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Fred Winter 2018

Kevloaf said:
Cheers Rob. Probably in short backs up my theory that the 25/1 is priced on the Sire rather than the horses ability.
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I've had a little nibble at Act Of Valour at 33s for this. Would seem the logical route to go, especially if Sao comes out and impresses and aims towards the triumph. Happy to take the risk Nicholls will line him up for this at those odds, and Scooby's insight into yard confidence suggests he has another big performance in him somewhere, as his effort first time out shows
 
This race has been kind to me over the years following Nicholls french recruits at decent prices, last year I struggled to get an angle on the race so I changed tactic and followed the pedigree of the horse which I was convinced was going to have a win at the festival in this case it was soldier of fortune.
Which narrowed it down to 3 runners in this race and dickie on board flying tiger was a bonus. It will be interesting again to see if nick Williams has any
Entered for this race. I do bk alot in this race so any profit does get eaten up if I manage to find the winner.
 
I had my first bet today for this race - Nayati 25-1 with w. Hills , saw a mention at the weekend on S'life or R.post ? .
 
Davy Russell said Espoir D'allen is his "most exciting" horse trhat he has seen this season... a little left-field, but if that is true, and they think a lot of Mitchouka, could he be the Fred Winter Elliott horse?

Only 14/1 NRNB but seemed an odd horse for Russell to talk up?
 
What do we think to Gumball in this now after dropping to 140 after the weekend?

33s NRNB on WH.
 
Adam93 said:
What do we think to Gumball in this now after dropping to 140 after the weekend?

33s NRNB on WH.
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Still too high? Most horses that place in Fred Winter are mid 130s and below from memory
 
Robbante said:
Still too high? Most horses that place in Fred Winter are mid 130s and below from memory
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I agree, would still be too high for me but wouldn't be surprised if he ends up here and could be a player. Certainly wouldn't be 30s!
 
Not sure about placed horses but the highest OR winner so far in 13 editions is last season's, Flying Tiger, off 134.
 
archie said:
Not sure about placed horses but the highest OR winner so far in 13 editions is last season's, Flying Tiger, off 134.
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Divin Bere must be one of the higher places off 139 last year
 
Anyone know what rating Farclas has for this race ?
 
Just to clarify, WilliamHill are Non Runner Insurance which is different. Cheeky of them.

I think 33s is still value in this though. Think he can jump better on good ground with a bit of pace and they might even throw some sort of headgear on him? He was 10s for the Triumph at one point with WilliamHill so they've lost faith in him :D He has scope for improvement though. Even on his Chepstow win they clocked a slow time in the first 2 furlongs which didnt help his jumping. Same can be said about his run in France.

And Voix Du Reve (139) and Campeador (141) both traded under evens coming up to the last when they fell in 2016. Golden Doyen (141) was top weight and travelling well enough the year before until he fell 4 out.
 
Minefield of a race from ante post view point , hard to fathom out if they come here. More plots than an allotment so personally will wait for the day before playing.
 
Just seen Farclas has a rating of 129
Should be no problem getting in here
1 1/4 lengths off Espoir dallen certainly good form
 
Liammet said:
Just seen Farclas has a rating of 129
Should be no problem getting in here
1 1/4 lengths off Espoir dallen certainly good form
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You sure thats not his rpr it wouldn't be the norm to give him a rating after 1 run.
You'll see after the spring juvenile if he's up to going for the triumph or not.
 
Liammet said:
Thanks scooby
Does that mean he will have to run again to get a rating ?
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They can request one and see if 1 is given. But the norm would be to go onto the spring juvenile and see where he's at.
Usually 3 runs warrants your mark
 
Scooby91 said:
They can request one and see if 1 is given. But the norm would be to go onto the spring juvenile and see where he's at.
Usually 3 runs warrants your mark
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Thanks for the info
Do his runs in France count ?
 
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