FJ Day Four Festival Yankee - manager ryan97

[Kevloaf]

If that is the case, then what is the price about for My Tent Or Yours? TNO has never finished ahead of MTOY at the festival, yet finds himself a 50/1.

They've both beat each other over the years, but this is the festival, and that form counts for a lot for me.

Should be 25/1. Is 50/1 NRNB?

 

[Kevloaf]

I'm interested to see if After Rain gets an entry in the county or Martin Pipe.

Becoming a cliff horse for me :highly_amused:

Depending on whether it is a win only or each way bet, I'd be happy with DDS or Mega Fortune. Opposite to FM, I have DDS covered myself but only a smallish single on Mega Fortune.



No-one has mentioned the Gold Cup yet...

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Should be 25/1. Is 50/1 NRNB?

Not NRNB Kev, no. But everything I have seen points to him going for this race again.

 

[Istabraq]

That's the thing, if MTOY is confirmed for this his price will contract and he'll end up shorter than TNO, at the moment we know the Twisters horse goes for the CH, no guarantees have been given about Hendo's charge.
It'll all look different in 3 weeks...

 

[ComplyOrDie]

That's the thing, if MTOY is confirmed for this his price will contract and he'll end up shorter than TNO, at the moment we know the Twisters horse goes for the CH, no guarantees have been given about Hendo's charge.
It'll all look different in 3 weeks...

Hopefully that is the case Ista

 

[Kevloaf]

Wasn't sure why we are talking about the wrong day, then realised it is my fault for mentioning TNO *wooops*

So, Gold Cup - Native River... good chance of winning, still just about an each way price?

 

[loveracing]

I received a word a week or so ago that CC is the one to be on.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Wasn't sure why we are talking about the wrong day, then realised it is my fault for mentioning TNO *wooops*

So, Gold Cup - Native River... good chance of winning, still just about an each way price?

Prefer Djakadam myself, but I guess you could pick any number of horses in the race as it seems pretty wide open, but for me the horse who has at least finished 2nd twice in 2 Gold Cups is the value for me. It's a gruelling race that many of the others wouldn't have experienced in their careers yet.

 

[Kevloaf]

Djakadam was far too big at the price he was, I have backed him accordingly and he would be my best result in the GC... however you can see him being behind all 3 Tizzard horses though on his form this season?

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Djakadam was far too big at the price he was, I have backed him accordingly and he would be my best result in the GC... however you can see him being behind all 3 Tizzard horses though on his form this season?

On form this season yes, on all known form, no, on all form at Cheltenham, no.

I don't really want to be negative about Native River, but I see so many holes in the horses he has beat that I can't be confident about him, I'd happily congratulate all that backed him should he go on and prove me wrong in the race, but before the race, I can't be having him, especially at that price. He should be with Outlander in terms of price, maybe slightly bigger.

Just to pick out one piece, run a line through Smad Place, NR was getting 11lbs in the Hennessy from SP and finished 9 3/4 lengths in front of him, on ground you would want a little softer for SP too, then SP faced Thistlecrack & Many Clouds on ideal soft ground and was smashed 17 lengths off levels. Now I know you can't take form literally, but that alone gives NR some work to do, but there are more holes than just this one line, this was one example.

Personally I think the Tizzards have placed him brilliantly this season and hats off to them for doing so, but races that initially looked OK, have turned out to be pretty weak.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Djakadam was far too big at the price he was, I have backed him accordingly and he would be my best result in the GC... however you can see him being behind all 3 Tizzard horses though on his form this season?

I can't see him beating any Tizzard horse and he is the one I have started laying win and place. Couldn't even beat Don Poli at Leopardstown, and I doubt he will at Cheltenham.

 

[Kevloaf]

I can't see him beating any Tizzard horse and he is the one I have started laying win and place. Couldn't even beat Don Poli at Leopardstown, and I doubt he will at Cheltenham.

I'll be laying him off for a free bet I think. Will wait to see if the rain is coming though... if it rains I would want my full amount on.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I can't see him beating any Tizzard horse and he is the one I have started laying win and place. Couldn't even beat Don Poli at Leopardstown, and I doubt he will at Cheltenham.

If we are taking form literally we can question every horse in the race. I do look for real excuses for horses that lose, not excuses just to suit a debate or opinion, and the only real excuse I have for Djakadam for the race at Leopardstown was that it came too soon after a really tough win in the John Durkan.

His form, all bar the one run at Newbury, though this was on the back of a fall, is very much at its best when fresh, and this time around he has been given longer (by about a month) than previous years to be ready for the Gold Cup this season.

I may be well wrong of course, it happens, haha, but I do think he'll go close this time around.

 

[Kevloaf]

If we are taking form literally we can question every horse in the race. I do look for real excuses for horses that lose, not excuses just to suit a debate or opinion, and the only real excuse I have for Djakadam for the race at Leopardstown was that it came too soon after a really tough win in the John Durkan.
.

Problem with that point, is that Outlander was in both races and turned the form around.

However, Djakadam had a poor prep last year with the fall and as an 8YO I think FM is being bold to place lay him... I think you can argue he sets the standard on the last 2 Gold Cups. (Same argument would maybe suggest Cue Card is better/similar) but Thistlecrack isn't proven over the extra distance (technically) and his jumping isn't the ideal (too bold, not economical) and has been out battled LTO. Native River has won two weak looking handicaps and got beat at Cheltenham (albeit in a decent looking race). I think you can argue that T and NR need to improve on Djakadams previous run AND that doesn't factor in that Djakadam might be primed to run his best ever race... I wouldn't lay Djakadam on soft ground

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm glad to see some positive words from others regarding Djakadam, I thought I was alone

I do take the Outlander words on board, my only thing regarding that is purely that some horses react better running a race so soon after another, Djakadam definitely is not one of them horses

 

[ryanh97]

The gold cups such a tough one to call. If people make good enough arguments for 4 other races then I will be well inclined to leave it out and let us all enjoy

 

[loveracing]

The Storyteller 10/1 - Martin Pipe

I don't have a story behind him. Its just a whisper.

 

[robith]

The gold cups such a tough one to call. If people make good enough arguments for 4 other races then I will be well inclined to leave it out and let us all enjoy

I reckon swerving the Gold Cup for this is pretty sensible

 

[loveracing]

Renneti 25/1 for the County? We know WM likes this race.

 

[ryanh97]

I reckon swerving the Gold Cup for this is pretty sensible

It makes sense to me. Its one of those races that id be happy to leave out and we can all enjoy it with our own books