdie Or Bust, Sa Majeste
5.30 - Bumper - Classical Creek, Whinney Hill

Thursday - Thurles

5.05 - Bumper - Classical Creek, Whinney Hill

Carlisle - 2.32 - 2m 1f Novices' Hurdle - Wade Out

Friday - Uttoxeter

2.10 - 1m 7f Novices' Hurdle - Wade Out

 

[Lobos]

Likely to see Classical Creek then looking at that. Could be a big mover should he win well.

 

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Gonna be some resource this... And then some job trying to put it all together!

Good luck - would be great to hear have you've incorporated it all when you're done (and how successful you think you've been with it compared to what you were hoping)

The MKII version including Odin's trends and stats is already in the offing!

 

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Can’t remember seeing Paul Nicholls having such a poor return at Chepstow. All ran well enough, just didn’t seem to get home. Wonder if the plan is to peak at a different time of year?

Terrible to see Cuthbert Dibble get that awful injury. Such a promising future. Trainer in great form, but that will be small comfort tonight.

In his 'Horses in Training' book he talked about targeting the meeting with several of his decent horses. I think he will be disappointed deep down.

 

[DeeBee]

What date are we likely to see Mullins stable tour out?

 

[Exar Essay]

What date are we likely to see Mullins stable tour out?

Closutton press day is this week apparently. So I’d expect something later this week or early next week.

 

[Yosser]

Closutton press day is this week apparently. So I’d expect something later this week or early next week.

Just keep an eye on Oddschecker, when you see a sea of blue for random horses, you know it's imminent :excitement::excitement:

 

[Lobos]

Closutton press day is this week apparently. So I’d expect something later this week or early next week.

Punters and Bookies both crapping themselves in anticipation.....

 

[Exar Essay]

Romeo Coolio not declared at Punchestown. Classical Creek neither. Thursdays card at Thurles has been abandoned.

 

[Lobos]

Romeo Coolio not declared at Punchestown. Classical Creek neither. Thursdays card at Thurles has been abandoned.

Ahhh well, it's the thought that counts...:drunk:

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Romeo Coolio not declared at Punchestown. Classical Creek neither. Thursdays card at Thurles has been abandoned.

I always thought Romeo would be declared for Down Royal to be honest. Not long until them entries are out.

 

[Run4Home]

There isn't enough rain in the ground to run good horses in Ireland yet, you won't see any good ones for awhile yet from the big 2 stables.
Romeo target always been the 2m DR race.

 

[BigChaang]

Romeo Coolio not declared at Punchestown. Classical Creek neither. Thursdays card at Thurles has been abandoned.

I was at Thurles last Thursday with some Mates , Only Flat Meeting they have there apparently .
and there were a few non runners that day due to the going ..

 

[Wayward Lad]

And the hits keep coming……for UK Horse Racing

I apologise now to those who would rather not talk about such matters, as it’s negative and doom mongering, but folks its reality now and the reason for my post is a message for my fellow acolytes of this forum to enjoy racing and it’s foibles as it’s now, in its current format, as I can only see it getting a lot worse on many levels.

The ‘hit’ I mention above is the news of potential massive tax hikes under the new government with their Oct Budget (purposefully leaked to soften the blow?)……..National Hunt racing is my passion and it is seriously under treat in its current format in my opinion and many others recently quoted within the sport.

The leaked intel suggests massive increases in taxation for bookmakers on sports bets (inc horse racing) and online business, looking to take an estimated £3b out of the bookmakers gross profits. As a result yesterday the major bookmakers share prices lost between 5% and 10% (massive numbers for the value of these big amalgamated companies). Remember many of these companies are now multi national and no longer rely completely on UK business.

When these big companies announce their annual accounts and we all curse when we hear about their massive profits, how much do you think is delivered by UK Horse Racing ? I suspect much less than you think and that’s why I think the business model of horse racing is seriously under treat if these tax increases go through.

Why do I think this ? Because so much has changed over the last 10 to 20 years which has masked the true profitability of horse racing in the Uk. As the Government, the Racetracks and the Levy have wanted more to support horse racing, then the product has showed continued decline in both Turnover and Margin. The bookmakers profitability growth has come from other products inc numbers betting, FOBTs for a few years (now more fruit machines due to the stake reduction legislation) and FOOTBALL. Think about how many Football coupons there were in betting shops 10 years ago to now, how many Football markets have been created…look at the marketing in the front window of betting shops, it’s all Football as it’s now the key product to encourage the young bettor. No longer is Horse Racing the key product.

Financial disclosure has sped the turnover decline trend up with Turnover of UK Horse racing declining by 20% over the last two years alone ! - I suspect the trend has been about an annual 5% for the previous 8 years or so.

Then there is margin. I estimate that the average margin bookmakers make out of Horse Racing is around 10% with the comparison of Football betting delivering double that margin…..yes double.

Then we come to the cost of providing the opportunity to bet on the product. Bookmakers pay around £100m per year on Levy from horse racing and an additional, £100m in media rights to racecourses. This is separate to the tax they pay to the government. The levy is based around gross profits at the moment with some wanting it to go back to being turnover based (either way it’s going to decline and quickly in total amount of money available based upon the decline in horse race betting) at the moment the amount given out by the Levy has been maintained at around the £100m by ‘reserves’ whatever they are but they cannot be available for ever ! So the Levy payments to racecourses will reduce and in turn prize money.

My prognosis is that IF the bookmakers are hit with massive tax rises then the £100m media rights payment will be one of the first things that is challenged, at the same time bookmakers sponsorship of major races will reduce as contracts come up for renewal and free bets and concessions will dry up (some already are). They will have to pay the Levy and the Tax, but other costs are technically voluntary. I estimate that sponsorship combined is around another £20m a year. Look at how many of the big races are now sponsored by bookmakers, where the tracks have been unable to get other sponsors ? Whether we like it or not, business brands don’t think it’s good business to sponsor horse racing.

Bookmakers pay £100m in media payments to show horse racing on line and in betting shops. Betting shops that have reduced in number significantly over the years with the trend increasing. (14k betting shops in 1973, just over 8k 10 years ago and just over 6k now). With the stakes limit on FOBT’s and Financial Disclosure then this will continue in my opinion at a faster rate. Shops may stay open for a while until their lease runs out as they lose less in trading than remaining dormant.

Bookmakers then pay £100m in Levy to be able to bet on horse racing.

Now consider what they pay to be able to bet on Football. No Levy payment and no media rights payments. Only a small fee per shop (£300?) and online to the governing body of Football (total less than £5m) Then consider what level of turnover/profit Football generates verses Horse Racing ? It used to be maybe only 5% of a betting shops turnover, yet now I would suggest it is over 50%. I would also hazard a guess that because the margin is so much higher than horse racing that most betting shops will be showing a higher profit on Football than horse racing. So why would you want to pay £200m for the right to accept a bet and show horse racing ?

What I see coming over the next few years if these tax rises happen is;

- a faster rate in prize money reduction (as an example the Cesarewitch prize money has reduced from £500k to £175k in less than 5 years)
- more bookmakers challenging the media rights payments with some meetings not being streamed and some not priced etc (which has happened already thus year)
- sponsorship not being renewed when contact ends
- tighter margins on horse racing
- much less, if any, concessions and free bets
- racecourse closures similar to what happened to greyhound racing
- less races

Don’t be fooled into thinking the large amount of money being spent at Tattersalls last week is a barometer of racing’s health, as it’s the top end of the market and in no way represents the majority of owners within the industry. How many of these owners do it to support their passion and hobby and not as a business? - I suspect many.

Unfortunately the large prices paid at Tattersalls couldn’t have come at a worse time as any arguments against significant tax rises hurting potentially the horse racing industry and not just bookmakers as the Government intend, may fall on deaf ears.


My message is enjoy what we have now and enjoy it for as long as it lasts !

ps….i do have some solutions to the headwind problems coming racings way and will happily detail these if anyone’s interested (most won’t happen due to racings divided factions) but for now i need to have a few beers to sincerely hope I am wrong on my forecast for the sport which is my passion.

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

Nicky Henderson Stable Tour suggests Sir Gino might stay hurdling. B365 immediately cut Ballyburn (5/2 to 9/4), Firefox (8/1 to 6/1) and Slade Steel (12/1 to 8/1) for the Arkle. Doesn't take much to move a market does it.

 

[Lobos]

Nicky Henderson Stable Tour suggests Sir Gino might stay hurdling. B365 immediately cut Ballyburn (5/2 to 9/4), Firefox (8/1 to 6/1) and Slade Steel (12/1 to 8/1) for the Arkle. Doesn't take much to move a market does it.

Seeing as he said that last season it certainly doesn't!

 

[somer1]

Could someone be a love and cut and paste the 25 most exciting jumps horses from the racing post please?