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Fulke Walwyn KIM MUIR Challenge Cup Amateur Riders Handicap

Saxon Warrior said:
That’s in line with the rest, more or less now.

The interesting point on that price is that Longhouse Poet beat Run Wild Fred over 3M1F (Heavy) on his last start, and would only have to give him 1lb if they ran in an Irish handicap, yet he is 16/1 B365, and 14/2 NRNB for the Kim Muir.

Given this recent form link and RWF’s 140 mark for the UK, it could be construed that Longhouse Poet would get a similar UK mark to his Irish mark of 141.
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Would you mind helping a novice FJ out, Saxon? Do you think the revised Irish rating of 144 would mean Minella Times and Farclas would likely be raised above the ceiling for this race by the UK handicapper?
 
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Saxon Warrior said:
What is true regarding ESCARIA TEN, is that Gordon does seem to want to run him in a handicap.

He wouldn’t keep entering him in the UK, if he just wanted to go to the National Hunt Chase.

His owner sponsors the Ultima, so if (as expected) he gets a 147 mark, then the only handicap for him to enter, would be his owners race.

At least entering in England this week would nail-down if he has no UK tax on his 147 Irish mark - which in itself would be a bonus for them.
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Cant see him being under 150 ..does he have an Irish mark ?
 
His Irish rating is definitely 147.
 
To see if he's still 147 on the revised mark, knowing it was supposed to be 145.

Baiscally,. the UK capper can't now really raise him over 147 can he, his hands are tied?



He's going to run off his Irish mark in the Ultima.... so Gordon's bad record in that ends.
 
Kevloaf said:
To see if he's still 147 on the revised mark, knowing it was supposed to be 145.

Baiscally,. the UK capper can't now really raise him over 147 can he, his hands are tied?



He's going to run off his Irish mark in the Ultima.... so Gordon's bad record in that ends.
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Maybe that 145 was a generic +5 to his 140 before being fully reassessed

And that is why Gordon has re entered

He surely won't be below his Irish mark
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
Maybe that 145 was a generic +5 to his 140 before being fully reassessed

And that is why Gordon has re entered

He surely won't be below his Irish mark
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If he's 147 UK, massive Ultima bet..... any Irish horse off their Irish mark is well in by default.
 
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Grinch said:
its a good mark for sure ..with more to come
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If it stays at 147.

I wouldn't say he's got more than 7lbs in hand of that....
 
O thought he was another 'Unsinkable Boxer' off the first rating of 150 posted on Racing Post.

UB would gave won easily off 7lb more, so if I keep my opinion constant then 147 in the Ultima should be a decent bet.
 
Saxon Warrior said:
O thought he was another 'Unsinkable Boxer' off the first rating of 150 posted on Racing Post.

UB would gave won easily off 7lb more, so if I keep my opinion constant then 147 in the Ultima should be a decent bet.
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Escaria Ten? Unsinkable Boxer?


You think they have the same profile?




For me, Escaria Ten is good, and improved, and will have a chance off 147 (if that's what he runs off) as he's we;ll in off his Irish mark....


I don't tink he's got LOADS in hand by any stretch at all.... he's never going to be a G1 animal. The angle in the Ultima will be that he's "well in" off his Irish mark, not that plus he's also 7 lbs well in!
 
Kevloaf said:
Escaria Ten? Unsinkable Boxer?


You think they have the same profile?




For me, Escaria Ten is good, and improved, and will have a chance off 147 (if that's what he runs off) as he's we;ll in off his Irish mark....


I don't tink he's got LOADS in hand by any stretch at all.... he's never going to be a G1 animal. The angle in the Ultima will be that he's "well in" off his Irish mark, not that plus he's also 7 lbs well in!
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It was last Tuesday euphoria quote when he got 140. :disgust:

Only lasted 24 hours or so, until the reality of one then another weight rise, 145 then 147 was applied/implied, and the comparison became a little tattered.

I would back him off 147 to beat the British horses, plus a few Irish ones,

We will see his true rating tomorrow, and Gordon is keen to find out with a view to a handicap run, isn’t he?
(and Gordon is the handicap king).
(and the owners sponsor the Ultima)

yada, yada, yada........:barbershop_quartet_member:
 
Saxon Warrior said:
It was last Tuesday euphoria quote when he got 140. :disgust:

Only lasted 24 hours or so, until the reality of one then another weight rise, 145 then 147 was applied/implied, and the comparison became a little tattered.

I would back him off 147 to beat the British horses, plus a few Irish ones,

We will see his true rating tomorrow, and Gordon is keen to find out with a view to a handicap run, isn’t he?
(and Gordon is the handicap king).
(and the owners sponsor the Ultima)

yada, yada, yada........:barbershop_quartet_member:
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There is a HUGE difference in being half a stone well in though?

The excitement and comparison to Unthinkable Boxer was surely that he was 140.... knowing he's nearer 150....

At 147, he's still a decent bet, but you know as well as I do... (as you've said) the nap of the week,.... to a decent bet.... it's changed loads....

You can't still believe he's the bet of the meeting, as you said at the time!
 
Saxon Warrior said:
It was last Tuesday euphoria quote when he got 140. :disgust:

Only lasted 24 hours or so, until the reality of one then another weight rise, 145 then 147 was applied/implied, and the comparison became a little tattered.

I would back him off 147 to beat the British horses, plus a few Irish ones,

We will see his true rating tomorrow, and Gordon is keen to find out with a view to a handicap run, isn’t he?
(and Gordon is the handicap king).
(and the owners sponsor the Ultima)

yada, yada, yada........:barbershop_quartet_member:
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Was such an epic day(s) that, Escaria Ten will have to go some on the racecourse to displace this memory of him as the wrongly rated 140 horse that cost me two 365 accounts :applouse:
 
Kevloaf said:
There is a HUGE difference in being half a stone well in though?

The excitement and comparison to Unthinkable Boxer was surely that he was 140.... knowing he's nearer 150....

At 147, he's still a decent bet, but you know as well as I do... (as you've said) the nap of the week,.... to a decent bet.... it's changed loads....

You can't still believe he's the bet of the meeting, as you said at the time!
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Of course not :teapot:, off 140 he was thrown in.:onthego: though.

He was one of Gordon Elliott’s Martin Pipe brigade last year, only 15th though.
 
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Saxon Warrior said:
Of course not :teapot:, off 140 he was thrown in.:onthego: though.

He was one of Gordon Elliott’s Martin Pipe brigade last year, only 15th though.
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That's what I said? "The excitement and comparison to Unthinkable Boxer was surely that he was 140.... knowing he's nearer 150...."


I'm already on in the Ultima, (hoping that 147 will stick).... if it doesn't, I'll probably cash....as he's not got much in hand off 147. IMO
 
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