Is the favourite not massively overpriced here at 8/1 still?
I’m on him at bigger (12s I believe) but after his main rivals in the betting all got beat at Down Royal yesterday, I expected him to have shortened to nearer 11/2. Not a lot of horses go back to Cheltenham after winning the fox hunters and win at the April meeting and he did. Even more impressively was the fire conditions at Cheltenham that day.
Back in March he was a clear cut winner and ran his rivals ragged. A lot of winners of that race come from far back but he led from start to finish impressively. Before that he had an excellent pointing record (was on a 8 race winning streak at the time wasn’t he?).
I’m going to have to go back in at 8s because I have to think that it’s a bit of value from everything we know about the race. That’s the benefit with this race, we know the likely field for most of the season. There’s not going to be any massively surprising runners diverted to this that we hadn’t expected. I was deep in this race in 2018 with Burning Ambition as a lot of the forum may remember. But I really believe Hazel Hill wins this again this year.
Hazel Hill @ 8/1