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Fulke Walwyn KIM MUIR Challenge Cup Amateur Riders Handicap

Istabraq said:
I wouldn't be concerned about any of the NRNB firms clipping him RC, there's no risk punters backing NRNB so could well be people with strong Kim Muir positions just covering themselves.
Also, and this won't apply to many, but where I am restricted on singles I have been using surefire non runners (NRNB) in doubles to boost the amount I can get on, I doubt this is responsible for any price move but it may make the traders look at overall liabilities...
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To clarify Ista the bookies that have cut are not NRNB including 365 who have cut twice and don’t think are offering cash out on the handicaps
 
A quick run through the entries this afternoon, and a few video replays later, and I have added

SHANTOU FLYER 20/1 (NRNB)
KIM MUIR

His form is well known at the Festival, but he is an 11 year-old, and the last horse as old (in fact - older) to win the Kim Muir was 6 years ago, called

THE PACKAGE

His form was also very good at Cheltenham, and at the Festival, where he had run four times in the Ultima (Form Figures 24P3) before moving up a furlong to the Kim Muir at the grand old age of 12, having dropped to a rating of 137, and he destroyed the Kim Muir field of 2015 by 12 lengths.

He recorded his best RPR ever in winning that race aged 12, which added to the fact that two of his previous three best RPR's were both in Ultima's at the Cheltenham Festival.

Back to SHANTOU FLYER.

He is a year younger than The Package was and also has had 4 runs at the Festival, in the Ultima (2) and the Foxhunters (2), with form-figures of F223, and placed at the last three Festivals.

A ban on Amateurs has played into Shantou Flyer's hands as he is no longer allowed to be ridden by his owner, David Maxwell, and can step out of the Hunter Chase and into Handicap company again.

He moved to Paul Nicholls stable a month ago, and has had two quick runs, a pipe-opener in 4th behind Time To Get Up (new joint favourite for the Kim Muir) when weighted 7lb higher.

He then ran at the weekend at Wincanton and improved a lot for his seasonal debut when finishing a close 2nd, to an improver, giving him a stone.

On both occasions he has been ridden by former-conditional-turned amateur-turned-back-to-conditional, Angus Cheleda who has given up his amateur status last month to continue riding this season.

He is a 7lb claimer, and to my mind the horses plan changed from Hunter Chase to Kim Muir, when the horse moved to Paul and his new jockey turned conditional at exactly the same time.

Angus has 7 winners from 22 runners for his trainer Paul Nicholls this season, and his star is rising.

He can ride Shantou Flyer again at Cheltenham (also rode him to win a P2P before) and take 7lb off his back, with a rating of 141, this would reduce his weight to that of a 134 rating.

Given that Shantou Flyer's form at Cheltenham in chases is 1F1422223 I think he is a nailing bet to be placed in the Kim Muir, and maybe even win it to mirror The Package's finale at the Festival at a grand old age by winning at his 5th Festival, having placed 3 times previously.

Shantou Flyer's 5 top RPR's are all Handicap Chases at Cheltenham, and his best RPR of 162 (off a 152 rating) was in the Ultima Handicap, beaten a head by Coo Star Sivola.

I'm hoping there is still a spring in his step, that looked to be the case last weekend, and he wouldnt need to hit his very best to win from a rating of 134 (141-7lb claim).
 
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Saxon Warrior said:
A quick run through the entries this afternoon, and a few video replays later, and I have added

SHANTOU FLYER 20/1 (NRNB)
KIM MUIR

His form is well known at the Festival, but he is an 11 year-old, and the last horse as old (in fact - older) to win the Kim Muir was 6 years ago, called

THE PACKAGE

His form was also very good at Cheltenham, and at the Festival, where he had run four times in the Ultima (Form Figures 24P3) before moving up a furlon to the Kim Muir at the grand old age of 12, having dropped to a rating of 137, and he destrpyed the Kim Muir field of 2015 by 12 lengths.

He recorded his best RPR ever in winnign that race aged 12, which added to the fact that two of his previous three best RPR's were in the Ultima at the Cheltenham Festival.

Back to SHANTOU FLYER.

He is a year younger than The Package was and also has had 4 runs at the Festival, in the Ultima 92) and the Foxhunters (2), with form-figures of F223, placed at the last three Festivals.

A ban on Amateurs has played into Shantou Flyer's hands as he is no longer allowed to be ridden by his owner, David Maxwell, and can step out of the Hunter Chase and into Handicap company again.

He moved to Paul Nicholls stable a month ago, and has had two quick runs, a pipe-opener in 4th behind Time To Get Up (new joint favourite for the Kim Muir) when weighted 7lb higher.

He then ran at the weekend at Wincanton and improved a lot for his seasonal debut when finishing a close 2nd, to an improver, giving him a stone.

On both occasions he has been ridden by former-conditional-turned amateur-turned-back-to-conditional, Angus Cheleda who has given up his amateur status last month to continue riding this season.

He is a 7lb claimer, and to my mind the horses plan changed from Hunter Chase to Kim Muir, when the horse moved to Paul and his new jockey turned conditional at exactly the same time.

Angus has 7 winners from 22 runners for his trainer Paul Nicholls this season, and his star is rising.

He can ride Shantou Flyer again at Cheltenham (also rode him to win a P2P before) and take 7lb off his back, with a rating of 141, this would reduce his weight to that of a 134 rating.

Given that Shantou Flyer's form at Cheltenham in chases is 1F1422223 I think he is a nailing bet to be placed in the Kim Muir, and maybe even win it to mirror The Package's finale at the Festival at a grand old age by winning at his 5th Festival, having placed 3 times previously.

Shantou Flyer's 5 top RPR's are all Handicap Chases at Cheltenham, and his best RPR of 162 (off a 152 rating) was in the Ultima Handicap, beaten a head by Coo Star Sivola.

I'm hoping there is still a spring in his step, that looked to be the case last weekend, and he wouldnt need to hit his very best to win from a rating of 134 (141-7lb claim).
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Funnily enough I was looking at him earlier, you have just given me more confidence, thank you SW l shall take a more serious look and check out prices again
 
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I like Angus and I like the horse. Would think you’d get the price he is now on the day though - and with more places?
 
Garrison Savannah said:
I like Angus and I like the horse. Would think you’d get the price he is now on the day though - and with more places?
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I thought that too.
Not the kind of horse that will definitely shorten.
Although it could happen as someone of note could put him up (more of note than the warrior ?) not even possible is it ?:encouragement:
 
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....for anybody interested, Hold the Note is 14-1 Hills for this (bits of 16-1 elsewhere, 14-1 NRNB), but it’s still on offer @ 22-1 (with boost) in Hills a/r market.

Looks an anomaly they haven’t spotted as yet.
 
Eggs said:
....for anybody interested, Hold the Note is 14-1 Hills for this (bits of 16-1 elsewhere, 14-1 NRNB), but it’s still on offer @ 22-1 (with boost) in Hills a/r market.

Looks an anomaly they haven’t spotted as yet.
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May also be worth pointing out the lack of extra places you get for any race, as opposed to the actual race market itself, for those playing E/W.

Obviously doesn't affect the win only backers.
 
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Eggs said:
....for anybody interested, Hold the Note is 14-1 Hills for this (bits of 16-1 elsewhere, 14-1 NRNB), but it’s still on offer @ 22-1 (with boost) in Hills a/r market.

Looks an anomaly they haven’t spotted as yet.
Click to expand...

You greedy buggers:surprise::surprise:. In to 12/1 now
 
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The Irish have only 8 horses in the initial entries in the Kim Muir, they rarely have many at final decs, but 8 at Initial entries seems very low, possibility the proximity of the Fairyhouse meeting, and the EUR 400,000 Irish Grand National has impacted more this season, allied to the small first prize of ?31,133 for the Kim Muir.

The Irish entries are, prices and Irish handicap ratings, are:

8/1 Run Wild Fred (140) - also entered in the Ultima & National Hunt Chases
16/1 Plan Of Attack (137) - also entered in the Ultima Chase
16/1 Mount Ida (139) - new first chase rating issued today (also entered in the Mares Chase)
25/1 Braeside (133) - also entered in the National Hunt Chase
33/1 Go Another One (139) - also entered in the Coral Cup and Martin Pipe hurdles
--------------------
25/1 Thermistocles (131)
33/1 Magiloney (127)
33/1 Young Dev (122)

The bottom three of the eight are probably unlikely to make the cut, maybe a 4th one too - Braeside - unless he gets at least 2lb, or more, UK tax.

There are over 40 British runners rated 135+ in the entries.

All of the top 5 weighted Irish entries are engaged elsewhere at the Festival too.

Even though the Irish have a joint favourite here, Run Wild Fred, looking at the prices of the four or 5 they have that might make the cut, and come over its long-odds on that the UK should have the upperhand here.

Traditionally the Irish horses that do run, in recent years, have outperformed their chances, and won 4 of the last 7 runnings, in the last decade.



 
Run Wild Fred entered in the Leinster National run the Sunday before the festival (14th March) - I’ve cashed out my bets as just don’t see the O’Learys giving a crap about running him at Cheltenham with trainer & jockey issues
 
Splinterboy82 said:
Run Wild Fred entered in the Leinster National run the Sunday before the festival (14th March) - I’ve cashed out my bets as just don’t see the O’Learys giving a crap about running him at Cheltenham with trainer & jockey issues
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Gordon could be banned by then!

Switcheroo, off to Cheltenham we go

Aye aye!!



In all seriousness, its perfectly sensible to keep options open given what has happened this week.
 
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Splinterboy82 said:
Run Wild Fred entered in the Leinster National run the Sunday before the festival (14th March) - I’ve cashed out my bets as just don’t see the O’Learys giving a crap about running him at Cheltenham with trainer & jockey issues
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Do you know if those entries are from today, or if they have been out for a while?

Looking at them, and the betterprize money in that race, there probably wont be any Irish runners in the Kim Muir.

For RWF and others - will O'Leary throw his toys out of the pram re the BHA banning Gordon (at this time) and find alternatives in Ireland for most of his?
 
Saxon Warrior said:
For RWF and others - will O'Leary throw his toys out of the pram re the BHA banning Gordon (at this time) and find alternatives in Ireland for most of his?
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That has to be the concern.
You're not dealing with professional balanced people here, most of what he does is to satisfy his huge need for attention and there's no way he has the ability to look at all options and make considered decisions sadly.
Just as sadly it brings total chaos to the ante post markets and I know I won't be alone in building bets around specific Elliott/Giggs handicap plots...
 
I really can’t see any purpose in Gigginstown pitching in with Elliot and holding their horses back from Cheltenham in protest.
They weren’t in the photo!

Its like me requesting to share the fine for speeding that my mate got while I was at home - because he’s a good bloke.
 
Milbear0 said:
I really can’t see any purpose in Gigginstown pitching in with Elliot and holding their horses back from Cheltenham in protest.
They weren’t in the photo!

Its like me requesting to share the fine for speeding that my mate got while I was at home - because he’s a good bloke.
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Knob-eds though aren't they ?

FWIW, I reckon they'll send some but not as many as planned.
 
Saxon Warrior said:
Do you know if those entries are from today, or if they have been out for a while?

Looking at them, and the betterprize money in that race, there probably wont be any Irish runners in the Kim Muir.

For RWF and others - will O'Leary throw his toys out of the pram re the BHA banning Gordon (at this time) and find alternatives in Ireland for most of his?
Click to expand...

Popped up in my tracker as an entry today so must have closed either today or yesterday would be my guess....
 
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