Some food for thought on Salvador Ziggy's run yesterday. There was a general feeling if he'd won yesterday he would have to be considered a Brown Advisory horse rather than a NH Chase horse.
So if Desertmore House hadn't got in yesterday Ziggy would have been regarded as though he's won like a Brown Advisory horse?! However, Elliott advised Brassil to travel because he was pulling one of his own, and if he hadn't Desertmore House would have been stood in his box and not in the race. A great example of how big things can sometimes hinge on small decisions.
Salvador Ziggy probably now gets 3-5lbs instead of 7-8lbs now, and whichever way round he is still the same horse. And whilst in graded races that doesn't matter, in handicaps it does. But it does matter from a punting assessment in a graded race. If Ziggy had a 158 (OR or RPR) rating against at best horses that hit the low 150's he'll be regarded as a good thing. But off 153, with perhaps 2 or 3 horses in the race off similar marks, is he still a good thing? What is he a 153 horse or a 158 horse?
The answer is the same horse would win whatever the ratings say, and it's our job to figure it out. This is essentially a good example of why I believe learning the ability to rate horses yourself, alongside form study and race reading are vital. While the handicappers tend to be one-dimensional in their approach, being able to differentiate by creating your own general ratings and under the specific conditions, and then comparing them to the one given by the OR's and RPR's is a significant advantage.
For what it's worth, I think he's run to a much higher level than the rating the handicapper is likely to give him. I think he'll get 153, but I rate that run at 156. For context, since the race was upgraded to a Grade 2, only Gaillard du Mesnil has achieved that figure beforehand, as a very experienced second season Willie Mullins horse, that had previously been contesting G1 novice chases. Ziggy is already there and has time to improve on it. So for me something needs to come out of the woodwork and be a Grade 1 horse in disguise to beat him. So, in my opinion with what we know now, and despite being cut to 8/1, his price is still one of the most generous prices in all of the Festival antepost markets.
